Thursday, September 30, 2010

GDP Report Day - Review

Breakout Trade Update:

Target filled at 1153 for + 14 profits points per contract. As posted on Twitter.
Reversal scenario at key resistance level as described on Wednesday.
Today : Intraday Bearish High Volume Reversal at Weekly Resistance ( 5min -Volume Spike: 124k Ultra High )
Daily :  Bearish Pin Bar , Outside Day
New Swing Position : SHORT from 1145.75

Line In the Sand : 1141.25

Volume output on the S&P 500 rose for a third straight session, coming in at 3.67 billion shares today.

Despite some weakness over the past two sessions, the major indexes put in a stellar performance in Q3 - and the best September since 1939 . In terms of monthly performances overall, the broad market saw its best showing since April 2009.

Early on today, the market reacted positively to a revised estimate on Q2 GDP which is now estimated to come in at an annualized growth rate of 1.7% (previous estimate: GDP growth of 1.6%). As well, personal consumption is estimated to have risen by 2.2% (previous estimate: a rise of 2.0%). Meanwhile, core personal consumption data for Q2 was downwardly revised, now showing a growth in this category of one percent rather than the previously estimated 1.1%.

The latest reading on initial jobless claims (for the week ending September 25) came in better than expected: the number of such claims reportedly totaled 453,000 (consensus estimate: 457,000 initial claims). Week-over-week, the latest numbers thus show 16,000 fewer claims. Improvement was also seen among continuing claims - these fell 83,000 week-over-week to a total of 4.46 million. The latest reading on the Chicago PMI was also positive: For September, the reading was 60.4 (previous month: 56.7; consensus estimates for September: a reading of 56.0).

Because of this slew of positive economic data, the market did not take its (early) cues from Europe, as it often has in recent weeks. For instance, traders failed to show negative reactions to Moody's decision to downgrade Spain's debt, to a report indicating that Ireland's banking sector requires billions of new capital, nor to poor economic data from Japan.

Daily trading volume benefited from window dressing and end-of-quarter portfolio adjustments. In fact, today's volume was the second highest seen this month - on the NYSE, volume came in at close to 1.3 billion shares.

No comments:

Post a Comment