Saturday, November 3, 2012

Reversal and Exit of Swing Trade

Is she crying again ? >  New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg abruptly reversed course and canceled Sunday's marathon, a beloved annual race that had become a lightning rod for people frustrated by the disastrous aftermath of megastorm Sandy.

I my opinion it was a very bad judgement by this millionare NYC Major to even consider the event.
No sencitivity what so ever. Always thinking of dollars instead of placing the priority on charity and human dignity.

You get what you deserve New Yorkers ! for electing a millionaire for a City Mayor , clearly NOT a representative of the 60% of poor people that live in that city. HELLO ! Mr Millionare Mayor !, were was your head at ? ! ! ! > same as the Republican Party out of touch with reality and blinded by arrogance.

Two bad Omens for Mitt Romney , first his ignorant remarks about the 47% of voters and second NYC Mayor's bad judgement.

JaguarTrader ( StocksTwits ) aka TraderTopGun

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Swing Trade Update

Friday , November 02 - Swing Tade Update:

Today was a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day signal for today after yesterday’s big rally, and my Propriatery Cycle Indicator ( P C I ) confirmed that we should anticipate a sale today. In addition to what the TTT said we might expect a correction today in a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade today.

The market ran out of steam shortly after the 9:30 est stock market open (it’s often a turning point), falling through the reference key level prices and reaching the overnight double bottom low of 1420.25. It found support a bit under there and has since traded sideways through early afternoon.
If you were following my swing trade today or if you had your fill of trading for the week you could have wrapped up the week by mid-morning.

Target number 6 was reached at 1431 and booked for another + 37.50pts and exited the rest at 1425 for + 31.50 pts booked on the final lot > Total pts for this Swing Trade : + 176.25 pts


4:55pm > Update : Fifth Target filled and booked at 1425 for + 31.50 pts booked profits

Final Target : 1433.25 > Globex High is now 1425.50 < 4:55pm est > Nov 1st


10:42am Update : Fourth Target Reached , filled and booked for + 29 pts <

Thursday, November 1st >  Long @ 1393.50 now trading at 1409.50 > 8:49am


The Lady stands after all and life goes on in the big city.

7:00am Swing Trade Update :  Long from 1393.50

Third Target reached as expected : + 12.50 pts booked again > Total Profits : + 46.75 pts

Thank You Sandy ( Hurricane ) and thank you for all the Shorts ( StocksTwits ) that took the wrong position, keep shorting , thanks

JaguarTrader ( StocksTwits )

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Hurricane Sandy Swing Trade Wins

6:00pm Update : Second Target filled and booked + 19 pts , Total : + 34.25 pts

Long from 1393.50 <  Key Level > 1393.25 and LVN > + 15.25 pts booked

Swing Trade Setup : 

> MACD  Double Divergence at Key Institutional Level
> False Breakout " FAKEY " Setup after an Inside Day

> Weekly 38.2 % Fibonacci Retracement

 > Short covering fueled rally on low volume as expected and  predicted

Hoping that the folks on the US East Coast are safe and warm. The ES Market is closed for a second day while Globex is moving along fine.

JaguarTrader ( StocksTwits )

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Swing Position Update

3pm est > Done for the Day

Scenario number 2 is now complete . Nothing beats a plan when trading. Can't express it enough
how important this part of trading is to you success.You always have to expect the unexpected from
this markets.

The number 2 scenario did not reached its target, therefore the necessary course of action according to the trade plan emailed to subscribers was implemented.The market followed scenario # 2 as predicted and that was another option in the trade plan.

Price action failed to find support at the key level zones and a reversal of trade was initiated.

11:50am > The 2nd Scenario playing out as suggested premarket. Approaching 1399.50 target as predicted. Target achieved now.

It is odvious that the stop loss orders hunting game continues in this market

Complete Trade Plan available upon request to non-subscribers.


The ES failed to make a new low after the FED Day and is trading above the Line In the Sand Zone :
in this Three Days Profile > 1410.75 to 1411.25 < Bear / Bull Zone.

9:00am > Notice how the Key Zone held after the Economic report reaction. Two scenarios at the open today :

1. Will open and drop to the 1409.75 VPOC and the 1409.25 to  1407.50 high volume zone OR

2. After the Open it will auction down through all the key levels and find support at the Key Institutional level : 1399.50

3. Will Open and go UP to 1417 to 1420 Key Resistance Zone OR

4. Will Open and go sideways above the Two Days Zone and then breakout.

Long @ 1399.75 < S 1 and Key Level

Monday, October 22, 2012

New Short Position

Thursday , October 25 -Holding Open Long Swing Position at 1405

Swing Trade Setup : same as Tuesday > see below . Target : 1422.50


Wed - October 24 : New Position

9:06am Update : Took profits at 1414.50 < Prev Day High > Done for the Day

9am Update : > Holding Open Long Swing Position 1405.00

04:22am - Long 1405 > Trade Setup same as below


7:24pm est Update :  Target filled and booked for + 16 Pts > Long @ 1417 < Closed trade at 1426

