Sunday, July 31, 2011

Market Status - New Swing Trade

Friday , August 5th
SHORT from key level as explained to subscribers,

The three central bank interventions (SNB, BOJ and ECB) prior to yesterday’s open were not enough to stem the waves of capitulation selling that overcame the markets. Or, perhaps, their actions were seen as pusillanimous half measures. Regardless, serious damage was done to the market and, while we might expect a short term flashy rally to emerge in the coming days, extreme caution must be exercised in this low liquidity environment.

 One thing that contradicts our present bearishness is the US money supply, where, as of yesterday’s post-close release, the Fed reported M2 is growing at 9.0% over the past 13 weeks. Long and intermediate term bear markets tend to emerge after a period of money supply contraction. Accordingly, there might be one more intermediate term rally that emerges in the coming months. For now, focus will turn to the central banks this weekend and, in particular, the Fed, which meets at its FOMC meeting next Tuesday.

To date the market has rallied 106% which is not out-of-line with other post recession rallies. In fact, if the market were to rally to 1574, it would represent a 136.4% rally off the March 2009 lows, which would be the average post recession, bull market, bottom to peak, gain.

This would also represent an almost perfect symmetrical move off the June 2010 reactionary low. Until the bulls are truly trapped, we will not have seen the top to the current rally.

One more intermediate term rally makes sense in that it would allow the market to trap some longs. According to the COT, “dumb” money was short along with “smart” money, although not extremely short. The real top to this bear market rally will take place when everybody is caught leaning the wrong way once again.

Thursday , August 04 :

SHORT from key level . Market droped below 1200 as predicted !

Subscribers are now enjoying the profits.
Cheers !

( Carl Futia has been wrong a record 12 consecutive times saying the market is going UP ! , LOL - what an Idiot ! )

Wednesday - August 3rd Update:

Back from a scuba diving voyage.

 Long Swing trade was voided due to price action during the Open on Monday August 01. I now think the market will break the June 16 low at 1252.25 and possibly the March 17 low at 1241.25 and below 1200. Looking to SELL at key level as explained to subscribers. 

Day Trading Performance Today : Win Ratio 88%
Travel and diving expences paid and ready for the next swing trade.

See You at The Beach ! and the other side of the trade...

The broad market declined Friday,July 29. The strongest decline was noted on the DJI (0.80% loss) while Russell 2000 lost only 0.26%. The DJI ended session lower for an sixth time in a row.

Of the last 16 sessions, the DJI has closed red 12 times. The NASDAQ 100 pushed to new one-week low today. The Russell 2000 made a new five-week low today. The NASDAQ 100 ended with a loss of 0.38%.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.65% while the Dow declined 0.8%. The week ends with the NASDAQ 100 lossing 2.75%; the S&P 500 showing a minus of 3.92%, and the Dow closing down 4.23%.

The S&P 500 saw volume of 3,268 million shares on this session. This was above the average daily volume of the last 3 months by 20%.

 The economy stumbled badly in the first half of 2011 and came dangerously close to contracting in the January-March period, raising the risk of a recession if a standoff orchestrated by the Republicans over the nation's debt does not end quickly.

The Federal Reserve should keep borrowing costs near rock-bottom lows for the foreseeable future if economic growth continues to disappoint, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Friday.

The government prepared Wall Street firms on Friday for the possibility it may have to delay or cancel a major round of bond sales if Congress doesn't raise the nation's borrowing limit by August 2.

The "Great Recession" was even greater than previously thought, and the U.S. economy has skated uncomfortably close to a new one this year.

Consumer sentiment fell in July to its lowest in more than two years as anxieties over stagnant wages and rising unemployment deepened, a survey released on Friday showed.

Civilian employment costs surged a steeper-than-expected 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the biggest gain since September 2008, on a jump in benefits costs, Labor Department data showed on Friday.

A top Federal Reserve official on Friday would not rule out loosening the U.S. central bank's monetary policy further, but said conditions would have to worsen.

What this Blog is all about :

Apparently there are some retarded or low IQ followers that did not understand or misinterpreted the purpose and objectives of this Blog.

To clarify  once and for all this Blog is for :

Discretionary Day Trading Techniques

Focusing on the Futures contract E-Mini S&P500 trade entries and using

The SPX Index and other proprietary indicators.

This is NOT a Blog for soliciting new investors

The Charts examples and Reviews are NOT trade recommendations

This Blog and the Twitter trading comments do NOT have to live up to anybody’s Expectations and is only for private and confidential subscribers.

Applications for subscription is NOT open to bad faith followers ( ex. BrettonwoodsII ) or inactive traders or trading pretenders committing FRAUD during market hours ( ex. Benkotrader from Germany-Twitter among others that never trade live and only show theorical unreliable bullshit S/R lines copying someone else's research and deceiving new traders ! ).

Qualification for Subscription requires the private investor group's approval to keep the bad faith and mentally unprepared or just plain negative arrogant individuals out. We DO NOT solicit anyone in this Blog.

New Swing Position is Eminent :

Will look for a new SHORT Entry during the Globex Sunday session or the RTH in the ES

Trade Setup : SOLD

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Market Update

Monday,July 25th bulls were able to discount the disappointment that facilitated the large down gap Sunday evening in equity futures.

Overnight, the ES traded just inside of yesterday’s day session high and low. As we draw closer to the meat of the major news releases this week, we would expect activity to pick up.

