Weekly Swing Trade Review

 

 Here is how the Swing Trade developed during the week, there were many clues on Wednesday that

turn out to be correct and there was a second great Long Entry on Friday before the 9:30am est Open

 

Have a Great Weekend and See You at the Beach ! 

Thanksgivings Holiday at Lake Tahoe

Away from the Markets , skiing in the ultimate location with a breathtaking view.

Looks like the last Wed TTT Sell Short day with the RSI ( 2 ) at 98 on Thursday was a great Sell Setup in the ES. Hope you got in on that trade Bela from Budapest ! if not then , ' Which way is Austria ? ' ! LOL

Wishing all my faithfull followers a cheerfull and happy Thanksgivings !

Jaguar Trader

New Swing Trade and Updates

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Thursday - March 21 Swing Trade Update : SHORT ZBM13 ( T-Bonds ) at 143.29 > Final target reached and nailed for :
 + 43 ticks or $ 1,343.75 per contract traded. Indicator Signals works again

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10:30am est Update : The Short position is a winner : + 31 ticks or Full Point > + $968.75 GAIN


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9:00pm est > T-Bonds ( 30yr ) Futures- June Contract ( ZBM13 ) : SOLD 143.29
This is a very rare opportunity with high probability setup, will add if it goes higher.


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1:30 pm Update : Target # 3 has been reached and booked, for + 25 pts added to the previous Gains. Short Position from 1557 is working as planned.Congratulations is in order for those private subscribers that took the trade with faith and conviction.

An interesting note is that most StockTwits $ES_F traders did NOT see the reversal coming and/or ignored the WARNING posted on this Blog due to their incompetence, arrogance or just plain lack of knowledge.

Tue - Mar 19 Swing Trade Update : SHORT @ 1557 > see below

Well, what do you know, the expected D-Day developed into a continuation of the downtrend to my surprise and delight. The Day Trading Plan is also working as expected.

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Tuesday, March 19 : ES Key Levels and Trade Plan :

Markets should be somewhat rotation inside yest value area. FOMC meeting starts - ECON calendar is very light. Markets all contained within yesterdays value area overnight - YM came down and tagged 360 last weeks POC

The Key Bull / Bear Zone : 1543.50 - 1545.50 . If this zone doesn't hold then the next significant Zone is  from 1539 - 1541. Above there is 1550.75 - 1552.75 with 1555.75 as the Key Resistance above that zone. It should be a D - Day with no directional trend today , waiting for the FED, unless some unexpected EU news hits the wire.
 

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WARNING of Eminent Market Top was given on this Blog > Wed, March 13 :


SHORT Position from 1557 was initiated on Friday , Mar 15 at 8:58am est.

Trade Setup :      > Bearish Head and Shoulders Formation
                              > VIX Count
                              > MACD Bearish Divergence
                              > Daily Doji at Key Institutional Level
                              > Cycle Indicator Overbought
                                >    RSI ( 2 ) Overbought Reading at Key Resistance
                              > Other Clues as adviced to subscribers

The Bull / Bear Zone : 1549 - 1546

The Market has GAP down 20.50 pts during Globex, the min target is available upon request.You must be a long term follower of this Blog and write an opinion or comment about this trade in StockTwits,thank you for your cooperation.

JaguarTrader

Swing Trade Final Target and Updates

Friday, March 15- 2:40am > Update : Long @ 1544.25 > booked profits : + 14.50 pts plus previous position Total : + 21.50

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10:25am est Update : Market action dictated a change in bias by way of price action clues
and the Short Position was reversed to Long @ 1544.25 as adviced to private subscribers, no StockTwits notice due to the activity of too many ' Incompetent Gurus for a Fee ' .

Long position will be maintained as long as the key level  > 1545.50 is not violated.

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9:15am est >  If bulls can't get new highs on retail sales number the technical picture will start favoring the Bear side.....


Wednesday, March 13 > 9:16pm Globex Session ( Tue Night ) > SOLD 1549.50
Setup : FLAT Top , MACD Bearish Divergence and other Clues as indicated to subscribers.Stay Tune....Booked + 7 pts and reversed to Long.

WARNING : IMPORTANT MARKET TOP WITHIN 2 WEEKS !

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2:30pm - Swing Trade Update : Long @ 1507.50 > Setup as explain to subscribers.To no-subscribers the Inverted H&S Bullish Formation was one of the clues.

Target # 7 has been reached and filled or booked for another + 48.25 pts profits in the March Contract. Will have to liquidate the position due to the expiration of the contract.

The Total Points Final GAIN for this Swing Trade : 251.50 pts or $ 12,575 for all targets.

JaguarTrader

Swing Position Wins Again

Friday 8:31am Update : Target # 6 has been filled and booked for + 46 pts. The Current Total for this Swing Trade is now : + 203.25 pts or $ 10,162.50 < Home Run and is not even completed yet !

This morning before the report the majority of traders in StockTwits were positioned Short
Those shorts along with non-participants of this rally continue to scratch their heads wondering if there will ever be a pullback.The pullback will come when the key resistance is tested above.

JaguarTrader

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Friday, March 08 - 6:30am est  Swing Position Update:  Target # 5 reached, filled and booked
for + 41 pts profits > Grand Total : + 157.25 pts

Today is NFP Day and the new contract is now June but the last trading day is ....

