Sunday, November 29, 2009

Weekend Long Term Perspective

In regard to momentum, I continue to observe negative RSI divergences on all timeframes: from the hourly charts to the weekly charts. All uptrends during this entire bear market have ended at a long term key pivot. The SPX has been trying to break through the key 1107 long term pivot for nearly two months now with no success. Finally, the internal momentum of this uptrend has been deteriorating. The SPX has closed below the 20 Day EMA first time in two weeks.
The NYAD is displaying negative divergences, the financial/banking sectors (XLF, KBE, KRE) are in downtrends along with their leader GS. Plus, several foreign indices are in confirmed downtrends: ASX, BSE, DAX, NIKK and the STOX. At this stage it will not take much more selling to end this uptrend.
Over the past two weeks the SPX has traded above 1110 on five separate days, and has not been able to break through the 1107 pivot range on any of those days. In fact, over the past three weeks the market has appeared to be churning. During this period each Sunday night the USD was sold heavily overseas, the SPX surged on monday, and then went flat for the rest of the week. This action is similar to the churning action at the top of the last uptrend.
New Swing position: SHORT from 1096.50 as Twitted on Friday Nov 27. The retracement scenario played out as previously described. The $ES_F retraced more than 62% of the drop after the Dubai ,U.A.E financial news.
Update on Swing Position from 1096.50 on Nov 29:
This position was exited early for +10 pts profits due to a business trip.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Wishing all a Happy Thanksgivings

Update on Long position from 1096.50:

Position exited at 1110 for +13.50 points profits

This Long Setup is a confluence of the Market Timing Strategy with an 84% win ratio in 12 years and the Seasonal Odds Trade; 12 out of the last 13 occurrances, with 474 occurr. since 1990 with 270 up, 201 down, 3 unchanged. Also there are some other technical factors that have occurred to give this trade more reliability and higher odds. So its a 95% chance the Market close higher today. The line in the sand is 1101.75. Price should not go beyond 1104, in fact it should take out the previous high before it opens on Turkey Day ( Thursday ) because of low volume.
Results: Market GAP down big time ! Took my money and ran way before that. A good friend in the Hedge Fund Business overseas tipped me off early, thanks to him. Should have shorted but no regrets. Going to eat that turkey now, BON Appetite !

The One that Everyone else missed

The papertraders in simulaton mode missed this trade Tue, Nov 24 in $ES_F StockTwits

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Day-Trading Account Performance

Another COHIBA Day. Time to celebrate ! The swing Long position is doing very well, thank you for your support, for the free charts from my Secretary At Large and for the idiots that don't know how to trade and took the other side ( loosers ).
Also want to thank all those thousands of emails followers and admirers that encourage me to keep disclousing the Myths and Truths about day-trading, LOL.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Buy Limit FILLED at 1098.50 and 1096.50

Long $ES_F ( E-Mini S&P500 ) from 1096.50 and 1098.50. As discussed on the previous 60min chart the intraday price action found support at the Trend Line confluence with the 1095 key support level. At 10:30pm est Tuesday Nov 24 the price is trading at 1104.25. The scenario played out exactly as planed. Target is now 1117.50 or 22.5 points from 1095.

Monday, November 23, 2009

The Scenario Becomes Reality

The Bullish scenario discussed on Sunday Nov 22 ( see " 60min-View of the Trend and Projections" ) became real as the Key MA at 1096 was penetrated above for more than +8 pts and also above the Resistance zone. Now the next move for the market is to retrace back to a logical level where enough buyers will become interested again or old resistance zone becomes support zone.

Another Low Risk Trade Executed from Sunday night

Here is the result of another trade executed during the Sunday Globex session. The setup and analysis for the entry is proprietary since this is not a recommendation for anyone and I do not trade to live up to anyone s expectations.My trading account is growing quickly and that is enough satisfaction for me. Don't need any credit or cheerleading from anyone.

Like many other traders ( most of them simulating ) in $ES_F StockTwits my trades have been posted after the fact but with the Live Performance Record also posted in Twitter.However since 95% of other traders in ST are not live trading and do not know how to trade I have desided not to share my trade entries again in that medium.

Detailed Profile Compliments of My Secretary at Large

$ES_F NO credit for bad trading advice, you have to earn it first
and if you don't agree with the evaluation of these charts or with the trading signals in this Blog because you are friends or buddies of the author and your bias is being compromised , then don't send me any comments. Specially if you never day traded before and don't have any Live performance trading record like many in $ES_F StockTwitts ( read this @BigSharkInFL, you low IQ a$$hole , moron ! ).
Again, this chart is only a hypothesis.In day trading , you got to know what your doing...

