Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Swing Trade Update

Friday , November 02 - Swing Tade Update:

Today was a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day signal for today after yesterday’s big rally, and my Propriatery Cycle Indicator ( P C I ) confirmed that we should anticipate a sale today. In addition to what the TTT said we might expect a correction today in a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade today.

The market ran out of steam shortly after the 9:30 est stock market open (it’s often a turning point), falling through the reference key level prices and reaching the overnight double bottom low of 1420.25. It found support a bit under there and has since traded sideways through early afternoon.
If you were following my swing trade today or if you had your fill of trading for the week you could have wrapped up the week by mid-morning.

Target number 6 was reached at 1431 and booked for another + 37.50pts and exited the rest at 1425 for + 31.50 pts booked on the final lot > Total pts for this Swing Trade : + 176.25 pts


4:55pm > Update : Fifth Target filled and booked at 1425 for + 31.50 pts booked profits

Final Target : 1433.25 > Globex High is now 1425.50 < 4:55pm est > Nov 1st


10:42am Update : Fourth Target Reached , filled and booked for + 29 pts <

Thursday, November 1st >  Long @ 1393.50 now trading at 1409.50 > 8:49am


The Lady stands after all and life goes on in the big city.

7:00am Swing Trade Update :  Long from 1393.50

Third Target reached as expected : + 12.50 pts booked again > Total Profits : + 46.75 pts

Thank You Sandy ( Hurricane ) and thank you for all the Shorts ( StocksTwits ) that took the wrong position, keep shorting , thanks

JaguarTrader ( StocksTwits )

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Hurricane Sandy Swing Trade Wins

6:00pm Update : Second Target filled and booked + 19 pts , Total : + 34.25 pts

Long from 1393.50 <  Key Level > 1393.25 and LVN > + 15.25 pts booked

Swing Trade Setup : 

> MACD  Double Divergence at Key Institutional Level
> False Breakout " FAKEY " Setup after an Inside Day

> Weekly 38.2 % Fibonacci Retracement

 > Short covering fueled rally on low volume as expected and  predicted

Hoping that the folks on the US East Coast are safe and warm. The ES Market is closed for a second day while Globex is moving along fine.

JaguarTrader ( StocksTwits )

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Swing Position Update

3pm est > Done for the Day

Scenario number 2 is now complete . Nothing beats a plan when trading. Can't express it enough
how important this part of trading is to you success.You always have to expect the unexpected from
this markets.

The number 2 scenario did not reached its target, therefore the necessary course of action according to the trade plan emailed to subscribers was implemented.The market followed scenario # 2 as predicted and that was another option in the trade plan.

Price action failed to find support at the key level zones and a reversal of trade was initiated.

11:50am > The 2nd Scenario playing out as suggested premarket. Approaching 1399.50 target as predicted. Target achieved now.

It is odvious that the stop loss orders hunting game continues in this market

Complete Trade Plan available upon request to non-subscribers.


The ES failed to make a new low after the FED Day and is trading above the Line In the Sand Zone :
in this Three Days Profile > 1410.75 to 1411.25 < Bear / Bull Zone.

9:00am > Notice how the Key Zone held after the Economic report reaction. Two scenarios at the open today :

1. Will open and drop to the 1409.75 VPOC and the 1409.25 to  1407.50 high volume zone OR

2. After the Open it will auction down through all the key levels and find support at the Key Institutional level : 1399.50

3. Will Open and go UP to 1417 to 1420 Key Resistance Zone OR

4. Will Open and go sideways above the Two Days Zone and then breakout.

Long @ 1399.75 < S 1 and Key Level

Monday, October 22, 2012

New Short Position

Thursday , October 25 -Holding Open Long Swing Position at 1405

Swing Trade Setup : same as Tuesday > see below . Target : 1422.50


Wed - October 24 : New Position

9:06am Update : Took profits at 1414.50 < Prev Day High > Done for the Day

9am Update : > Holding Open Long Swing Position 1405.00

04:22am - Long 1405 > Trade Setup same as below


7:24pm est Update :  Target filled and booked for + 16 Pts > Long @ 1417 < Closed trade at 1426

Setup for this Trade : MACD  4 Hour Bullish Divergence
                                      RSI ( 2 ) Market Timing Strategy : Day 3
                                      Key Institutional Level
                                      Cycle Indicator Oversold Reading

1:48pm Long @ 1417 < Key Institutional Level posted before the Open < Another Winner


1:42pm Update : Final Target achieved as predicted, booked profits : + 14pts plus 12.50 Pts
Total Profits on this trade : 26.50 Pts

11:20am est Update : Second target hit and booked for another + 8 pts > Short @ 1431
Looks like the Institutional Level worked as expected, Cheers !

