Sunday, March 3, 2013

Swing Position Wins Again




Friday 8:31am Update : Target # 6 has been filled and booked for + 46 pts. The Current Total for this Swing Trade is now : + 203.25 pts or $ 10,162.50 < Home Run and is not even completed yet !

This morning before the report the majority of traders in StockTwits were positioned Short
Those shorts along with non-participants of this rally continue to scratch their heads wondering if there will ever be a pullback.The pullback will come when the key resistance is tested above.

JaguarTrader

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Friday, March 08 - 6:30am est  Swing Position Update:  Target # 5 reached, filled and booked
for + 41 pts profits > Grand Total : + 157.25 pts

Today is NFP Day and the new contract is now June but the last trading day is ....

The most important thing to remember with today’s news is that we will ALWAYS need to wait 15-20 mins after this news is released to trade in the direction of the new short-term trend. The reason for this is because analysts have been looking at this news report for 2 weeks, the day after the last FOMC report was released analysts start watching for the NFP news. This means MOST asset-managers and well-funded traders have already ‘placed their bets’ in the direction they believe this news will be released at. This means that if this news comes out ‘as-expected’ we aren’t going to see much action because the market-personality has already priced-in the news. The bottom line is, whenever there is news that EVERYONE knows is coming, price-action will manifest itself in the direction as if the news had already been released.
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6:30am est Wednesday, March 06 Update:

Swing Position : Long @ 1507.50 , Target # 4 achieved and booked + 36.75 pts

Current Total Points Profits : +79.50 pts

JaguarTrader


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10:30am est Tuesday Update :

Position : Long 1507.50 > now + 33.75 pts, booked profits along the way at several levels

JaguarTrader


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5:00am est Tuesday Mar 05 > Swing Position Update : + 22.75 pts - Trade Setup : Bullish Inverted H & S

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Monday-Mar 4th, 6pm Swing Position Update Long from 1507.50 +20 pts booked

The Bear / Bull - Line In the Sand Zone is now : 1513.25 to 1515.50 and the First Support Zone is : 1518.75 to 1520.75

JaguarTrader

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US Stock Market history was made this week when the Dow dropped 216 points on Monday, a one day decline that engulfed the range of the prior twenty trading days.

Unless the market tanks soon on the heels of the Sequester, which was signed into law by President Obama late Friday, it will be just an interesting footnote. The market recovered and the Dow actually closed on new highs.

This wacky price action shows just how brittle this market really is. It was mostly induced by the elections in Italy, where a 76 year old scandal plagued media tycoon ( " The Clown " ) and three time former Prime Minister, 'Fohget About It' > Silvio Berlusconi, was re-elected to head his party causing a political stalemate and casting doubt on the viability of the EU. Famous for hosting "Bunga Bunga" parties and cornering the Viagra market, he topped those acts with his recent engagement to a 27 year old bombshell (not to mention his ongoing corruption trials, associating with underage prostitutes, or the fact that he is still married).

 The Italian Political landscape makes our Capital Hill look downright enlightened. In fact, a comedian who heads another populist political party that is against the austerity plan reviled by most Italians is a critical power broker, Beppe Grillo. He will highly influence if not decide who will be next Prime Minister of Italy and what happens to the Euro as well. What is good for the corrupt Berlusconi ( 'fohrget about it' ) is not good for Italy as its stock market dropped 10% from this week and clearly needs a dose of whatever Silvio ( The Clown ) is having.

The Republicans in capitol hill are still playing political games with the economy and not supporting the President in negotiating the budget.Is to be expected since they are still bitter for loosing the election and are doing what they always have done, fighting to protect the rich from higher taxes no matter what, even if it means another recession, and they have the audacity to blame the President for the lack of budget resolution !. The U.S. government stumbled headlong on Friday toward wide-ranging spending cuts that threaten to hinder the economic recovery, after President Barack Obama and congressional Republican leaders failed to support the president and find an alternative budget plan.

The market internals and sentiment indicators all point to more upside, and seasonally March and April are historically good months for the equity markets. However, the markets short term price pattern trumps all in a brittle environment and if the average American starts to see the effects of the mandatory cuts, the market will also feel its effects. We are still high on the fact that we got thru the debt ceiling crisis, so why not this one?

The ES Daily and 4 Hr Charts have formed a Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders with minimun target of 1567.25 in the March contract, this would have to be recalculated for the June contract.

Monday Mar 04 at 2:08am est > Long @ 1507.50



9 comments:

  1. Good Jag! let's see if we can mantain supp around 1500 to reach your target during March!

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  2. Very good advice , excellent points and well written Blogs and I appreciate it . Thanks

    Kevin Connell Mar 04 at 5:22pm

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  3. hi, in your earlier posts you refer to a subscription service, or a detailed trading plan for non subscribers- how can someone be a subscriber?
    please let me know- i appreciate all your teaching on stocktwits,
    jaxie

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  4. Jaxie,
    My subscribers are a private group of investors that follow my swing trades.Subscription is limited and by invitation only and there is no open slot at this time, sorry.

    JaguarTrader

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  5. =(((((( understood,thank you
    jaxie

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  6. Hi Jag, how can u tell if the direction is profit taking or an actual change of direction. Thanks always
    Eddie

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  7. Sometimes it can be discern by looking at the volume,but it also depends on the context due to the accumulation of stop loss orders above and below certain key levels.If the intitutional large players or hedge funds initiate a large position at a key level then that would be another clue

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  8. That makes sense, still hard to tell, they are making a killing with short stops. bulls have stops at 1515 and 1480, one drop they make $ both ways

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  9. miss ur commentary on st, can u poke in here and there. all eyes on 1566 spx, going to get choppy imo best to you jags

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