Profile for Monday 11-23

No direction forecast on this profile, only a hypothesis.What is the historical odds of the scenario?

Example of Opening Swing

NO trade Entry setup is shown here. Limited usefulness.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

60min - View of the Trend and Projections

Next Week if the Thanskgivings Rally ( 13 of 15 ) occurs again then the breakout above 1091 to 1096 will be the first sign of continuation if not then Santa does not like this market...

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Opt.Exp Friday Price Action Review

Trade setups available in Twitter and Live Performance upon request. Entry setups examples in previous posts in this Blog.
Back to sleep after a very active day scuba diving. Thanks to the Hotel staff the Internet Service is working well.Will be back in the States some time next week.

Review Complements of Twitter

Here is a very self serving review of Options Exp Friday ES price action. Lots of contradictions and inacuracies.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Day 2 of Market Timing Strategy

With a 84% win ratio in 12 years and was a winner the last three occurances. See my previous Blog posts for the entry signals results. On Day 3 ( Monday) if the other conditions are meet then BUY at the Close.

" And the Sea will grant each man new hope".... This weekend will travel to the islands for some great scuba diving in the warm tropical waters of the Caribbean Sea. Bon Voyage ! Will be trading from the Hotel room, lol.

Market Recap:

An absence of stimulating economic data releases, Dell's significant earnings miss - now called a 'debacle', and of course the suddenly strengthening US dollar served as a drag for the equity market today. The S&P 500 saw its first weekly loss for the month. A number of additional bearish factors came from overseas, putting further pressure on the markets: The possibility Asian policymakers might impose capital controls; the European Central Bank's hint of withdrawing liquidity (i.e., phasing out stimulus programs).

This week's most troubling economic news came from the housing front where we learned about an unexpected decline in housing starts and a significant increase in mortgage delinquencies. This has reignited concerns about the sustainability of the current economic recovery, and has investors worried, the stock market rally since March may have been overdone.

Recent Data:
Last week's 30-Yr Bond Auction didn't go so well. It had a poor bid/cover ratio and theTreasury was forced to issue the bonds at a higher interest rate than planned.
Import prices were seven times higher than last month's import prices largely due to the falling US dollar.
Consumer sentiment was awful - coming in much worse than last month and much worse than expected. The weakness is rooted in the still contracting jobs market, which won't be improving any time soon.
Mortgage applications plummeted in the last week.Mortgage brokers are unable to execute fradulent contracts due to stricter regualtions.Many are quitting their profession.
Weekly jobless claims are still ABOVE the 500,000.
Retail sales improved. Hmm, the odd thing about this is that States are not reporting better retail TAX collections. Are the retail sales data tainted/rigged now too? probably...
Empire State (NY) Manufacturing data was absolutely horrid ! - much worse than expected.
Industrial production was really bad - much worse than expected.
PPI core data showing deflationary signs, which scares the Fed. CPI was as expected.
Housing market index was worse than expected. Housing starts were much worse than expected.
So this is the data. It is all true and yet the market continues to rally because...wait for it...the US Dollar is dropping. When did it become fashionable and BULLISH to trash one's own currency? When did a lower standard of living become B-U-L-L-I-S-H ?
Aint it grand?
Next week should see light trading because of the upcoming Thanksgivings Holiday. The week however has a loaded economic news calendar with reports scheduled on home sales, unemployment numbers, consumer confidence data, revised GDP numbers, and more.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

SHORT Position closed and reached Target as expected

Final target filled at 1087.50 for a gain of + 21 pts profits. The low was 1086.50.The short position was posted at 10pm on Wednesday evening.

The previous volume profile chart " Targets Above Monday's High" posted by my Secretary on Tuesday at 2:50am was for Wednesday's trading session and some idiots in Twitter/StockTwits made comments suggesting that my SHORT position on Thursday was a result of that previous chart which only showed price levels and NO projected market direction.That only shows the low level of IQ and stupidity of some people in $ES_F StockTwits.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Low Risk SELL Setup

The E-Mini S&P500 ( ES ) or $ES_F as it is known in Twitter has traded another narrow range day . The Volume for today was 23% lower than the previous session. There are other technical clues that indicate lower prices. As of 10pm est ( Globex ) , it is trading at 1105.50 down -3 pts.