Total Profits : +12.50 pts plus the previous Long , not posted.

8:15am - Update :  Took profits + 4.50 pts booked > Short @ 1431

5:50am SOLD Short @ 1431 > 1431.25 Key Institutional Level > 1430 is the 50 Day MA

Trade Setup : Daily Reversal WR Bar , 23.6 % Retracement of Fri Range , Key Level Resistance in Globex pre-open session.

Expected Final ( Dessert ) Target : 1417

1439.50 < Key Bull / Bear Level
1431.25 < Institutional Level
1430     < 50 Day MA
1424.50 < Must hold this level after the Open
1423.50 < Prev Day ( Friday ) Low
1422.50 < VPOC > Fri - Oct 12 < Will bounce here
1421    < CLVN
 1418.75 <
 1417 Key Level

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Short Covering in the Bond Market

Flight to quality rally and short covering provided another winning trade using my proprietary cycle indicator.The trade entry was not posted due to a very busy schedule on other business matters.

Google's earnings miss on Thursday was followed Friday by misses from three Dow components:

General Electric, Microsoft, McDonald's. Soft European demand is the general complaint so far of the third-quarter earnings season. But not a complaint is domestic residential housing though existing home sales did dip back in September, but only slightly relative to very strong gains in the two prior months.

The Dow ended near its lows, down a very steep 1.5 percent to 13,343. Demand for safety is reappearing with buyers bidding down Treasury yields, to 1.77 percent for the 10-year for a 7 basis point decline on the day. Demand for safety helped give a 0.3 percent boost to the dollar index. Oil fell a sizable $2 to $90 with gold down $20 to $1,720.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Options Expiration Friday Review

This chart is only the first 2 hours of trading in 30min Bars with the most significant levels and only one trade entry Short.The targets for that entry is not shown.

This Options Expiration was very unusual in that it exceeded the average range of previous Opt Exp Days.

The pre-opening bias was bullish for many traders and the 20 Day SMA and the 38.2% Fib was expected to be supported but it did not.

There was some clues on the first 30mins of trading shown on this chart. There was a very heavy accumulation of stops loss orders below 1446.50 and 1439.50. Both levels were penetrated and a Spike in Volume occurred.The High Volume Zone from 1446.25 to 1444.25 from Oct 16 was violated and that was another important clue that Bears had absolute overwhelming control.

The GAP left on Oct 16 from 1436.75 to 1440.75 ( S 2 ) was filled on the second hour and 1436.75 inside the Gap was the Key Level to watch. There was a 2 points bounce or retracement at this level.

On the Third Hour it found support at 1430.75 and bounce or retraced 3.75 pts after an hour of consolidation sideways range and failing to penetrate above the 1434 Key Level. The key levels here were : 1434,  1431.75 < Weekly Pivot and the 1430 < Monthly Pivot, so 1431 was an important level that held for one hour.

The short squeeze and stop loss orders hunting game continues till after the presidential election as predicted 30 days ago on StockTwits.

JaguarTrader ( StocksTwits )

Friday, October 19, 2012

Opt Exp Day

1:30pm est Final Update : Lower targets filled and booked - Done for the Day - Have a good weekend

11:24am - Once 1443.25 Key level did not hold , Sold it after the break of 1443.25 on the retracement to it . Did not have time to post the trade.

10:51 Long again at 1441.75 < out at break even

10:34am > Long again at 1443 < out at small loss - .50 ( 1443.25 Key Level )

10:22 - Filled at 1442.25 < Long , out at break even

9:46am est > Will buy 1442 > 9:59am Will Sell 1446.50

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Back to Trading desk

2:50pm est - Done for the Day

Trading Futures involves substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for all investors. Trades posted and comments are not trade recommendations.Use stop loss always.

1:54pm - In retrospect looking back at the intraday price action the 1454.50 Floor Pivot became
more improtant level than the 1457. This is why is very important to go back very quickly and reassess the developing action to learn from recent mistakes, and then take the trade setup.