Setup for this Trade : MACD  4 Hour Bullish Divergence
                                      RSI ( 2 ) Market Timing Strategy : Day 3
                                      Key Institutional Level
                                      Cycle Indicator Oversold Reading

1:48pm Long @ 1417 < Key Institutional Level posted before the Open < Another Winner


1:42pm Update : Final Target achieved as predicted, booked profits : + 14pts plus 12.50 Pts
Total Profits on this trade : 26.50 Pts

11:20am est Update : Second target hit and booked for another + 8 pts > Short @ 1431
Looks like the Institutional Level worked as expected, Cheers !

Total Profits : +12.50 pts plus the previous Long , not posted.

8:15am - Update :  Took profits + 4.50 pts booked > Short @ 1431

5:50am SOLD Short @ 1431 > 1431.25 Key Institutional Level > 1430 is the 50 Day MA

Trade Setup : Daily Reversal WR Bar , 23.6 % Retracement of Fri Range , Key Level Resistance in Globex pre-open session.

Expected Final ( Dessert ) Target : 1417

1439.50 < Key Bull / Bear Level
1431.25 < Institutional Level
1430     < 50 Day MA
1424.50 < Must hold this level after the Open
1423.50 < Prev Day ( Friday ) Low
1422.50 < VPOC > Fri - Oct 12 < Will bounce here
1421    < CLVN
 1418.75 <
 1417 Key Level

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Short Covering in the Bond Market

Flight to quality rally and short covering provided another winning trade using my proprietary cycle indicator.The trade entry was not posted due to a very busy schedule on other business matters.

Google's earnings miss on Thursday was followed Friday by misses from three Dow components:

General Electric, Microsoft, McDonald's. Soft European demand is the general complaint so far of the third-quarter earnings season. But not a complaint is domestic residential housing though existing home sales did dip back in September, but only slightly relative to very strong gains in the two prior months.

The Dow ended near its lows, down a very steep 1.5 percent to 13,343. Demand for safety is reappearing with buyers bidding down Treasury yields, to 1.77 percent for the 10-year for a 7 basis point decline on the day. Demand for safety helped give a 0.3 percent boost to the dollar index. Oil fell a sizable $2 to $90 with gold down $20 to $1,720.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Options Expiration Friday Review

This chart is only the first 2 hours of trading in 30min Bars with the most significant levels and only one trade entry Short.The targets for that entry is not shown.

This Options Expiration was very unusual in that it exceeded the average range of previous Opt Exp Days.

The pre-opening bias was bullish for many traders and the 20 Day SMA and the 38.2% Fib was expected to be supported but it did not.

There was some clues on the first 30mins of trading shown on this chart. There was a very heavy accumulation of stops loss orders below 1446.50 and 1439.50. Both levels were penetrated and a Spike in Volume occurred.The High Volume Zone from 1446.25 to 1444.25 from Oct 16 was violated and that was another important clue that Bears had absolute overwhelming control.

The GAP left on Oct 16 from 1436.75 to 1440.75 ( S 2 ) was filled on the second hour and 1436.75 inside the Gap was the Key Level to watch. There was a 2 points bounce or retracement at this level.

On the Third Hour it found support at 1430.75 and bounce or retraced 3.75 pts after an hour of consolidation sideways range and failing to penetrate above the 1434 Key Level. The key levels here were : 1434,  1431.75 < Weekly Pivot and the 1430 < Monthly Pivot, so 1431 was an important level that held for one hour.

The short squeeze and stop loss orders hunting game continues till after the presidential election as predicted 30 days ago on StockTwits.

JaguarTrader ( StocksTwits )

Friday, October 19, 2012

Opt Exp Day

1:30pm est Final Update : Lower targets filled and booked - Done for the Day - Have a good weekend

11:24am - Once 1443.25 Key level did not hold , Sold it after the break of 1443.25 on the retracement to it . Did not have time to post the trade.

10:51 Long again at 1441.75 < out at break even

10:34am > Long again at 1443 < out at small loss - .50 ( 1443.25 Key Level )

10:22 - Filled at 1442.25 < Long , out at break even

9:46am est > Will buy 1442 > 9:59am Will Sell 1446.50

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Back to Trading desk

2:50pm est - Done for the Day

Trading Futures involves substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for all investors. Trades posted and comments are not trade recommendations.Use stop loss always.