New Position: SHORT from 1108.50 ( Prev Close ) filled on the close
3,372 million shares were traded on the S&P 500 today. This volume output is 17% below the index's average daily volume generated over the past three months.
An interesting change of pace in the market today: In spite of US dollar weakness that pushed the greenback back down toward its 52-week low established earlier this week, the equities market was not able to stage a sustainable rally. In fact, it was itself mired in weakness for most of the session (although a late-day upswing contained losses on the S&P 500 and on the Dow). While dollar weakness did not boost equities today, it did encourage buying in gold (which rallied to yet another new all-time high above $1153 per ounce).
Initial market weakness was attributed to poor housing data, with housing starts (i.e., the construction of homes and apartments) in October falling by 10.6% and coming in strongly below expectations. Economists had been calling for 600,000 new units whereas actual reported housing starts for October came in at an annualized 529,000. The number of building permits was also lower than expected. This weak showing of the housing market may have stirred some investor worries about the strength of the US economic recovery.
Among today's other economic data releases, it was reported that the Consumer Price Index for October was up 0.3% (slightly above consensus estimates of an increase of 0.2%); core CPI was up 0.2% (also slightly above economists' expectations).
The NASDAQ's underperformance today can be attributed to troubling outlook and earnings reports from Autodesk and from In addition, Wall Street darling Research in Motion was the object of a negative brokerage report suggesting the Blackberry maker could face increased competition. While technology issues sagged, there was however counteracting strength in the financial and materials sectors.

Review for Tuesday Nov 17

Another Inside Day and very narrow range ( NR 70 ) . Performance available in Twitter.
Financial Press Overview:A number of Dow components were in the news today as the Dow rose slightly to a new 13-month high. Home Depot lost more than 2% in today's session after reporting earnings. Both Home Depot and Target provided a disappointing outlook for the 'holiday shopping season' and suggested a meaningful recovery might not occur until the second half of next year. This news pressured the entire retail sector.
Today's economic data releases were not seen as significant market-moving events. There was a 0.3% increase in the October Producer Price Index (expectations had been for a rise of 0.5%). Core producer prices were off 0.6% in October (here, economists had been expecting a 0.1% increase). The Producer Price Index is a gauge for wholesale inflation.
In October, industrial production was up 0.1%, less than the anticipated 0.4%. The data is thus a reflection of the fact that US industrial output is not growing as fast as some had anticipated. Consensus estimates were however met for the newest data on capacity utilization which came in at 70.7%.
Showing leadership today was Dow component Microsoft. The company's stock has been on a tear over the past few weeks, today closing at an 18-month high on the heels of a brokerage upgrade which suggests good prospects for Microsoft's Windows 7 release, as well as for the holiday season. Also benefiting from an upgrade was Dow component Exxon Mobil.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009


Helicopter-Ben Bernanke has taken to blowing bubbles in the financial markets with ease.
He is surely making EZ-Al "bubbles" Greenspan proud.
They have so much in common it's hard to tell them apart. Helicopter-Ben is just as delusional as the old coot too, spewing the following bile just today: "We are attentive to the implications of changes inthe value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks toour dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability. Our commitment toour dual objectives, together with the underlying strengths of the U.S. economy, will helpensure that the dollar is strong and a source of global financial stability."
Bullshit! Ben S. Bernanke - you sir are a liar!
He is attentive to nothing of the sort. Clearly he would rather use the US currency astoilet paper than formulate a policy to protect it. Has Ben done anything to achieve hisso-called dual mandate? How has he or the others at the Fed "maximized employment orprice stability?" The dollar is not strong as Ben claims; in fact, it is so weak it is now being throttled like a rag doll.
There is no financial stability!
Let's be clear here - Ben's #1 objective is to give your money away to the Scamming Banksters on Fraud Street and to make the clown-posse in Congress happy - period.
Ben "I-love-to-throw-counterfeit-money-from-my-helicopter" Bernanke said a lot more, of course, but this was a doosey: "Weak income growth, should it persist, will restrainhousehold spending."
Weak income growth? What income GROWTH is he referring to? There is no real growth because any growth at all is being stripped away by a lower currency (inflation) and the banksters radically jacking up credit card interest rates regardless of your paymenthistory. If you have a card with Shitibank, you know what I'm talking about. Shitibank,without warning, raised all card holders' rates to 29.99%. So if you had a balance, anyincome growth is now gone. And if that wasn't bad enough, taxes and fees are going uplike mad on a State and local level across the country to make up for their revenueshortfalls.
Does this man live in the real world? Of course not - he's an Ivory Tower geek fromPrinceton who is now a lapdog for the clown-posse in DC and the banksters on Fraud Street
He prattles on... "The outlook for inflation is also subject to a number ofcrosscurrents...blah, blah, blah."
Uh-huh, here's one of the crosscurrents you fool...THE VALUATION OF THE US DOLLAR!
With the US dollar plummeting, have you noticed gasoline prices shooting higher? Oops, there again goes that "income growth" idea...Aaand it's gone
In the end, this cartoon above captures what Bernanke really cares about...
If Helicopter-Ben really wanted to "help ensure that the dollar is strong and a source of global financial stability" then he would DO something about it rather than blather onlike the Fed-heads love to do. Here's an idea - raise interest rates to 1.5 or 2%. Holycrap - SAVERS might even get paid to save their own money, thus providing money for futureinvestments.
A 2% interest rate would end the dollar-carry trade and the ever increasing commodity prices like oil & gasoline. If the banksters can't survive with a puny 2% interest rate -screw 'em. They don't deserve to survive.
Thin the heard!

