Sunday, May 23, 2010

Summertime is Beach time and Diving in the Blue Ocean

What a week at the beach !, diving and cruising before it gets all polluted. Saw it coming years ago when the big Oil companies saturated the Gulf Coast with oil rigs and the politicians gave them the green light by accepting their bribes. Too late now.

On the markets:

The SPX will trade above 1200 again before Labor Day

If the devastating path that Obama has us on isn't changed soon, the U.S. will face the same debt problems as Socialist Europe, and being a debtor nation, who in the hell is going to buy our debt when there is little confidence that we can support it.

That is not a problem for China because they are not facing a sovereign debt collapse like Europe is now, and the U.S. will be in a few years under the status quo. China sees it coming and has been shortening its maturities on the U.S. treasuries that they hold, and Japan is now the primary holder of our U.S. long term debt. The initial reaction to the EU sovereign debt default is to buy the USD, Gold, Treasuries, all of which we see now, and we could also see the foreign capital seek temporary haven in U.S. equities. The EU bailout of the banks [although they say Greece] is expected to do no more than postpone for a few years the inevitable debt collapse in Greece, Portugal, Spain, and possibly Ireland.

The ES will climb up to 1121 - 1130 this week , that is the top of the May 10 Gap and the Hourly down trend line. By the way that 1051.25 Low on last Friday 5-21 was the low made on NFP ( Payrolls ) Day February 5th, before the N.Y. Open. The Day session Low that day for the ESH10 ( March ) was 1040.75.

Trade well and go to the beach before it is polluted. !

Saturday, May 1, 2010

There are many reasons why I will never trade Energy or Metal Futures

Back from some fine diving in the coral seas,
But, here is the most important reason among many why I will never trade Energy or Metals Futures.
The following market manipulation facts have been known to me and many of my pit traders friends for a long time:
US Futures Regulators Fine Banks for Irregularities
Published: Friday, 30 Apr 2010 5:31 AM ET
US futures regulators fined Morgan Stanley $14 million for failing to report a big block oil trade and fined Moore Capital $25 million for attempting to manipulate palladium and platinum futures.
The CFTC also ordered UBS Securities to pay a $200,000 penalty tied to the Morgan Stanley settlement.( another guilty manipulator )

In the Morgan Stanley case, the CFTC said a trader from the company arranged a block crude oil trade with a UBS broker for Feb. 6, 2009, but the two agreed to
delay reporting the trade until after the market closed. In clear violation of NYMEX rules
NYMEX rules require block trades to be reported within five minutes of execution.

The CFTC fined Moore Capital Management — one of the largest and most consistently profitable hedge funds — for trying to manipulate the settlement prices of Platinum and Palladium Futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, from at least November 2007 through May 2008 by entering trades in the last 10 seconds of trading in a manner designed to exert upward pressure on the settlement prices.
The practice is known as "banging the close."
The biggest market manipulation charges from the top U.S. futures regulator were in 2007, when BP Products North America agreed to pay $303 million in sanctions for attempting to manipulate the propane market in the north-eastern United States in 2003-2004.
This is the same Oil Company that is responsible for the recent huge Oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico this year. This oil pollution is going to destroy the fine beautifull beaches of Florida and ruin many fisherman and scuba diving operators in Florida and the Gulf of Mex.
More prove and evidence of Market Manipulation:

Earlier this year, the CFTC fined UBS $130,000 for exceeding spot-month position limits in natural gas, heating oil and platinum futures contracts between 2006 and 2008.

In 2004, Enron Corp was fined $35 million for manipulating the natural gas market, among other charges. Last December, CFTC sanctioned MF Global Inc $10 million for supervisory violations.