Tuesday, January 29, 2013

A Fundamental Shift

Thursday, Jan 31 - 7:28am est Update :

Open Position : SHORT @ 1505.75 ,  1503

Third Target Objective : 1492.25 < has been filled for another + 13.50 pts

Total GAIN Profits : + 31.50 pts

Jaguar Trader


3:54pm est Update : 

Next Target was filled at 1495.50 < S1 > for another easy profits of + 10.25 . The current total GAIN is now + 18 Pts, next target below  : 1491

Setup for this Short Swing Trade :

               T T T  Sell Short Day
               Last Trading Day of the Month-Sell Day
               MACD Double Bearish Divergence
               R S I ( 2 ) Extreme Reading
               VIX Count Reversal
               Weekly Channel Resistance
               Transport Avrg Index Breakdown
               Too Many Bulls in StockTwits
               Proprietary Oscillator Overbought

Looks like ' FibFreak ' ( novice ) Dr ' SupremeTrades ' were the only ones that sold this morning in StockTwits. Congratulations is in order for an accurate read on price action.


3:16pm est Update : Short @ 1505.75 < highest of multiple entries >Target at 1496.75 hit and booked as predicted at 10:11am today

" Given sustained rally, seeing many suckered into old how much farther can it go mentality & stubbornly shorting. Don't " FT71 < WRONG !

10:11am est > $ES_F < Will go to 1496.75 < Key Support

8:30am est > booked profits : + 7.75 pts Short @ 1505.75

6:02am est SOLD again 1505.75 at Key Level : 1506

4:14pm est > SOLD 1505.75 second lot

1:39 pm est > SOLD 1503

12:49 pm est > Will exit Intraday  Long  and reverse > Will SELL 1503 < Now trading at 1501.75

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Swing Trade Final Target Wins Again

As expected the final target: 1494.50 for this winning Swing Trade has been accomplished.

Total Frofit GAIN for this Swing Trade : + 176.50 pts > Ten Consecutive Home Runs !

Jaguar Trader

The BULL is Alive

The Swing Position is Open ,

The Wall Street Journal ran a story that independent research firms report orders for AAPL iPhone screens from its various Asian suppliers had dropped over 50%. This caused a steep dive in APPL stock and cleared out stop orders under $500, which was a critical price level that had held since mid-November

Apple closed at $500.00 per share on Friday, January 18th, 2013. This was options expiration. If you think this was a random coincidence, please crawl back in your hole and continue drinking the cool-aid. You are beyond help and will continue to lose your hard earned money.

You need to understand how the institutions maximize profit on these options they sell. They charge a premium for each options sold. Whether a call or a put, they all have a strike price they are sold at. The strike is the value the buyer is betting the price will be above for a call and below for a put. In the case of Apple Inc. should a call be bought with a strike price of $500.00, the buyer would only make money if the call closes above $500.00. The more above $500.00, the more profitable the option becomes on options expiration day. The same thing occurs with puts. If puts are bought with a strike of $500.00, the buyer makes money the lower it goes below that key $500.00 level. Lastly. an option will expire 100% worthless if it closes at the strike price. If this happens, the institutions maximize profit by taking the entire premium. Each options expiration, this means millions of Dollars to institutions as pure profit.

The scam concludes when institutions analyze and isolate where a stock MUST close to maximize profit. They push a stock to that level using their billions of Dollars and rape the average investor who plays the options in hopes of hitting a home run.

Short Sellers cashing in on the death of AAPL will NOT stop this rally.

 The smooth transition of power and the inauguration of President Obama should provide additional short term support to the current market. Market stats are also favorable this year based on several measures including relative performance under democratic presidents and the January effect or calendar ranges. On a pure price basis we are getting a bit extended in the SPY.

Long @ 1456.50 Initiated with 10 contracts with a current total profit Gain of + 136.25 pts
How do you like that Boston ! ?

Jaguar Trader

Monday, January 21, 2013

Swing Position Update

5:15pm est > Price Hit and Closed a - 50% Fibonacci Target of 1491.25 > + 34.50 pts

Next Target : 1494.50 < Long 1456.50


4:15pm est Update  : Swing Position Long @ 1456.50

The next target was hit for another + 33.50 pts of profits booked. Both the monthly 2008 High and the Daily Fib Ext of - 23.6 % at 1482.75 and 1488 were acheived as forecasted on Jan 17 at 4:25pm > >  " .... "1482.75 was the Monthly High in Jan 2008  and 1488 is a Fib Ext. of - 23.6% "

The next target remains at 1494.50 only 4 1/2 points away !