Targets Above Monday's High

Another useful chart for projecting the next move up.
Complements of my Secretary At Large, lol

Monday-November-16-Retail Sales

Review of price action on this Retail Sales Day with after market follow through and some easy notes....

Another Useful Study for Day-Trading

It helps when you have a hard working Secretary doing the research. lol

This is for the E-Mini S&P500 ( ES )

New Research/Study

The Daily Range for Monday 11/16 was 14 points
But the Globex Low to the Day High was 21.25
In the 60min chart a very frequent occurrance on the Swings Highs or Lows is 22.5 pts. This is only a long term observation that may vary by a few points.
Why is this usefull? Today my calculation from the Globex Low was 1113 and the actual HOD was 1112.25 which is only .75 pts off ! That was close enough for me since I was Long the market.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Review of Friday's Price Action

The Power Zones and the VWAP are included from the previous Day Session.
This was a Consolidation Day after a Trend Day yesterday.
Setups are circle in red.The Entry technique is another process that must be executed with presicion to keep the risk down to a maximun of one point or four ticks.
The Live Performance Statement is available in Twitter.
Financial Press Overview:
The newest US consumer sentiment reports came out on Friday, and they were poor, showing an unexpected tumble. In early November, consumer confidence waned, coming in at its weakest level in three months. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers pegged its (preliminary) sentiment indicator for November at a reading of 66.0 (October's value had been a significantly higher reading of 70.6); meanwhile, economists had been expecting the latest reading to come in at 71.0. The accompanying Reuters statement suggested that '.... importantly, the decline in confidence was already in place before the announced increase in the unemployment rate to 10.2 percent on November 6'.
In housing-related news, the National Association of Realtors see home prices across the US improving in 2010, increasing by an estimated 4%. Furthermore, home resales should also keep rising in conjunction with the anticipated continuing housing market recovery. Specifically, home resales for 2010 are currently projected to reach 5.7 million while mortgage rates are estimated to average roughly 5.7%.
The major indexes recovered smartly yesterday from yesterday's lone slide, although they pulled back strongly later in the session. The up-move was precipitated by renewed US dollar weakness (prompted by the largest increase in a decade in the US trade deficit), strong earnings from Walt Disney (which reported a rise in both quarterly profit and revenue), and better-than-expected results from a number of retailers (including J.C. Penney and Abercrombie & Fitch).
It is interesting to point out (as some skeptic market observers have) that Friday's rally occurred on the heels of a much worse than expected reading on consumer sentiment. Some market observers use this as yet another example of a growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, calling the current rally nothing more than an increasingly irrational momentum trade where technical aspects (cheap money, low interest rates, a sagging US dollar) are overshadowing poor underlying fundamentals, for now continuing to provide a strong tailwind for the bulls.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Another COHIBA Day....

Not a bad day after all....

Resourcefullness helps in trading

This level back in 2008 was there for the taking.
Is like having a free library at your disposal.

Reversal at Weekly Resistance

What do you expect, 1122 50% Weekly retracement on a Veterans Day with thin volume ? NO way !

I am been watching this so long that it becomes second nature.

Hey, I am trading this thing and posting this for others, so what do you expect...

Pre-Opening Game Plan

Breakout overnight from an NR24 on Veterans Day.

