Sunday, July 31, 2011

Market Status - New Swing Trade

Friday , August 5th
SHORT from key level as explained to subscribers,

The three central bank interventions (SNB, BOJ and ECB) prior to yesterday’s open were not enough to stem the waves of capitulation selling that overcame the markets. Or, perhaps, their actions were seen as pusillanimous half measures. Regardless, serious damage was done to the market and, while we might expect a short term flashy rally to emerge in the coming days, extreme caution must be exercised in this low liquidity environment.

 One thing that contradicts our present bearishness is the US money supply, where, as of yesterday’s post-close release, the Fed reported M2 is growing at 9.0% over the past 13 weeks. Long and intermediate term bear markets tend to emerge after a period of money supply contraction. Accordingly, there might be one more intermediate term rally that emerges in the coming months. For now, focus will turn to the central banks this weekend and, in particular, the Fed, which meets at its FOMC meeting next Tuesday.

To date the market has rallied 106% which is not out-of-line with other post recession rallies. In fact, if the market were to rally to 1574, it would represent a 136.4% rally off the March 2009 lows, which would be the average post recession, bull market, bottom to peak, gain.

This would also represent an almost perfect symmetrical move off the June 2010 reactionary low. Until the bulls are truly trapped, we will not have seen the top to the current rally.

One more intermediate term rally makes sense in that it would allow the market to trap some longs. According to the COT, “dumb” money was short along with “smart” money, although not extremely short. The real top to this bear market rally will take place when everybody is caught leaning the wrong way once again.

Thursday , August 04 :

SHORT from key level . Market droped below 1200 as predicted !

Subscribers are now enjoying the profits.
Cheers !

( Carl Futia has been wrong a record 12 consecutive times saying the market is going UP ! , LOL - what an Idiot ! )

Wednesday - August 3rd Update:

Back from a scuba diving voyage.

 Long Swing trade was voided due to price action during the Open on Monday August 01. I now think the market will break the June 16 low at 1252.25 and possibly the March 17 low at 1241.25 and below 1200. Looking to SELL at key level as explained to subscribers. 

Day Trading Performance Today : Win Ratio 88%
Travel and diving expences paid and ready for the next swing trade.

See You at The Beach ! and the other side of the trade...

The broad market declined Friday,July 29. The strongest decline was noted on the DJI (0.80% loss) while Russell 2000 lost only 0.26%. The DJI ended session lower for an sixth time in a row.

Of the last 16 sessions, the DJI has closed red 12 times. The NASDAQ 100 pushed to new one-week low today. The Russell 2000 made a new five-week low today. The NASDAQ 100 ended with a loss of 0.38%.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.65% while the Dow declined 0.8%. The week ends with the NASDAQ 100 lossing 2.75%; the S&P 500 showing a minus of 3.92%, and the Dow closing down 4.23%.

The S&P 500 saw volume of 3,268 million shares on this session. This was above the average daily volume of the last 3 months by 20%.

 The economy stumbled badly in the first half of 2011 and came dangerously close to contracting in the January-March period, raising the risk of a recession if a standoff orchestrated by the Republicans over the nation's debt does not end quickly.

The Federal Reserve should keep borrowing costs near rock-bottom lows for the foreseeable future if economic growth continues to disappoint, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Friday.

The government prepared Wall Street firms on Friday for the possibility it may have to delay or cancel a major round of bond sales if Congress doesn't raise the nation's borrowing limit by August 2.

The "Great Recession" was even greater than previously thought, and the U.S. economy has skated uncomfortably close to a new one this year.

Consumer sentiment fell in July to its lowest in more than two years as anxieties over stagnant wages and rising unemployment deepened, a survey released on Friday showed.

Civilian employment costs surged a steeper-than-expected 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the biggest gain since September 2008, on a jump in benefits costs, Labor Department data showed on Friday.

A top Federal Reserve official on Friday would not rule out loosening the U.S. central bank's monetary policy further, but said conditions would have to worsen.

What this Blog is all about :

Apparently there are some retarded or low IQ followers that did not understand or misinterpreted the purpose and objectives of this Blog.

To clarify  once and for all this Blog is for :

Discretionary Day Trading Techniques

Focusing on the Futures contract E-Mini S&P500 trade entries and using

The SPX Index and other proprietary indicators.

This is NOT a Blog for soliciting new investors

The Charts examples and Reviews are NOT trade recommendations

This Blog and the Twitter trading comments do NOT have to live up to anybody’s Expectations and is only for private and confidential subscribers.

Applications for subscription is NOT open to bad faith followers ( ex. BrettonwoodsII ) or inactive traders or trading pretenders committing FRAUD during market hours ( ex. Benkotrader from Germany-Twitter among others that never trade live and only show theorical unreliable bullshit S/R lines copying someone else's research and deceiving new traders ! ).

Qualification for Subscription requires the private investor group's approval to keep the bad faith and mentally unprepared or just plain negative arrogant individuals out. We DO NOT solicit anyone in this Blog.

New Swing Position is Eminent :

Will look for a new SHORT Entry during the Globex Sunday session or the RTH in the ES

Trade Setup : SOLD

No comments:

Post a Comment