3:55pm est > Good, Mr Anonymous from Bramptom, Ontario, Canada < uuuurr must be cold up there, dude ! finally replied, but he did not take the trade when it was posted on Jan 13 and did not take the Short trade posted before the market open on Monday night January 21st. Hey, any good skiing up there ? keep it warm up there.Thanks for the reply.

At least people from Canada are polite with a sense of courtesy.


2:36 pm est - Swing Position Update : Long @ 1456.50

Next target objective has been reached and booked.The total GAIN is now : + 101.75 pts

Hope you took the trade there Eddie from San Juan Capitrasno, CA.. Looks like the other followers mentioned below did not take it.

Jaguar Trader


11:06am est >  The 1476.25 Key Level held as expected.Looks like everyone in StockTwits missed it !

 So, visiters from Houston,Tx. ,Brampton, Ontario and Boston did you take advantage of this trade?

10:28am est > There, next target filled and booked as predicted + 7.25 Total Gain : +19.75 pts

9:51am est > Will go to 1476.25 > SHORT @ 1483.75


New Short Term Setup > This trade will be executed in a separate account only for Day Trading :

4:06am est > Next target objective has been hit for + 8.50 pts booked profits > total Gain on this trade :  +12.50 pts.

11:54 pm + 4 pts profits booked

11:05 pm est : SOLD 1483.75 < multiple contracts or Lot

Trade Setup :   MACD Bearish Divergence
                        R ( 2 ) overbought reading
                        Swing Oscillator overbought
                        Long Term Key Resistance Zone
                        VIX Count


The next target objective has been achieved and filled at 1482.75 as forecasted on Thursday , Jan 17 at 9:17am ( read previous posts )

Today is a Holiday short 2 hour session with very low volume.The range is probabbly no more than 4 pts. in the ES > March 2013 Futures contract.

Long @ 1456.50 > booked profits + 72.50 pts or $ 3,625.

Stay tune ....

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Bull Market at a Key Point

 Expecting a stall at exactly 1482.00 to 1484  that could show sufficient stopping power to terminate the rally. When we get there, we’ll want to tighten up with an impulse leg-based stop-loss , Shooting for a 1470.25 long term target.

Even for someone who expects the economy to worsen in 2013, as I do, there is no evading the bullish implications of the facts shown in the technical picture. Most immediately, the logic of it suggests we’ll see new all-time highs near 1553.50 in the weeks ahead.

So what happens now if the futures simply blow past our target? That’s always a possibility, and it would have undeniably bullish implications going forward. But even then, we wouldn’t expect the E-Mini S&P to much exceed 1548.25, a longer-term objective.

Much as I’d like to say we can go back to being bearish now that we’ve at least considered the bullish case, we are in fact obliged by the evidence to be bullish. If there’s any hope I can hold out to permabears, it is that a high at 1553.50 — representing a headline breakout, by 34 points, above the 2007 top — could in theory set up one of the most enticing bull traps in stock-market history.

Open Position : Long @ 1456.50  with + 45.50 pts booked on multiple contracts.Shooting for 1494.50 long term target

Jaguar Trader

Friday, January 18, 2013

Bullish Formations that Many did NOT want to See

Bears, pessimists and novices had another bad day.

There were many in StockTwits that ignored and failed to see these formations, you know who you are, even when there was a warning posted on this Blog 24 hours before the breakout to new highs.Called it arrogance, ignorance or just plain incompetence and many of them called themselves " Professionals " ! ?

Another Swing Trade Wins and worth + 21 pts per contract , called ahead of time , executed and booked, and still Open for more profits.

Thank you to the WRONG shorts who continue to play fortune teller. Without your arrogance and predictable behavior  this swing trade would not be possible.

Jaguar Trader aka TraderTopGun

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Market Status & Observations

Someone name ' AngryBen '  in StockTwits asked me how to become a subcriber. This person is not even a follower ! < first pre-requisite requirement.Talk about no common sense !


9:17am est Swing Position Update : Long @ 1456.50 > ALL 5  Targets reached and filled.Total open profits + 70 pts. > Next Target : 1482.75 < Monthly High in January 2008 > as described to the exclusive subscribers.

Trade Plan wins AGAIN.


Hey, Brad, did you get you head out of your ass? < This idiot was Short and he sends me a message in my StockTwits Inbox > " You are wrong and I'm right Sold Short....blah, blah, blah..." < Hope you learned something, stupid shit !