1:54pm - In retrospect looking back at the intraday price action the 1454.50 Floor Pivot became
more improtant level than the 1457. This is why is very important to go back very quickly and reassess the developing action to learn from recent mistakes, and then take the trade setup.

One more trade setup was taken but due to technical reasons including an unespected electrical power outage I was not able to post the entry.The very tight stop loss save my early winnings.Always use a very small stop, low risk at key levels.If it doesn't work then reassess.

11:46am - Power Out at my residence ! Stop Loss hit > Loss .50 pts

11:40am Will sell 1456.75 > 1457 is a Key Level

10:39am - No fill on second target, exited Short for total : + 9 pts booked profits

10:15am - Booked + 4pts on first target filled . Note: Bad slippage on entry due to the economic report, but direction was correct.

10:03am est > SOLD 1455.50 and 1456.25

Will buy 1450.50 or Will Sell 1455 , now trading at 1452.50 < 9:34am est

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

New Entry Short after Long Exit

Wednesday, October 17 Update : ZBZ12 < 30yr T-Bonds Futures > Short @ 149.15

Third Target filled and booked at 147.17 for + 62 Ticks = $1,937.50

Closed Position Total Profits : $ 4, 031.25

Arthur ,
Agree with the annoying catcha, if you want to avoid that you could post your comment faster on StockTwits and address it to @JaguarTrader.


10:28pm est - ZBZ12 < 30 yr T-Bonds Update :

Open Swing Position :   Short from 149.15 Monday > first target was hit and booked + $ 437.50 or 14 tics.
Second Target :  Filled and Booked for + 53 Ticks or $ 1,656.25

Total Profits :  + $ 2,093.75

Trade Setup : Overbought condition from proprietary cycle indicator

JaguarTrader ( StockTwits )


3:10pm est - Second target hit and booked for another + 4 pts plus the Long going up ,
Totals : 26 pts > Done for the day. Short Open position left to run.

2:14pm Back from Lunch and Beach walk, nice weather.

Looks like the short is in the money + 2 pts booked and target is near, will be back to sip the champange and toast to another winner...

Will Sell 1449.50 < ES < Filled Sold 1449.50 > Sold second entry at 1450.50 < 12:15pm

Break for Lunch

Monday, October 15, 2012

Market Status

2:15pm Update : There was another setup in the afternoon but did not have time to type it here.

Price Action Recap : The ES opened at 1426.50 and immidietely touched  the VAH at 1428.25 where it did a reversal and that number happened to be the low of the Reaction to the Retail Sales Report at 8:30am est. <  < this was anticipated by the clue given earlier, read below -to be continued...

Hey ! Arthur from Utah, did you do any trades today in the ES ? hope you getting some value out of this post.


10:36am Update : Second Target hit and filled at 1423.50 and Third target booked at 1422.25
Total profits : + 13.75 pts


9:00am Update : Notice how the Retail Sales Report came out very positive, yet the ES reversed to down after a UP price spike of only 1.25 pts and a spike in volume. This reaction is a clue of what will happened later at the open. A classic High Volume Reversal Trade,

Open Position : SHORT @ 1430 and 1428.75 , booked + 3 pts and looking for 1423.50


8:30am Update : Sold 1430 will add at 1428.75 > test of 1429 Key Level < Sold 8:45am

Short Swing Position :  ZBZ12 ( 30 yr T-Bonds ) from 149.15 > First Target was hit and booked + $ 437.50 or 14 tics.
Overbought Setup from cycle indicator worked as expected for a nice easy profit.


Monday-Oct 15 - 6:00am Update :

The ES has been trading between 1426.75 and 1429 for more than 4 hours which clearly indicates how important this zone is.

Long from 1416.75 < took profits at 1428.75 booked + 12 pts


8:26pm Sunday - Oct 14 :

The ES is trading tonight at a key trend line support while showing a divergence on the MACD key chart, if you have been following my previous posts, you should know which one.

The Sunday night Globex action has found support at : S 1 < 1416.50

My current position is Long from 1416.75, will take profits if it gets to 1423.50 and will initiate a short position there,if it does not hold, looking for a new low of 1412 to 1411.

                                1434 < Key Level
The key levels are : 1431
                                1429 < Key Level
                                1428.25 < VAH
                                1425.25 < Floor Pivot
                                1416.50 < S 1
                                1412 < Key Level

A positive Retail Sales report is expected but if it comes out weak it will push the market down.
The 30 year T-Bonds Futures will come down from overbought levels tonight , Sold 149.15 , it may retrace back up again during the day session.

