Monday, October 5, 2009

Sell Signal In T-Bonds 30yr Futures as expected

Posted Last Friday:
Daily Bearish Signal in the ZBZ9 30yr T-Bonds Futures means that the S&P will reverse if the T-Bonds fall. It may happen on Tuesday of next week. Also there is an 86% chance of a reversal for the SPX after it decline the last 2 days of a quarter.This suggests a decent upside edge for the next couple of days. Stay Tune.

Today that is exactly what transpired and my Sell Order was filled. Now SHORT from ZBZ9 @122-21 as posted in Twitter.The first Target is the Trend Line Support at 122-00.Second Target is 121-16.

ZBZ9 30yr T-Bonds Futures TechTalk :

Today was and Bearish Inside Day after a Bearish Daily Pin Bar on Friday.
The COT Spec and Fund Position : Net SHORT 59,678 compare that with November 2008 at 161,856. The Treasury market as a whole clearly retains more short covering capacity.


According to the newest reading on the Service Index maintained by Institute for Supply Management, the US service industry has just seen its first burst of growth in roughly a year, with the index rising to a level of 50.9 in September (from a reading of 48.4 in August). On this index, a level of 50 is the line that delineates economic growth from economic contraction). The last time the Index was near 50 was in August of last year. Improving ratings on the service Index show increasing confidence in the economy (and its recovery), one analyst commented.

A further driver of today's rally was US dollar weakness (which has lately tended to benefit stocks and commodities) and a Goldman Sachs ratings upgrade on large-cap banks; the Goldman upgrade boosted the entire financial sector. The rally was also fueled by higher oil prices. Because of a Jewish holiday, today's stock market advances occurred on the lighter than usual trading volume which can exaggerate price moves.

Looking somewhat ahead, the earnings season for the July to September quarter starts soon. It will be interesting to see whether companies that previously managed to beat second-quarter profit expectations by means of cost-cutting and job elimination will now be able to show some sustained revenue growth for the third quarter.

Also close at hand are retail sales numbers for September which should provide an early indication of the upcoming (and some say already doomed) 'holiday shopping season'. Wal-Mart, for instance has already gone on the offensive by saying it will offer about a hundred toys priced at under $10 (last year, the company offered a mere ten such low-priced toys). One retail expert suggested that it is now almost seen as a 'badge of honor' for consumers not to spend as much as they used to. About 30 retailers will be providing numbers on Thursday; these will allow retail analysts to project sales data into the future and make predictions about the next few months.

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