There is two ways to enter Long . Sometimes the price acton will reverse after the open at the BUY Zone or below it.

The Buy Rules : as long as price is not more than 2 points below the Green MA and there is a buy setup then the Long entry is executed.

If there is no buy setup then the Entry Trigger is at the break of the Green MA if the price is below it with a stop loss of only one point. In other words when price goes through the Green MA it will fill the BUY STOP Order and wil continue up without any retrace.

There is another factor to consider and that is the fact that this is trading very close to a Weekly Resistance at 1103 so the first exit should be at least at that level and the Daily RSI ( 2) is at 99

Monday, November 9, 2009

After the Open Review

Price action at the open came very close to touching the Green MA and a Vertical steep climb followed. Only one opportunity to enter Long as the market never got close to the RED MA

There was one famous character in Twitter that sold 1085 at 1:23pm ( BAD Entry ! ) against the Trend and even added another at 1087 ! lol

Then he posted to his followers to "stay long" after he was stoped out for a loss ! what a ....

The break-out above Friday’s high began with a “gap” above Friday’s settlement. Acceleration in the direction of the “gap” was apparent at the open; with the potential of price re-test resistance at the overnight high.

After trading above 1080 during the first hour of the session [A-B period] the price action took on the characteristic of a short covering rally, i.e. price continued to grind higher without a pull-back. The up move consisted of previous sellers being squeezed out of their prior positions. The lack of pull-back made for difficult intraday trading for many inexperienced and overconfident traders.

However, as today profile illustrates if you were set to buy the high or the MA and hold the positions for hours, there were occasionally opportunities where price did not auction back to its starting point and managed to grind higher.

The continued up-side movement, with slow momentum was fueled by a decline in the U.S. dollar, which lost ground against a basket of major currencies.Will not be surprise if the market gives back half of this rally tomorrow.

The characteristic short covering is further confirmed by the below average volume traded on the NYSE as 3,597 million shares were traded on the S&P 500 today. This volume output is 13% below the index's average daily volume generated over the past three months.

As there was no pull-back during the session, there is no strong indication of micro intraday support, i.e. initiated buying confirmed by responsive buying on the pull-back resulting in a higher high. Micro support during the session, if you’re willing to consider FLAT lining no action as support developed at 1082 / 1983.

In the absence of economic data and key earnings releases, market participants focused predominantly on the once again slumping US dollar and the stimulating effect its weakness continues to have on equity and commodity markets. The greenback pulled back significantly today based on news from the Group of 20 ('G-20') meeting. The G-20 have unanimously decided to continue the pattern of keeping stimulus measures in place and interest rates low. It was US Treasury Secretary Geithner's view that economic stimulus should remain in place for the time being; this drove the US Dollar Index back toward its 2009 lows.

The strength that the equity market has shown over the past six sessions may be confounding for some investors, particularly the surge we have seen since last Friday's announcement that the US had now hit an unemployment rate of over 10%. Rather than being troubled by such data, it actually encouraged the recent, very strong rally on the major indexes. Some market observers claim however that this strong rise may in fact be at least in part 'artificial' ( i.e., not supported by the current economic fundamentals). The reason is that the decision to keep interest rates low around the world will ensure that a lot of 'cheap money' will continue to be pumped into the markets, boosting assets such as commodities, stocks, and currencies, particularly when the US dollar is falling. In fact, the US dollar is now being used as a carry trade vehicle.

Skeptics warn that the current rally has outrun the current improving economic fundamentals and that it could collapse once the US dollar recovers. One analyst spoke of the market rallying 'on fumes'. In a sense, the actual economic rebound taking place is being obscured by the 'artificial', dollar-driven rally in stocks and commodities.

In corporate news, Dow component Kraft was the only Dow stock that failed to rise today based on the news that its planned takeover of Cadbury Schweppes (for roughly 9.8 million British pounds) had failed. In earnings news, Electronic Arts announced a net loss of $391 million for its second fiscal quarter and said it would reduce its workforce by 17%. Adding further to the dire job loss picture, Sprint Nextel announced today it will axe 2000 to 2500 jobs in an effort to cut labor costs.

Here is a not so brilliant strategy that worked like a champ

As posted previously the ES did a breakout above Friday's High ( GAP +12Pts )

The odvious bullish reaction to the Unemployment Report was one clue.Many novice traders tend to fade the gap without been aware of the statistics of gaps been filled after the open.

There was no Long Entry Signal until 5mins after the 9:30am Open.