Good trading,
JaguarTrader ( StocksTwits )

Saturday, September 29, 2012

Friday Price Action Review around Key Levels

Lots of trade setups during this session and looking at a new swing trade very soon.Will come back soon to explain, have a nice weekend.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Trade Plan for Today : New Swing trade

3:13pm est : Booked profits for another + 6.75 pts , Total on both positions : + 11.75 pts

3:10pm est Update : The ES is trading at 1459 on its way to target . . .while SriramaTanniru ( StockTwits ) sold at 1456 and LOST again  - 2.50 < Sold against the trend ? ! and he calls himself a " professional " ?

10:40am Update : Another Long Position added at Key Level 1452 < Long 1452.25

Now trading 1457.50 , booked profits + 5 pts

JaguarTrader ( StockTwits )

Yesterday was a NR 11 , very narrow day. The close was above the Opening Range but below the Pivot. B.O.J. Stimulus News pushed the market up to key Resistance .The ES is now trading above the previous Value Area. The Key Zone : 1452 to 1453.25 < Bullish Above , Bearish below.

As adviced to subscribers : " There is a strong probability that the ES will drop down as soon as it opens, due to the 30 year T-Bonds and the Dollar Index strong pre-market up trend." < exactly what happened

Expecting that key level above to be retested again today : Long from 1453.50

9:08am Update : Long positon in profit + 2 pts, scaled and booked, waiting for next target.

Trade Setup and Analysis :  Available Upon Request < Leave comment on this post if interested

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Steps To Better Emini Trading

  • What turned my trading around ?
  • Applicable to not only Emini Trading
  • Not a sales pitch for some " better " indicators
  • Will try to be specific, not just platitudes
  • Just my point of view - a trader with steady consistent income, not a guru
For someone that would like to start and have never done this before, my first suggestion :

                  Target a small daily profit ....Stop over trading ....Set a profit target of only 4 points
with one contract only and then continue every day for at least 20 days. One shot, one kill and stop trading for that day. Try to maintain the discipline and control the urge to keep trading for 20 days.

If there are two consecutive loss trades , then STOP and do not continue because the frame of mind will not be an edge or in the right mode.That's the strict discipline that must be maintain and honored.

The habit to control your instincts and emotions is the key for a beginner successful trader, if this can be achived early , then the path to consistency will follow.

Why 4 Points ?

In 15 years the range of the E-Mini S&P500 Futures has been an average of approximately 10 points.

4 Points = 30 % of Average Range in the past 15 years < an achievable objective with very little stress.

Go for singles NOT home runs. Use achievable profit targets, NOT trailing stops.
Don't care if the day's range was 25 points and you only took 4 points < you want to stay in the game
and work on the discipline and mind control !

Monday, September 10, 2012

Swing Position Wins - Update

Open Position  4:00pm est Update :    Short from 1437.50 now + 6.50 pts booked

Second Target Booked + 6.50 pts , Total : + 11.75 pts = $ 587.50 per contract

Waiting for Final Target .... Filled and booked + 9 pts < End of Trade :  + 20.75 pts Total


Here is Tip for you : If the ES doesn't retrace back down at least 50% by the end of Pit Lunch time around 1:30pm est , odds are that the ES will price a new extreme HOD after 3pm if not before.

12:14pm est Update : booked profits again + 3 pts for a total of + 5.25 pts. You missed a good one Ron ! , LOL

11:53am Update : Short @ 1437.50 , booked profits at 1435.25 for + 2.25 pts , now trading at 1434.75. Hey !, Ron from Long Beach, CA are you watching this ?. You should've sold it at VAH and get your money back after your loss trade ! LOL

11:30am est : SOLD Short  1437.50 , now trading at 1436 at 11:42am
Note : 1437.75 was VAH

Will SELL Limit Order : 1436.75 , now trading at 1436.25 - 11:22am est

10:57am est : SOLD  Short  1435.50 , now trading at 1434.75 , Stop : 1436.50 < hit for a loss : - 1 pt

10:00am Will SELL 1435.25 - at test of Key Institutional Level : 1435.50

Tuesday - Sept 11 - 7:00am : Will Sell 1432 , now trading at 1431.25 Globex High

8:50am est : Booked profits at 1429.50 for + 2.50 pts

7:28am est : SOLD 1432 < Took profits at 31 for + 1 pt


Open Position : Short @ 1436.50 initiated Sunday night Sept 09 - Globex Session

Trade Setup : See below - Fourth Target filled and booked at 1422.25 -  profits + 14.25 pts
 ( 1422 - S 1 and 38.2 % Fib ) Also  1422.50 is a CHVN

Total Profits scaled all targets hit: + 40.75 pts  Last Target : 1419 Key Level < Will reverse position to Long at that price during Globex ONLY. < NO Fill, Order Canceled

JaguarTrader ( StockTwits )  aka   TraderTopGun

New Swing Position

E-Mini S&P500 Futures ( ES ) :

Monday, Sept 10 - Update :

Short @ 1436.50 :  First target booked for + 4.75 pts  , Second Target filled and booked + 8.25 pts

Third Target : 1423 filled and booked for + 13.50 pts, Grand Total : + 26.50 pts


Sold Short @ 1436.50 with target at 1431.75 , Booked profits at 1433.50 + 3 pts

Trade Setup :

            60min  MACD Bearish Divergence and
            Proprietary Stochastic Reading of 97 on Sept 07
            RSI ( 2 ) Reading :  97

Will BUY duri ng Globex only( Limit Order )  at 1432 and 1431.50 with a stop at 1430.50 < NOT filled, canceled.

