Wednesday, November 30, 2016

How to Read Bull and Bear Market Phases - Accumulation, Participation & Distribution

Dow Theory is a cornerstone of price analysis and its principles have been time-tested over decades. An understanding of the three market phases and the trend cycle concepts within the Dow Theory can help traders make sense of the way price moves and shed new light on how bull and bear markets are created.

The Dow theory distinguishes between the accumulation phase, which is where the ‘smart money’ starts to accumulate positions very early on, and the public participation phase where the trend has become apparent to the ‘typical investor’ and retail traders. The third distribution phase is the final stage where the market tops and the smart money is unwinding their positions while the average investor is usually still adding to their positions. Let’s now take a closer look at the individual trend phases and what is important to know here.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

November 28- Taylor Trading Sell Short Day in EMini S&P Futures

The Taylor Trading Technique views market moves as a series of reactions to what the market has done recently. Knowing this help us to anticipate what a market is likely to do, based on what it did in the previous session.

For the EMini S&P futures, Friday was a breakout buy day. On Friday it opened near the session low, rallied above the previous session high and continued higher, closing near the top of the daily range.

In reaction to this, we anticipated a Taylor Trading Sell Short day for Monday. For a TTT Sell Short day we look for the market to open near the session high, (possibly) make a failed attempt to rally above the previous day high and then proceed to sell off over the course of the session, finally closing near the daily low.

For a standard TTT Sell Short day today, we would watch the Friday high of 2211.75 as the reference price. However, I often view the Sunday night trade as a session unto itself, as it occurs after the longest weekly break between sessions and it often trades distinctly from Friday’s action

It was for this reason ( Sunday as a separate trading session) that when we would write this morning’s Trade Recommendation to my exclusive subscribers where I suggested we use the overnight high (2208.50) as a lower reference price for the Sell Short day. If the market was unable to reach Friday’s high, the high from Sunday night could be a good reference price level for deciding whether we could look for a Sell Short day / failed rally trade setup.


Thursday, November 10, 2016

November 10 – Early Session Short in EMini SP Futures

The 8:30 AM open was 2168.25, and the first move was a rally to 2178.50. This reinforced my conviction about the short as it made the market look all the more like a TTT Sell Short day.

This initial rally failed as the market was unable to push above the overnight high of 2180.50. By 9 AM it moved below Wednesday’s low, triggering our short sale. Our initial stop loss could go in the 2174 area, roughly the midpoint between the day session high and our entry.

The ensuing selloff was strong, as anticipated, making a session low of 2147.75 by 9:35. A double bottom made around 10:10 was a signal to cover shorts as bargain hunters stepped in (for now.) If you wanted to look for a second trade, you could look to re short if the 21477.75 double bottom was broken.

Sunday, November 6, 2016

November 1st - Breakout Trade in EMini SP Futures

Here is the Breakout Trade in EMini SP Futures

The EMini S&P, NASDAQ, Dow and Russell all had inside days on Monday, and the NASDAQ and Russell had narrow range days as well. The breakout setup told us to look for a strong move in one direction today, and we would look for a trade to take advantage of this.

Today was a reminder to not overthink trading. As today was day one of an FOMC meeting, I assumed the odds of a breakout move were lower than normal, as is often the case in the session before their announcement. In hindsight, given that the Fed is expected to not move ahead of the Presidential election, the Fed meeting wasn’t the caution signal it normally is.