Here is another brilliant strategy

As promised here is another unique strategy by an " experienced " GURU:

Strategy: " SELL Against the strong

UP Trend , scaling in and place a stop loss of your own choosing " ( he never specified the proper risk level )

" The market is DEAD" posted the GURU in Twitter. lol

"Looks like $ES_F going for prior rejection at 1091-ish. Very steady uptrend no down rotations. Not normal/agreed" said another FAITHFUL follower, LOL

A classic case of The Blind Leading The Blind ! ....

Saturday, November 7, 2009

The Big Cash Pit Traded Index

Volume Moving Average has been decreasing divergent to the price peaks. The Blue MA is beginning to turn flat. If Long from below then it is wise to move a stop just below 1018.66

Another technical clue is everytime it has crossed the Red MA price has GAPed UP so next week it should do the same.

Here is the Recap of Friday

Friday,November 06:

Today's volume output on the S&P 500 was 3,430 million shares. This volume production exceeds the index's average daily volume generated over the past three months by 18%.

Financial Press Overview:Today's release of the pivotal government 'jobs report' (the nonfarm payrolls data for October) was followed by further bullish action on the major indexes. Stocks rose on the news that US unemployment had surged to its highest level since 1982, coming in at 10.2%, well above the 9.9% unemployment rate economists had been expecting. According to some analysts, the market perceived this news as bullish because the rate of change at which additional job losses are occurring is now slowing. Non-farm payrolls declined by 190,000 last month (exceeding the consensus estimate of 175,000) and thereby continued their recent trend where each monthly decline is somewhat smaller than the previous. However, other data released today underscores just how weak the US labor market remains: For instance, the average number of hours worked per week is at its lowest level since 1964; the average length of time that the officially unemployed are out of work has now risen to 26.9 weeks (up significantly from 22.5 weeks in May of 2009); unemployment among teenagers in the workforce is now above 25%.

A further reasons for today's market upswing is investors' perception that with unemployment numbers still so high, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates anytime soon, thereby continuing the trend of supplying 'cheap money' that can find its way into the market. Today's unemployment numbers perhaps explain why the Fed adopted such a dovish stance in its policy statement on Wednesday, where it had kept interest rates unchanged. The Fed spoke of maintaining 'exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.' It appears that the Fed will now remain on hold until at least late 2010.

Faced with a weak labor market, new government efforts to end - or at least stem - job losses have recently been announced. Yesterday, Congress voted overwhelmingly to extend unemployment benefits by up to 20 weeks. Today, President Barack Obama signed a new economic stimulus bill totaling $24 million into law that will give prospective homebuyers tax incentives, provides additional jobless benefits, and allows business tax cuts. Obama was quoted as saying that 'The need for such a measure was made clear by the jobs report that we received this morning.... sobering number that underscores the economic challenges that lie ahead'. He promised that 'I will not rest until all Americans who want work can find work.'

In other top news today, a brokerage upgrade of General Electric boosted the Dow and the industrial sectors. GE's stocks surged more than 6% after being upgraded to 'outperform' based on the belief it would make some major divestitures over the next few years. Also boosting the Dow was a Goldman Sachs upgrade of Dow component Travelers (to 'buy' from 'neutral'), a key player in the insurance sector. In the tech sector, Amazon (which recently reported stellar earnings) was also upgraded; the stock rose nearly 5% today on the news. Market observers say these, and other, upgrades balanced the broad market in view of the crucial jobs report.

The Long Term View from a Day-Trading Perspective

Here is the Double Bottom and the reversal of trend. The reaction to the negative friday report is a clue that this market is going UP. Unless something extraordinary happens next week.

Final Review on Payrolls ( NFP ) Day

The Opening Range Breakout was a classic trade setup that has a fairly good probability of success and requires a stop of only one point ( low risk )and has a high reward if done properly at the open.

All positions were closed before the end of the session.

On Sunday Globex session I expect the low of this friday session NOT to be tested.

Continuation Of Review After The Open

The Reversal was expected but the only clue was the High Volume Bar at the Buy Zone.
I was expecting the rest of the day to develop into a Triangle Formation withing the range established by the reaction to the NFP Report
Two Vertical Moves ( NOT Rotation ! ) followed by an uptrend with a range of 10 points then side ways til closing time.

Pre-Market Plan For Action and Review on NFP Day

Payrolls Report pushed prices down to the 60min Buy Zone below the VAL and the rest of the day was contained withing the range established by the Reaction to the Report.