JaguarTrader ( StockTwits ), aka  TraderTopGun

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Swing Position Update - Home Run !

Long @ 1398 E-Mini S&P500 Futures : Sept

The 3rd Target: 1416.25  hit and booked for + 18.25

The 4th Target at 1419 :  was also hit and booked, took profits again + 21 pts

The Final Target at 1432 -  hit and booked profits + 34 pts

1430.25 was the R 4 and LVN  < The price action consolidation and accumulation for 4 Hours was a clue that it was going to breakout to new 52 Week High and short squeeze the late Shorts. 

Weekly Key Level: 1429 - May 20, 2008  and R4 at 1430.75

The Grand Total Profits for this Trade : + 99.25pts or $ 4,962.50 per contract

Done for this trade

I would like to thank all traders that took the WRONG position by Selling SHORT in StockTwits that made this possible :

" denichun " - Keeps building short, YEAH RIGHT ! ,  " Big_mike73 " , " bradha " - Bradley ,
" SriramaTanniru " - Amateur( novice ) < not aware of key levels, losses against the strong trend ! ( incompetent ), " upmkt5 " - Mark Michel < this guy has lost so many times and won't learn ! , " ChartMoMo "- Ryan Cormier < " I have lost 5 followers in 5 min by posting s&p 500 short trades " < Won't listen to the market trend ! "TexasTrader" < too many consecutive losses, won't improve,  UNBELIVABLE but true

The above should have had listened to this Trader : " soulfire " - " Bears should take note, the closer we move to elections, the less likely any major market plunge- more likely the opposite will occur"

Keep trading against the trend gentlemen ! LOL

JaguarTrader aka TraderTopGun

Monday, September 3, 2012

New Swing Position

Thursday - Sept 06 - Update:   

Open Position is now  GAIN : + 15 pts and Second Target reached and booked
Total profits now : + 26 Points = $ 1,300 per contract

Next Target : 1216.25

 At StockTwits < " JaguarTrader " < follow me there


Wednesday - Sept 05 - Swing Position Update :

Long ESU12 - Sept Futures E-Mini S$P500 @ 1398 since Aug 31

Open Position GAIN + 11 Point

Today's Price Action : N R 4 and Inside Day - Expected second target at 1412

Review : The ES Market opened and drop down to the 61.80% Fib at 1399.75 where it found support
as expected closing above the Key Institutional Level on the first 30 mins of trading.

On the second 30mins period the market tested the Key Level then it auctioned up to above the Globex High where it closed. Then on the second Hour it continued the uptrend up to the Key Resistance Level #1 at 1408.25 where a revesal took place down to below the Pivot where it closed.

 The Fourth 30min period the market droped and found support at the 50% Fib Level and reversed again closing above the Opening Range. After a Consolidation period of 2 Hours above the Opening Range until the 5th Hour where it droped again to the 61.80% Fib Level and closing above this level thus making a Double Bottom. So the Key price action clue was the holding of the 50% Fib Level.

End of Review - For Key levels follow me on Twitter or Leave an Message on this Post


Sunday, Sept 02

Back from a Summer long Scuba Diving and islands voyage through the Caribbean and Central America tropical Islands.

New Position in the E-Mini S&P500 Futures Sept ( ESU12 ) : Long 1398

11:30am - First Target hit and booked profits + 11 Pts = $550 per contract -
Open Position Long @ 1398

