Saturday, October 30, 2010

Holloween Friday - GDP Report Day 10-29

GDP came in at consensus and, while the number will likely be revised downward in subsequent months, bulls have seized the opportunity to rally off the overnight lows near 1172. 

Continuing Thursday's seasonality discussion, Bespoke Investment Group released a study yesterday that filled in the missing hole for mid-term election day Tuesday, finding bullish seasonality for the day. 

With the first-of-November on Monday and FOMC on Wednesday, there is a solid block of bullish seasonality from Monday through Wednesday afternoon. 

While on alert for a risk selloff on diminished QE expectations, the sell-the-news moment may be after the announcement itself.  Some have noted deteriorating market internals.  This does make the markets susceptible to a selloff; however, these conditions can be reversed with a trend day up, especially one with a breakaway gap, which I would look for possibly on Monday. Note that a break in the ES below critical 1164-67 support makes new highs in the coming week unlikely.

1 comment:

  1. Will be looking for 2 hr support 8 a.m. est above 6 a.m. -- 10 a.m. est above 8 a.m. etc.... to stay long -- thanks for the update.