One more trade setup was taken but due to technical reasons including an unespected electrical power outage I was not able to post the entry.The very tight stop loss save my early winnings.Always use a very small stop, low risk at key levels.If it doesn't work then reassess.

11:46am - Power Out at my residence ! Stop Loss hit > Loss .50 pts

11:40am Will sell 1456.75 > 1457 is a Key Level

10:39am - No fill on second target, exited Short for total : + 9 pts booked profits

10:15am - Booked + 4pts on first target filled . Note: Bad slippage on entry due to the economic report, but direction was correct.

10:03am est > SOLD 1455.50 and 1456.25

Will buy 1450.50 or Will Sell 1455 , now trading at 1452.50 < 9:34am est

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

New Entry Short after Long Exit

Wednesday, October 17 Update : ZBZ12 < 30yr T-Bonds Futures > Short @ 149.15

Third Target filled and booked at 147.17 for + 62 Ticks = $1,937.50

Closed Position Total Profits : $ 4, 031.25

Arthur ,
Agree with the annoying catcha, if you want to avoid that you could post your comment faster on StockTwits and address it to @JaguarTrader.


10:28pm est - ZBZ12 < 30 yr T-Bonds Update :

Open Swing Position :   Short from 149.15 Monday > first target was hit and booked + $ 437.50 or 14 tics.
Second Target :  Filled and Booked for + 53 Ticks or $ 1,656.25

Total Profits :  + $ 2,093.75

Trade Setup : Overbought condition from proprietary cycle indicator

JaguarTrader ( StockTwits )


3:10pm est - Second target hit and booked for another + 4 pts plus the Long going up ,
Totals : 26 pts > Done for the day. Short Open position left to run.

2:14pm Back from Lunch and Beach walk, nice weather.

Looks like the short is in the money + 2 pts booked and target is near, will be back to sip the champange and toast to another winner...

Will Sell 1449.50 < ES < Filled Sold 1449.50 > Sold second entry at 1450.50 < 12:15pm

Break for Lunch

Monday, October 15, 2012

Market Status

2:15pm Update : There was another setup in the afternoon but did not have time to type it here.

Price Action Recap : The ES opened at 1426.50 and immidietely touched  the VAH at 1428.25 where it did a reversal and that number happened to be the low of the Reaction to the Retail Sales Report at 8:30am est. <  < this was anticipated by the clue given earlier, read below -to be continued...

Hey ! Arthur from Utah, did you do any trades today in the ES ? hope you getting some value out of this post.


10:36am Update : Second Target hit and filled at 1423.50 and Third target booked at 1422.25
Total profits : + 13.75 pts


9:00am Update : Notice how the Retail Sales Report came out very positive, yet the ES reversed to down after a UP price spike of only 1.25 pts and a spike in volume. This reaction is a clue of what will happened later at the open. A classic High Volume Reversal Trade,

Open Position : SHORT @ 1430 and 1428.75 , booked + 3 pts and looking for 1423.50


8:30am Update : Sold 1430 will add at 1428.75 > test of 1429 Key Level < Sold 8:45am

Short Swing Position :  ZBZ12 ( 30 yr T-Bonds ) from 149.15 > First Target was hit and booked + $ 437.50 or 14 tics.
Overbought Setup from cycle indicator worked as expected for a nice easy profit.


Monday-Oct 15 - 6:00am Update :

The ES has been trading between 1426.75 and 1429 for more than 4 hours which clearly indicates how important this zone is.

Long from 1416.75 < took profits at 1428.75 booked + 12 pts


8:26pm Sunday - Oct 14 :

The ES is trading tonight at a key trend line support while showing a divergence on the MACD key chart, if you have been following my previous posts, you should know which one.

The Sunday night Globex action has found support at : S 1 < 1416.50

My current position is Long from 1416.75, will take profits if it gets to 1423.50 and will initiate a short position there,if it does not hold, looking for a new low of 1412 to 1411.

                                1434 < Key Level
The key levels are : 1431
                                1429 < Key Level
                                1428.25 < VAH
                                1425.25 < Floor Pivot
                                1416.50 < S 1
                                1412 < Key Level

A positive Retail Sales report is expected but if it comes out weak it will push the market down.
The 30 year T-Bonds Futures will come down from overbought levels tonight , Sold 149.15 , it may retrace back up again during the day session.

Good trading,
JaguarTrader ( StocksTwits )