There were many good setups but that is not the purpose of this illustration.

My Live Day Trading Performance is available for inspection in Twitter.

Another Wrong Projection

I find this many times in different "Trading"Blogs.
This is the day after FED Day(FOMC). This GURU made the wrong analysis in his Blog for his " Private Subscribers" lol
Much can be learn by looking at other peoples mistakes.But the irony is that most people don't look at their own mistakes and correct them.
This guy was so ignorant and arrogant that he failed to post an outcome of his WRONG Intraday Prediction !
These are the GURUs that later want to charge hundreds of dollars for his Analysis Paralysis.
Then he sends me an email " I simply gave them the possibility"
OH ! It was only a " possibility" ? with NO stop loss? and you did not even post the results after the fact FOR EVERYONE TO SEE ?
I know, you want people to pay you first for that " Private Blog " .
Where is your HIGH ETHICAL STANDARDS? and why don't you post you Live Trading Results or your Simulated Blog Trading Results for everyone to see?
Don't worry there are many other BULLSHIT Traders like you. Will find them for you so that they join your BULLSHIT TRADING CLUB.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Fed Day Recap

As widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold today, and in fact announced it would keep them low for an extended time (they are currently virtually at zero, with the target rates for Fed funds ranging between 0.00% and 0.25%). Trading around Fed announcements is typically very volatile, so market analysts suggest investors should not read too much into the fact that stocks traded lower late in today's session. The Fed's policy statement did not bring any surprises, with the Fed stating that it will 'continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability.' Prior to the announcement, some investors had feared that the Fed might announce a tightening policy, starting to remove liquidity from the market. Rather than blaming the Fed, one market observer commented that today's strong late-day pullback should be attributed to an influential banking analyst making a bearish call on the financial sector.

Several key economic data releases were made today, one of which suggested the pace of job losses in the US might be slowing. According to payroll services firm ADP, in October the private sector shed a further 203,000 jobs (227,000 jobs were lost in September). This number exceeded economists' expectations for a loss of 198,000 jobs in October. Note that the APP report is considered a precursor to Friday's official government nonfarm payrolls report (the 'jobs report'). A second unemployment-related report was however somewhat more positive: Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas had calculated that the number of planned layoffs in October was down 16% as compared to September, with 55,679 layoffs planned last month.

In other economic news, the Institute for Supply Management came out with its latest reading on the services sector, showing a modest decline in its Services index from a reading of 50.9 in September to a value of 50.6 in October. Economists had however been expecting a rise on the index to 51.5.

After the bell, Cisco reported earnings. Although the company announced a 19% drop in profits as well as a 13% cut in revenue for its fiscal first quarter, Cisco's CEO suggested business conditions had bottomed out roughly half a year ago and that estimated revenues for the current quarter would beat estimates. Cisco's stock gained ground in after-hours trading. Meanwhile, QUALCOMM reportedly missed its earnings estimates, saying its profits declined 50% compared to last year; however, the stock also rose somewhat in after-hours trading. In other tech company news, Microsoft announced it would lay off a further 800 workers around the globe (bringing the total number of layoffs at the company to 5800 for 2009).

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Review of Final Hours and Observations

More setups if you knew what to look for but limited scale out opportunities and only one Vertical Rotation move at lunch time.
The big news story of the day was Warren Buffet's 'categorical bet on the US economy', the billionaire investor's announcement of his largest ever acquisition, the outright purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe. It's the second-largest railroad company in the US and Buffet will acquire it for $34 billion. Buffet was quoted as stating that this deal was '... an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States. I love these bets'. He added that ''I basically believe this country will prosper and you'll have more people moving more goods 10 and 20 and 30 years from now, and the rails should benefit. It's a bet on the country, basically.' Prior to today's deal, Buffet's company Berkshire Hathaway already owned a large stake in Burlington Northern since 2007; it now plans to buy the rest of the company, for a total value of $34 billion. The transaction still requires shareholder approval and approval from antitrust regulators.
Yesterday, we noted that Ford had come out with surprisingly optimistic car sales data (as opposed to truck sales data) for the third quarter. Today, GM also came out with positive news, announcing its first monthly gain in US sales in close to two years. Toyota also reported an improvement. GM's October sales were up 4% compared to October 2008; Ford's were up 3%. All carmakers will be tested in the near future however, as the US government's Cash for Clunkers program (now completed) has contributed significantly to their bottom line - how well will carmakers do without it?
Morgan Stanley downgraded the technology sector from 'attractive' to 'cautious' today, cutting its view of Dow component Intel (which is part of the reason the Dow lagged behind the other indexes today).The rise in the US dollar continues, with the greenback now near a one-month high. Typically, this puts pressure on commodity and materials stocks, but the S&P 500 was still able to achieve modest gains. Gold was up as well, in spite of its usual negative correlation to the dollar.
In key earnings news, MasterCard posted better-than-expected third quarter earnings today but spoke of macro-economic weakness and higher marketing expenses. Dow component Johnson & Johnson reaffirmed its earnings outlook for fiscal 2009, but the company is planning to lay off 6% to 7% of its global workforce of 117,000 employees by 2011, hoping to save up to $1.7 billion per year. The company's healthcare group is seeing strong competition from generic drugmakers.
Other than vehicle sales (discussed above), the sole economic data released today pertained to September factory orders. New orders received by US factories were up 0.9%, more than expected. Tomorrow is a crucial economic news day, with the Federal Reserve releasing its latest verdict on interest rates and issuing its policy statement. As well, the ADP Employment Report for October will be released.

