Sunday, March 17, 2013

New Swing Trade and Updates


Thursday - March 21 Swing Trade Update : SHORT ZBM13 ( T-Bonds ) at 143.29 > Final target reached and nailed for :
 + 43 ticks or $ 1,343.75 per contract traded. Indicator Signals works again


10:30am est Update : The Short position is a winner : + 31 ticks or Full Point > + $968.75 GAIN


9:00pm est > T-Bonds ( 30yr ) Futures- June Contract ( ZBM13 ) : SOLD 143.29
This is a very rare opportunity with high probability setup, will add if it goes higher.


1:30 pm Update : Target # 3 has been reached and booked, for + 25 pts added to the previous Gains. Short Position from 1557 is working as planned.Congratulations is in order for those private subscribers that took the trade with faith and conviction.

An interesting note is that most StockTwits $ES_F traders did NOT see the reversal coming and/or ignored the WARNING posted on this Blog due to their incompetence, arrogance or just plain lack of knowledge.

Tue - Mar 19 Swing Trade Update : SHORT @ 1557 > see below

Well, what do you know, the expected D-Day developed into a continuation of the downtrend to my surprise and delight. The Day Trading Plan is also working as expected.


Tuesday, March 19 : ES Key Levels and Trade Plan :

Markets should be somewhat rotation inside yest value area. FOMC meeting starts - ECON calendar is very light. Markets all contained within yesterdays value area overnight - YM came down and tagged 360 last weeks POC

The Key Bull / Bear Zone : 1543.50 - 1545.50 . If this zone doesn't hold then the next significant Zone is  from 1539 - 1541. Above there is 1550.75 - 1552.75 with 1555.75 as the Key Resistance above that zone. It should be a D - Day with no directional trend today , waiting for the FED, unless some unexpected EU news hits the wire.


WARNING of Eminent Market Top was given on this Blog > Wed, March 13 :

SHORT Position from 1557 was initiated on Friday , Mar 15 at 8:58am est.

Trade Setup :      > Bearish Head and Shoulders Formation
                              > VIX Count
                              > MACD Bearish Divergence
                              > Daily Doji at Key Institutional Level
                              > Cycle Indicator Overbought
                                >    RSI ( 2 ) Overbought Reading at Key Resistance
                              > Other Clues as adviced to subscribers

The Bull / Bear Zone : 1549 - 1546

The Market has GAP down 20.50 pts during Globex, the min target is available upon request.You must be a long term follower of this Blog and write an opinion or comment about this trade in StockTwits,thank you for your cooperation.


Monday, March 11, 2013

Swing Trade Final Target and Updates

Friday, March 15- 2:40am > Update : Long @ 1544.25 > booked profits : + 14.50 pts plus previous position Total : + 21.50


10:25am est Update : Market action dictated a change in bias by way of price action clues
and the Short Position was reversed to Long @ 1544.25 as adviced to private subscribers, no StockTwits notice due to the activity of too many ' Incompetent Gurus for a Fee ' .

Long position will be maintained as long as the key level  > 1545.50 is not violated.


9:15am est >  If bulls can't get new highs on retail sales number the technical picture will start favoring the Bear side.....

Wednesday, March 13 > 9:16pm Globex Session ( Tue Night ) > SOLD 1549.50
Setup : FLAT Top , MACD Bearish Divergence and other Clues as indicated to subscribers.Stay Tune....Booked + 7 pts and reversed to Long.



2:30pm - Swing Trade Update : Long @ 1507.50 > Setup as explain to subscribers.To no-subscribers the Inverted H&S Bullish Formation was one of the clues.

Target # 7 has been reached and filled or booked for another + 48.25 pts profits in the March Contract. Will have to liquidate the position due to the expiration of the contract.

The Total Points Final GAIN for this Swing Trade : 251.50 pts or $ 12,575 for all targets.


Sunday, March 3, 2013

Swing Position Wins Again

Friday 8:31am Update : Target # 6 has been filled and booked for + 46 pts. The Current Total for this Swing Trade is now : + 203.25 pts or $ 10,162.50 < Home Run and is not even completed yet !

