Thursday, October 29, 2009

Long Intraday Breakout trade ( ES )

Long 1044. Looks like the Timing Strategy worked again !
Read about it in my Blog.

Target filled at 1060 for +16 pts profits

Another winner and its time to hit the beach

in this sunny South Florida Island.

Today's strong rally was characterized by a volume production that was roughly in-line with the index's average daily volume output seen over the past three months. On the S&P 500, 4,335 million shares were traded.

The recent pattern of 'US dollar down - stock and commodity markets up' held again today, with the greenback slipping after 5 consecutive up-days (during which time the broad market showed pronounced weakness), losing 0.6% against a basket of foreign currencies. While this linkage may not hold forever, it certainly played out strongly today, with oil, gold, and the broad market bolting considerably higher while the US dollar sagged once again.

Investors however saw additional reasons why they piled back into stocks today: The big news of the day was the announcement that US third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) had increased by an annualized 3.5% (above the consensus estimate of 3.2%). In contrast, during the second quarter of this year, GDP had declined by 0.7%. The news of higher GDP readings prompted market analysts to comment that the recession was now finally over - interestingly, the news was released on the 80th anniversary of the stock market crash that had triggered the Great Depression. While some were exuberant, other market analysts commented that much of the growth seen during the third quarter was in fact based on government stimulus money, such as the Cash for Clunkers rebate program and the government tax credits for first-time homebuyers. Skeptics believe that once this stimulus money stops flowing, the economy will have a hard time sustaining the current pace of growth, 'on its own' so to speak, as the necessary jobs growth is currently lacking.

In other economic news, investors brushed aside stronger-than-anticipated initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24. Rather than the expected 525,000 initial claims, the government reported 530,000 initial claims.

In earnings-related news, Dow component Exxon Mobil missed its consensus estimate but still eked out a modest gain for the session. Meanwhile, Procter & Gamble, also a Dow component, surprised to the upside (and traded higher for the session). Colgate-Palmolive also reported positive earnings, as did Motorola in the tech sector.


  1. Nice one. I went long too right at the open as soon as I saw that there was no gap down washout. Shorted the close. This isn't the start of another rally leg imo.


  2. great post trade analysis - very importabt in my opinion as a trader. Is that gain one trade or is that a bunch of different trades through out the day - just curious because your tweets seem different