Next Target : 1412

These are comments from other Active Traders in StockTwits :
July 25
wtrans replied to your message
@JaguarTrader $ES_F, congratulations !
RonTyrer replied to your message July 15
$ES_F @JaguarTrader Awesome short at 1338. Want to share about 1335?
@JaguarTrader Nice trades all week
RonTyrer replied to your message
@JaguarTrader Perfect call of today's low. Great trade. I freely admit that I haven't been able to figure how you picked 1394.25 $ES_F
RonTyrer replied to your message
@JaguarTrader $ES_F Hey all you perma bulls and perma bears, this guy actually seems to know what he's talking about
wtrans replied to your message
@JaguarTrader $ES_F, U da Man, :)
Tomross58 replied to your message
@JaguarTrader Great job
Tomross58 mentioned you
@JaguarTrader you get a great ( price action ) read,,impressive !
Tomross58 mentioned you
@JaguarTrader OK,,,Where do I sign up for your class?,,I am trying to learn from you,,,thanks for sharing
OptionSniper replied to your message ( target hit )
dttmhouston mentioned you
@JaguarTrader $ES_F 1:17am -Will buy 1395.75 key level < Long 1395.75// nice, you're now in the $
Tomross58 mentioned you
@JaguarTrader Great trading Jaguar,,,is that who you would reccommend...
 Tomross58 mentioned you
@JaguarTrader great call
rsblades replied to your message
@JaguarTrader Well played trades both ways!
dttmhouston mentioned you
@JaguarTrader $ES_F + 4 booked, L@ 1407// you made killings here, good job
Tomross58 mentioned you
@JaguarTrader And thank you for sharing,,plz continue,,,when you make a call I always look to see why,,,thank you
RonTyrer replied to your message
@JaguarTrader Thanks for the insight today on $ES_F. Much appreciated.
LooseChange replied to your message
@JaguarTrader Hello New follower and was backtesting your calls. Impressive ! May I ask what time frame chart you are useing ? Thanks
Turkish replied to your message
@JaguarTrader you were correct. kudos to you sir. nothing bullish occurring---thus a neutral pattern
SriramaTanniru replied to your message
@MiniBot @JaguarTrader Right ;I don't have a crystal ball. But I'm happy Jaguar Trader has one & is able to foresee everything.  $ES_F ( This guy was getting jealous/envious of my ability to read and predict price action and thus made a negative comment because odviously he can't perform as well or he lacks what others have ) , Will forgive him.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Market Outlook

Both the ES and NQ broke out above the upper Key Areas and appear bent on continuing their rally higher. By the way, the market internals still continue to not confirm the move up. You can see how the ES traded significantly higher into the close on Friday. This suggests a strong market with the intention of follow through on Monday. However, the internals certainly did not confirm this.

The broad market ended flat to slightly higher . The NASDAQ 100 outperformed other indexes by climbing up 0.36% while the Russell 2000 lost 0.24%. Of the last 6 sessions, the S&P 500 has closed green 5 times. On the NASDAQ 100, we saw the 20th up-close in the last 26 sessions. The Russell 2000 are now down on 10 of the last 14 sessions as well. The NASDAQ 100 index climbed 0.36% (resulting in a weekly gain of 0.77%). The S&P 500 rose 0.17% (resulting in a weekly advance of 0.33%). The Dow lossed 0.02% (bringing its weekly gain to 0.25%).
The day ended with a daily volume of 2,186 million shares on the S&P 500. This volume was 19% less than the daily volume average of the past 3 months.

Negative money flow  would suggest the possibility of negative trading on Monday after the market open. Similar sentiment in money flow direction could be seen on the 30-day charts which would suggest the odds of having bearish trading session on Monday.

If the ES trades above Friday’s high on Monday, look for long entries, but stop the position below Friday’s high. This should not be traded through. If the ES does not have follow through on Monday, it suggests the move up on Friday was speculation and the entire range of Friday’s trading can be traded through. This would suggest a test of 1355 or 1352. Also, keep an eye on the NQ on the open on Monday. If it does not follow the ES higher, expect roation down.

 If the rotation down to test any lower Key Level is on low volume, look for long entries when those  are traded to. However, if any move to the downside has higher volume than you see in the rally in the 60min chart , then look for short entries. This would suggest the correction will last for at least a couple of days. The first intermediate timeframe Key Level to the downside to watch carefully is 1336 VPOC. If the rally is going to continue, this should hold.

Friday of last week the S&P made a high at 1367.50. This is only six points away from the high made on May 2, 2011. The technical and internal weaknesses of the market are exactly the same as May of last year. I get the feeling we have already experienced this before.

This does not necessarily mean we will have a selloff that begins on Monday. We very well could because the market is showing a lot of signs of topping. However, until the top has been confirmed, it is not time to short  this market. What is important to understand, especially those who are tired of trying to short a market that continues to rally on low volume, is the Stock Indices and in particular the S&P are at fourteen month extreme and the internal strength of the Indices is waning. This is not the type of environment in which long term bull markets begin from.

In fact, this is the type of environment in which large moves lower are made. Therefore, until you see volume increasing on the moves higher and breadth strengthening, use much caution to any long positions you have in the market.
I am very close to a 75% probability the market is close to or reaching at least an intermediate term top. The 25% probability of an alternate course could show up. If it does, we will see it first in breadth. That means there will be more and more companies trading higher as opposed to lower in each of the Indices. Currently, there are more and more trading lower. Next, we will see volume begin to increase on the moves higher, as more and more people are drawn to the market to buy those shares. Currently, we are seeing the opposite. Volume increases with the selling and declines with each attempt to push the market higher. Therefore, I am not bullish the market and will not be until I see the information from the market that tells me the 25% probability is beginning to occur. I will attempt very short term long trades, but all of my intermediate and longer term positions will be to the short side of the market.