Review Of Pre-Close Price Action

Second Consoladation day before Fed Day

Here is one hour before the close.

Follow -Up and Execution

Execution of first trade is done as expected, then market pulls back to previous POC and consolidation takes place.

The next entry with the trend should be at the Buy Zone due to the fact that his is another consolidation ( Daily Doji ) session before the big event tomorrow: FED Day.

Pre-Market Plan For Action

Today I made a wrong decision:
I opened my mind to new ideas and decided to attend a presentation Interview of a trading Guru.This event was announced in Twitter.
After almost one hour of babbling away about all the smart people he knew and how important he felt among all the genuises, and old history of Microsoft, this guy never came to a final point of his long boring speech and never explained his value as a trading GURU ! He was changing topics without any valuable point or conclusions !
So, I waited patiently for something good and valuable out of this interview and came empty handed. Not one single point or trading tip ! Waisted my whole time.
Conclusion: If this GURU is such a genius as he implied why is he not working for NASA or some other prestigious research institution instead of spending so much time in Twitter were the regular average educated normal people are? and next time I choose to view an interview I will do more research about the qualifications and merits of the interviewer.

Review Of Price Action

Two reversals intraday is part of the Consolidation process and was to be expected after Widest Range Day of the past 140 days ( WR140 ).
Wednesday is FED Day and Friday is Payrolls ( NFP ). Fasten you seatbelts for the big swings coming up.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Market Action was both Humorous and Predictable

On Saturday, Oct 31st,

If there is no more downside follow through on Sunday night Globex session, then it will retrace back up to the 1048 to 1052 range.

Today that is exactly what transpired, the high was 1049.50, within the range predicted on Saturday.

But here is the funny part of the day.When the previous low was broken down, many traders and even " trading educators" were projecting more downside in Twitter.

But there was no catalyst or news to keep driving the market lower !, so I started laughing and at the same time restraining my urge to warn these other traders to exit their short positions or take profits.

Then the market started to reverse, or a normal pullback in a intraday downtrend, and I was reading so many Twitter postings of " sell it here" ! . I could not contain my laughter, it just was so funny!.

The market retraced back up more than 62%. I saw it coming and even took a long position which resulted in a handsome profit.

Early in the session, stocks rallied on a batch of positive economic news: The Institute for Supply Management announced that in October, US manufacturing activity had grown at the fastest pace since the spring of 2006, with the ISM Manufacturing Index coming in at a reading of 55.7. Also, according to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales had increased in September for an eighth consecutive month, showing a monthly increase of 6.1%. Furthermore, in September construction spending was also up, rising 0.8% (thereby matching the gains seen in August). In all cases, results exceeded economists' expectations.

President Obama commented on the health of the US economy today, saying that the dire situation in the labor market would likely continue 'for weeks and months to come', underscoring that hiring is always a lagging indicator in a recovering economy. Obama added that 'We just are not where we need to be yet.... We've got a long way to go.' The next scheduled report on the employment picture is scheduled for this coming Friday; market observers believe it might show the US unemployment rate exceeding the 10%-mark.

There was also surprisingly optimistic news from the automotive sector, with Ford announcing it had earned close to $1 billion in the third quarter. Much of this success was achieved by extensive cost cuts, as well as by the success of the US government's Cash for Clunkers program, which delivered considerable rebates and thereby boosted sales.