By the way : " The poor high of yesterday was signal of more upside. Market usually repairs the profile to make these highs look more symmetrical." < Quote from Twitter

The poor High was NOT the reason for the breakout to higher prices, you idiot !

12am Thursday, Jan 17 : Market Update and Position Status:

There is a Bull Flag in the Nasdaq , another Bull Flag in the Russell 2 K and another Bull Flag in the ESH13 < Long position is open and targets remain as specified by email to my long term faithfull subscribers and followers.

Word to the Wise:

  Any good Analyst knows from long term experience that technical formations in charts RULE OVER Indicators, News, and Noise or erratic swings, and especiallly over a any "Gutt Feeling "or " Fortune Telling Opinions "

A final WARNING to all Short Sellers > There are Bull Flag Formations ALL Over US Indicies Charts ! < BEWARE


3:45pm - Target reached for Long position > Done for the day.

Review : Short Target 2nd Objective  not achieved > Price action reversal and breakout in the 6th Hour is bullish if it closes above 1466.75 then there will be a Gap up tomorrow and it will be sold at  1482.75 to 1488


8am est Update : Short Entry from 1465.25 > Trade Setup works again. First target hit and filled + 8.50 pts next target : 1455

This is the same idiot that accused me of bragging several months ago because he can't predict price action and is not willing to learn either !


Long Position Liquidated due to failure to reached target and other price action clues

New Position Short in the 6th Hour : Sold 1465.25 > Trade Setup available upon request


4:10pm est > Update : Price action gives clue to possible gap down tomorrow to 1455.


2:03pm est > There as predicted > pattern repeats again > very predictable...


12:38pm est Update : > Test of 1461.50 is a buy ....1:40pm est > Any pullback to 1463 is a buy, price action is making a bullish formation that will probably breakout in the 5 or 6th Hour of RTH Session.

Looking at the profile for Friday, Jan 11 the poor high and poor low made is indicative of short term traders control of price action and the absence of longer term players which has an increase potential or subject to liquidation breakdown.Volume in the E-Mini S&P500 Futures was only 1,122K down 27% from previous day.

Market Internals are strong but no increase in volume and the leader of all Indecies, The Transportation Average has crossed to the downside the Daily Uptrend Channel. That means we can expect a pullback on the other Indecies including the S&P500.

Another significant development is that last week there was a record 23 Billion dollars inflow into equities funds which is a bullish sign for the up trend.

Long Position : 1462.50 > 8.50 Pts in profits < See previous post ...Expecting a pullback after a test of 1471.50 >  using 1464.50-1466 as Bull/Bear Zone > After the first objective target then 1473.25 is the second objective.

Friday, January 11, 2013

Todays Trading Plan

9:40am est : 1463.50 is a buy then 1462.50 < 10:36am est > Long 1462.50

As long as 1460.25-1462.50 Bull/Bear Zone holds, expecting a test of 1471 -1473.50 today

Overnight Support : 1463.50-1464.75

Swing position from 1455 is closed

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Swing Position Update

4:30pm est Update : Fourth and final target: 1457.50 filled and booked for + 73 pts profits

Note : 1458 was a very important CLVN in the long term Composite and 1457.25 was also a key level from Oct 05, 2012.

Total points on this Swing Trade : + 178 pts or $ 8,900 per contract in only two days and 2 points of risk.Congratulations on the followers and subscribers that took this trade.



10:13am - Update : Long @ 1384.50 ( See previous Setup ) > Third Target hit and filled for booked profits of + 68 pts


Swing Postition : Long @ 1384.50 > booked profits now + 63.50 pts < HOME RUN !

First trade of the new year WINS !

See you at the top

JaguarTarder ( StocksTwits )

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Swing trade Update

As posted in StocksTwits on Dec 31 at 12:14am or 14 minutes after midnight :
" Bullish Inverted Head & Shoulders > US Fiscal issues will be resolved > will buy at key levels "

New Swing Trade Initiated at 1384.50 with a separate Swing Trading Account followed by my subscribers. Note : there is another separate day trading account that is followed by a few subscribers.

Swing trade is now + 39.25 pts in profit . The ES market closed at 1423.75. Profits was taken and booked as posted in StocksTwits : @JaguarTrader

The Trade Setup :   Daily Inverted H & S Formation < 80% reliable
                                RSI ( 2 ) Reading : 2 > Day 3 of High Reliability setup
                                VIX Count : high extreme reversal signal
                                Daily Fibonacci Retracement Zone : 61.8%
                                Other Price Action Clues available to subscribers

Happy and prosperous New Year to all

JaguarTrader aka : TraderTopGun