The degree of timeframe of any move lower is difficult to assess at its beginnings. That can only be determined by analyzing the strength of any decline and watching the market trade through important Key Areas. Therefore, if the S&P trades below 1359.25, short entries should be considered. Immediate support is at 1350.25. If the market cannot get through 1350, expect some rotation back up. However, if 1350 is traded through, add to short positions or look for initial short entries with initial stops just above it.

Breaking 1344 will open a potential test of 1328. With each move below one of the Key Areas listed above or in the Daily chart , that Key Area will become resistance on any rotation back up. If it is exceeded, then the move lower is likely to have been complete.

If an intermediate or longer term trend lower is going to begin, you will want to see it build on itself. I would not want to see breadth get extremely negative in one day and for volume to explode. This could happen in a news driven event. However, just as the rally is not building on itself, a decline will need to draw in new sellers with each day. The market internals should build on themselves and not get to extremes quickly. This could signal a capitulation and a reversal back up.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Market Forecast for next Week for the S&P500

Monday Feb 20,
New Swing Position Short: 1367.75

First Target : 1358

Analysis/Setup : Available upon request.

Tuesday , Feb 21,

First Target filled as expected and according to trade plan.
Second Target 1350.25 ( VPOC AND HVN )

Thursday, Feb 23 ,Second target filled as expected !

I believe that a move below the 1330 level is more likely than not, and here is some of my reasoning. First, the VIX action has been interesting, with the increasing VIX on the Wednesday and Thursday up days for the market.

 It is unusual to see the VIX rise 2% on two successive sessions in which the SPX is also rising and this usually leads to market weakness in the short term. The VIX action on Friday also seemed way out of proportion to the action of the SPX; the VIX jumped 12% while the SPX dropped a mere 0.7%. This seems to imply that traders had been overconfident and were rapidly trying to hedge their bets.

Looking at several market leaders is also interesting. Three leaders in particular grab my focus: The Russell 2000, the Financials, and the SOX. When these three leaders are all leading in the same direction the SPX usually follows. And it seems apparent that at the moment all three of these leaders are weakening quicker than the SPX, suggesting further weakness is in store for the SPX.

The Transports have been acting weak over the past several days and with the S&P futures and cash struggling to take out their July 2011 highs (futures-1354.50; cash-1356.48) we are now seeing the entire market start to pullback. Thursday thanks to $AAPL the Nasdaq futures (the market’s upside leader) took the market from its lows straight back up to its highs but unable to get the S&P cash and futures above their July high and unable to get the Transports back above their 10 day moving average (their 10 day moving average was the stone cold high of the day). This is another reason why I think the correcton is not over.Is the market correcting to the Transports or are the Transports going to correct to the market? I have been wondering which one of the two was going to happen and now it looks like the market is correcting to the Transports. I see the rally as only being as strong as its weakest link and right now the weakest link is the Transports. Friday they were poised to open below their 20 day moving average and their daily up trend. This is the first time this year that one of the major Indices is poised to do that.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

The Ben Bernanke Scheme

Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, says: Welcome to Japan! Yes sir, his idea to “fix” the economy is to not let the free market work, which would be impossible since these USSR-type central planners refuse to allow a free market to materialize, but rather they keep doing what has already failed. In other words, he will employ the Japanese version of “easing,” which is simply to keep giving the banking mafia whatever it wants.

During Chairman Bernanke’s press conference, Mr. Bernanke was asked how he thinks the savers in our country feel with ZERO interest rates. That is to say – How do the “little people” think it is going when they receive NO interest payments on their savings, while at the same time PAY 30% interest on credit cards.

