Thursday, September 24, 2009

Consoladation Is Expected After A Steep Vertical Down Move

The Index Low is very close to the Daily 20 MA at 1043.25. The next Objective down is the 1022 level.

Today's volume production on the S&P 500 amounted to 4,320 million shares, which is roughly in-line with the index's average daily volume output seen over the past three months.

The broad market continued to pull back today in spite of some better-than-expected jobless claims data; however, the most recent existing home sales numbers were disappointing.

Furthermore, a strong rebound in the US dollar also pressured stocks.Today's economic news shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19 had fallen to their lowest level in two months (current total: 550,000). Furthermore, continuing claims also came in better than expected (6.14 million rather than 6.18 million). While this news was encouraging (notwithstanding the fact that claims numbers remain at uncomfortably high levels), the release of the latest existing home sales data was likely a disappointment for investors. The newest numbers show a 2.7% decline in new home sales in August, representing the first pullback in existing home sales data since March.

In notable tech earnings news, Research in Motion (RIMM), the maker of the popular BlackBerry, reported disappointing earnings after the close today. The company said that fiscal second-quarter profits were off and that revenue for the current quarter would also fall below the expectations of Wall Street analysts. The company's shares tumbled more than 10% in after-hours trading. Earnings were in part impacted by a patent settlement payment; revenues increased from 2.5 8 billion to 3.5 3 billion, but profits per share were down. According to one of the company's co-CEOs, RIMM expects to ship more than 9 million new phones in the current quarter. The company believes its market share of the US smart phone market was about 55% in mid-June (six months earlier, RIMM's market share was about 40%).

Other notable tech earnings came from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). The company anticipates that it will generate revenue and profit targets in its next fiscal year that are roughly in-line with analysts' expectations. HPQ believes that the personal computer market (which accounts for nearly a third of the company's sales), which has suffered a significant slump during this recession, is now starting to improve. In contrast, the company's printer ink division is seeing less of a jump in demand.

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