Besides the debt ceiling issue, there is Durable Goods and the Fed’s Beige Book released tomorrow, which the Fed produces in preparation for the upcoming FOMC meeting on August 9. The first estimate of Q1 GDP is released Friday, which also commences the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole event.

Many Fed governors will be speaking, and it is not lost on traders that last year’s meeting leaked hints of the resumption of Fed balance sheet maintenance and (subsequent) expansion (QE2). Accordingly, risk markets appear poised to run with any good news, provided they can avoid a rout on any disappointment. Until the ES accepts above 1350 or below 1290, it simply remains in a trading range.

The broad market declined today. The strongest decline was noted on the Russell 2000 (0.80% loss) while NASDAQ 100 gained 0.22%. Of the last 13 sessions, the DJI has closed red 9 times. On the NASDAQ 100, we saw the 6th up-close in the last 10 sessions. The DJI is now at new one-week low.

2,705 million shares traded on the S&P 500 today. This is close to the average volume we saw on a daily basis during the past 3 months.

In previous short-term outlook, I had suggested: "Negative money flow on 5-day chart would suggest the possibility of negative trading tomorrow after the market open. 15-day charts ... 30-day charts ... would favor bears as well." - Today, the major indexes declined.
 5 minutes chart are showing declining oscillator readings at session's end. Negative money flow on this chart would suggest the possibility of negative trading tomorrow after the market open. 15 min charts  are showing negative money flow as well, thus confirming 5-day chart's outlook. However, 30 minutes are showing advancing and flat  reading at this moment. Taking into account the most recent bearish readings I would say that despite negative outlook on 5- and 15 charts, overall sentiment is slightly in favor of bulls (unless we see declining  on 30-min charts).
The United States will lose its top-notch AAA credit rating from at least one major rating agency, according to a Reuters poll that also found wrangling over the debt ceiling has already damaged the economy.

A contraction in motor vehicle production because of a shortage of parts from Japan and high gasoline prices that curbed consumer spending, probably kept the U.S. economy on a slow growth path in the second quarter.

Financial markets have remained unruffled despite a stalemate over raising the debt ceiling because investors and traders expect Congress to act to prevent a debt default, a top Federal Reserve official told lawmakers on Tuesday.

Prices for new single family homes rose to a five-month high in June even as sales slipped, but recovery for the broader housing market continues to be frustrated by an oversupply of properties.

A downgrade of the United States' AAA credit rating is a bigger risk than a default and could over time add up to 0.7 percentage point to bond yields, members of a U.S. securities industry group said on Tuesday.

President Barack Obama's Democrats and their Republican rivals were further apart than ever on Tuesday in an impasse over the government's debt limit as investors braced for a looming default and downgrade. Remember that Republicans don't want Obama re-elected and now they are using dirty politics again. Many people that never voted for the President are coming out like vultures critizising him without mention of past administrations mistakes in not lowering the national debt.

If Republicans give a victory to the President it will damage their chance to get re-elected or for a Republican to be President .Real dirty politics !

US Republican Boehner says we won't hike taxes because taxes destroy job creation - lying to the people for the benefit of the wealthy !

The Republicans are decieving this nation and are trying very hard to satisfy their wealthy constituents in return for re-election, that is that is a true undisputable fact.Record profits and sitting with their wealth in overseas banks, waiting for the next expantion overseas with cheaper labor.Don't keep lying to the American people !

Will bet my whole year income that if Taxes are cut , it will NOT create more jobs due to the arrogance, greedy practices, and continue exporting of jobs by multinationals companies !  

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Short-Term Outlook

Finally arrived at this Island destination of Nevis, and getting ready for some quality scuba diving in this beautiful Island. Traveling while trading and scuba diving around the world continues, paid for by trading profits.

Market Outlook :

The broad market ended flat to slightly higher today. The NASDAQ 100 outperformed other indexes by climbing up 1.05% while the DJI lost 0.35%.

Of the last 8 sessions, the S&P 500 has closed green 5 times. The DJI is also down on 7 of the last 11 sessions. On the NASDAQ 100, we saw the 5th up-close in the last 8 sessions. The Russell 2000 are now up on 5 of the last 8 sessions as well.

The NASDAQ 100 pushed to new ten-year high today ( Friday ). The Russell 2000 made a new two-week high today.

The NASDAQ 100 index climbed 1.05% (resulting in a weekly gain of 3.09%). The S&P 500 rose 0.08% (resulting in a weekly advance of 2.18%). The Dow lossed 0.35% (bringing its weekly gain to 1.61%).

The day ended with a daily volume of 2,461 million shares on the S&P 500. This volume was 10% less than the daily volume average of the past 3 months.

Positive money flow  would suggest the possibility of positive trading Monday after the market opens. On the other hand, 15 minutes charts are showing declining money flow which would favor the Bears. Outlook on the 30-day charts is mixed at this moment: positive money flow on the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, neutral money flow on the S&P 500 and negative money flow on the DJI.

I would say that there are some odds of  positive trading on Monday at the market open. However, overall outlook for Monday could be considered slightly in favor of bears - mainly because of negative money flow on the 15-day charts and strong bullish proprietary output during the yesterday's advance.

Those of you that follow this Blog and Twitter : ' Eagledives ' , are aware of my current Long position from 1261.75 initiated on June 17 when posted in Twitter : " My advancing Issues oscillators are oversold and are showing bullish divergences. Sentiment is very bearish. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development." My subscriber were told to stay Long. That position is now UP + 86 Points in profit. There were other important clues given in Twitter : ' Eagledives '.

See You at the Beach.