This morning before the report the majority of traders in StockTwits were positioned Short
Those shorts along with non-participants of this rally continue to scratch their heads wondering if there will ever be a pullback.The pullback will come when the key resistance is tested above.



Friday, March 08 - 6:30am est  Swing Position Update:  Target # 5 reached, filled and booked
for + 41 pts profits > Grand Total : + 157.25 pts

Today is NFP Day and the new contract is now June but the last trading day is ....

The most important thing to remember with today’s news is that we will ALWAYS need to wait 15-20 mins after this news is released to trade in the direction of the new short-term trend. The reason for this is because analysts have been looking at this news report for 2 weeks, the day after the last FOMC report was released analysts start watching for the NFP news. This means MOST asset-managers and well-funded traders have already ‘placed their bets’ in the direction they believe this news will be released at. This means that if this news comes out ‘as-expected’ we aren’t going to see much action because the market-personality has already priced-in the news. The bottom line is, whenever there is news that EVERYONE knows is coming, price-action will manifest itself in the direction as if the news had already been released.

6:30am est Wednesday, March 06 Update:

Swing Position : Long @ 1507.50 , Target # 4 achieved and booked + 36.75 pts

Current Total Points Profits : +79.50 pts



10:30am est Tuesday Update :

Position : Long 1507.50 > now + 33.75 pts, booked profits along the way at several levels



5:00am est Tuesday Mar 05 > Swing Position Update : + 22.75 pts - Trade Setup : Bullish Inverted H & S


Monday-Mar 4th, 6pm Swing Position Update Long from 1507.50 +20 pts booked

The Bear / Bull - Line In the Sand Zone is now : 1513.25 to 1515.50 and the First Support Zone is : 1518.75 to 1520.75



US Stock Market history was made this week when the Dow dropped 216 points on Monday, a one day decline that engulfed the range of the prior twenty trading days.

Unless the market tanks soon on the heels of the Sequester, which was signed into law by President Obama late Friday, it will be just an interesting footnote. The market recovered and the Dow actually closed on new highs.

This wacky price action shows just how brittle this market really is. It was mostly induced by the elections in Italy, where a 76 year old scandal plagued media tycoon ( " The Clown " ) and three time former Prime Minister, 'Fohget About It' > Silvio Berlusconi, was re-elected to head his party causing a political stalemate and casting doubt on the viability of the EU. Famous for hosting "Bunga Bunga" parties and cornering the Viagra market, he topped those acts with his recent engagement to a 27 year old bombshell (not to mention his ongoing corruption trials, associating with underage prostitutes, or the fact that he is still married).

 The Italian Political landscape makes our Capital Hill look downright enlightened. In fact, a comedian who heads another populist political party that is against the austerity plan reviled by most Italians is a critical power broker, Beppe Grillo. He will highly influence if not decide who will be next Prime Minister of Italy and what happens to the Euro as well. What is good for the corrupt Berlusconi ( 'fohrget about it' ) is not good for Italy as its stock market dropped 10% from this week and clearly needs a dose of whatever Silvio ( The Clown ) is having.

The Republicans in capitol hill are still playing political games with the economy and not supporting the President in negotiating the budget.Is to be expected since they are still bitter for loosing the election and are doing what they always have done, fighting to protect the rich from higher taxes no matter what, even if it means another recession, and they have the audacity to blame the President for the lack of budget resolution !. The U.S. government stumbled headlong on Friday toward wide-ranging spending cuts that threaten to hinder the economic recovery, after President Barack Obama and congressional Republican leaders failed to support the president and find an alternative budget plan.

The market internals and sentiment indicators all point to more upside, and seasonally March and April are historically good months for the equity markets. However, the markets short term price pattern trumps all in a brittle environment and if the average American starts to see the effects of the mandatory cuts, the market will also feel its effects. We are still high on the fact that we got thru the debt ceiling crisis, so why not this one?

The ES Daily and 4 Hr Charts have formed a Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders with minimun target of 1567.25 in the March contract, this would have to be recalculated for the June contract.

Monday Mar 04 at 2:08am est > Long @ 1507.50