The Chairman’s answer was almost “Who cares.” In fact, he may have said that, but the following is what  He said, “If I don’t make the savers among us rescue the banking mafia via zero interest rates, savers won’t be able to save…so who gives a damn about grandma and grandpa’s fixed income and saving accounts. I have to rescue my banking friends first. Moreover, I don’t give a rat’s ass how long this will take – I will give the banksters zero percent interest rates (ZIRP) for as long as it takes and if the elderly and other savers go broke – who cares. Once my bankster friends are back to the good life, I will raise interest rates – slowly – and the savers of the USA will make a few cents. Until then – tough luck.”
In the FOMC statement and during the press conference, the Fed said that the banking mafia will enjoy ZIRP for at least another 3-years…until 2015 – maybe longer. Like the Japanese central banksters, the central banksters will continue doing what doesn’t work, because all they know is failure – and they’re good at it.
Here is how well the repetition of failure worked for Japan. The USA has a “lost decade” of no growth in equities as shown in the 11-years , monthly S&P500 Index chart ; however, Japan is on 22-years of no growth and it is getting worse. Why are US politicians determined to allow the central banking republicans manipulated clowns take us down the same path?
Again and again I have to keep reminding myself that most portfolio managers, as well as individual investors, firmly believe that not only can the US economy grow its way out of its current mess, but that the US economy has already begun that process.
The fact that the Fed continues to create $100 billion of new money each month to support the economy is not as important to them as is the cumulative 60% growth in the federal deficit since 2008. Also irrelevant is that take home pay net of inflation is and has been declining on a year over year basis for the past several months

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Friday The 13th - Bad OMEN for the ES Market

The broad market declined on Friday. The strongest decline was noted on the Russell 2000 (0.77% loss) while NASDAQ 100 lost only 0.42%. The NASDAQ 100 index closed down 0.42%; the S&P 500 dropped 0.49% while the Dow lossed 0.39%. For the week, the NASDAQ 100 is currently showing a gain of 0.67%; the S&P 500 has gained 0.88% while the Dow is presently up 0.5%.

Volume for the S&P 500 was 2,630 million shares today, 7% less that the average daily volume of the past 3 months.

In previous short-term outlook, I had suggested: " Negative money flow would suggest the possibility of negative trading tomorrow after the market open. ... Overall I would consider the outlook for tomorrow slightly in favor of the Bulls.

 However, sentiment could be easily turned into bearish and if my indicator starts to decline on the 30-day chart I will consider it as a signal for bearish trading session" - Then the indexes moved down at the market open, and then a short covering vertical move in the last hour but more down is expected as the 30-day chart started to decline.

Equities have been shrugging bad news coming out of Europe and slowly and steadily creeping up. In the past few days markets have generally fallen at the open, but then slowly regained its footing by the end of the day.

All this indicates that the equity market is complacent and confident that prices will rise. But in a different corner of the market, where the big boys play, traders and investors are getting risk averse. The US treasury market and the US Dollar are giving signals that the risky play of equities may be off the table.

 On Friday the 10-year US treasury bond prices made a new high  and the Dollar index broke a key resistance level. The US Dollar and treasuries are considered safe places to invest when the equity market is falling.

But the US treasury and dollar market have been steadily moving up for the past few days even as the equity markets continued to rally. A rallying of safe havens and equities simultaneously is pretty unusual.

Notice that both the Dollar and treasuries rallied high on Friday but sold off. The dollar index is back in it's resistance zone and the 10-year treasuries did come back below its previous all time high.

If both these markets close above Friday's highs next week and continue higher we could see a sell off in equities. There are however a few factors that are not in favor of the equity bears. Gold the other safe haven is not rallying with any kind of strength. The other factor is that both the US dollar, treasuries and equities have been going up in tandem over the past few days. This does not ussually happens and completely skews the risk-safe haven inter-play, leaving technical analysts scratching their heads.

Consumer sentiment hit an eight-month high in early January as Americans grew more optimistic about job prospects, a survey released on Friday showed.

The economy could improve one to two years earlier than it otherwise would if the Federal Reserve behaves "very aggressively," including possibly making additional asset purchases, a top Fed official said on Friday.Giving President Obama another victory in the upcoming elections.

In politics , Newt Gingrich visited a Cuban Restaurant in South Florida,looking for money donations to safe his dwindling useless political campaing. Apparently some rich wealthy Cuban Americans think that this old, hippocrite and fat conservative candidate is going to help them re-establish the failed Cuban Embargo even when the majority of exiles no longer support that idea.They don't realize that Newt Gingrich is ignoring the Black African American's voters in South Florida and he will eventually loose against Obama.We all know that 99% of blacks will re-elect Obama again.

The Federal Reserve should not ease monetary policy further because that would lead to higher inflation without additional economic growth, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Friday.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is considering ways to ease or tailor regulations impacting community banks, such as commercial real estate standards, as a way to boost their lending, a top Fed official said on Friday.

Import prices edged down in December as oil prices fell after a November surge, according to a government report on Friday that showed inflation pressures still muted.

Observations : It is amazing how a few mediocre trading GURUS are selling support and resistance levels to the unaware and unimformed inexperienced new traders when these information can be obtained easily from many free sources and by looking at the charts , especially when these so called experts never show a live trade using their levels.A Twitter posted trade is NOT a live trade !- Mediocre traders ( Riskcap, FT71 and others ) selling information that is NOT unique without showing live trading proof.And the fools keep paying them !