The most important thing to remember with today’s news is that we will ALWAYS need to wait 15-20 mins after this news is released to trade in the direction of the new short-term trend. The reason for this is because analysts have been looking at this news report for 2 weeks, the day after the last FOMC report was released analysts start watching for the NFP news. This means MOST asset-managers and well-funded traders have already ‘placed their bets’ in the direction they believe this news will be released at. This means that if this news comes out ‘as-expected’ we aren’t going to see much action because the market-personality has already priced-in the news. The bottom line is, whenever there is news that EVERYONE knows is coming, price-action will manifest itself in the direction as if the news had already been released.

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6:30am est Wednesday, March 06 Update:

Swing Position : Long @ 1507.50 , Target # 4 achieved and booked + 36.75 pts

Current Total Points Profits : +79.50 pts

JaguarTrader


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10:30am est Tuesday Update :

Position : Long 1507.50 > now + 33.75 pts, booked profits along the way at several levels

JaguarTrader


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5:00am est Tuesday Mar 05 > Swing Position Update : + 22.75 pts - Trade Setup : Bullish Inverted H & S

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Monday-Mar 4th, 6pm Swing Position Update :  Long from 1507.50 +20 pts booked

The Bear / Bull - Line In the Sand Zone is now : 1513.25 to 1515.50 and the First Support Zone is : 1518.75 to 1520.75

JaguarTrader

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US Stock Market history was made this week when the Dow dropped 216 points on Monday, a one day decline that engulfed the range of the prior twenty trading days.

Unless the market tanks soon on the heels of the Sequester, which was signed into law by President Obama late Friday, it will be just an interesting footnote. The market recovered and the Dow actually closed on new highs.

This wacky price action shows just how brittle this market really is. It was mostly induced by the elections in Italy, where a 76 year old scandal plagued media tycoon ( " The Clown " ) and three time former Prime Minister, 'Fohget About It' > Silvio Berlusconi, was re-elected to head his party causing a political stalemate and casting doubt on the viability of the EU. Famous for hosting "Bunga Bunga" parties and cornering the Viagra market, he topped those acts with his recent engagement to a 27 year old bombshell (not to mention his ongoing corruption trials, associating with underage prostitutes, or the fact that he is still married).

 The Italian Political landscape makes our Capital Hill look downright enlightened. In fact, a comedian who heads another populist political party that is against the austerity plan reviled by most Italians is a critical power broker, Beppe Grillo. He will highly influence if not decide who will be next Prime Minister of Italy and what happens to the Euro as well. What is good for the corrupt Berlusconi ( 'fohrget about it' ) is not good for Italy as its stock market dropped 10% from this week and clearly needs a dose of whatever Silvio ( The Clown ) is having.

The Republicans in capitol hill are still playing political games with the economy and not supporting the President in negotiating the budget.Is to be expected since they are still bitter for loosing the election and are doing what they always have done, fighting to protect the rich from higher taxes no matter what, even if it means another recession, and they have the audacity to blame the President for the lack of budget resolution !. The U.S. government stumbled headlong on Friday toward wide-ranging spending cuts that threaten to hinder the economic recovery, after President Barack Obama and congressional Republican leaders failed to support the president and find an alternative budget plan.

The market internals and sentiment indicators all point to more upside, and seasonally March and April are historically good months for the equity markets. However, the markets short term price pattern trumps all in a brittle environment and if the average American starts to see the effects of the mandatory cuts, the market will also feel its effects. We are still high on the fact that we got thru the debt ceiling crisis, so why not this one?

The ES Daily and 4 Hr Charts have formed a Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders with minimun target of 1567.25 in the March contract, this would have to be recalculated for the June contract.

Monday Mar 04 at 2:08am est > Long @ 1507.50

Market Status and Projections

4:10pm est > Position Update : As expected Sunday the ES has confirmed a Bearish Head and Shoulder Formation announced one day before,

The Setup worked again: Targets 1, 2 and 3 filled and booked, last target available upon request.

Short from 1524.25 + 39 pts < Open Profits.

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After droping below the 10 Day Moving Average on Wed Feb 20 and below the 20 Day MA on Thursday , and breaking the long term channel trend line , the ES found support at the CHVN Key Zone. The Day # 2 RSI( 2 ) Reading became very low and the VIX Count was at reversal level, then the Third Day BUY Signal was given on Friday to subscribers.

It was a winner again hitting all Targets on the way up. Of course if you have been following this Blog for a long time, you probably would have anticipated this High Probability Setup that has been discussed on this Blog many times before without having to be a subscriber.Eddie take note.

As you recall on the previous Sunday Feb 10 a very subtle , simple but accurate statement was posted
on this Blog : " The TRUE correction will most likely occur after the > FOMC Minutes Meeting on Wed Feb 20th " < and that is exactly what transpired.
Amazingly enough there was only one very keen person that noticed it or acknowledged it in StockTwits <


Projections : The ES has traded below the Daily channel established since the unfilled GAP on January 20 . What is expected is a retrace back up to the 61.8% at 1516.50 < Weekly Pivot.

It is possible it will start to form a Bearish Head and Shoulder Formation by testing between : 1522.50 and 1524.50 Key  Sell Zone < This scenario would be invalidated IF price action consolidates above this Zone. Then the 1530 weekly High will probably be tested and exceeded. Key Support : 1519.50 < Institutional Level and 1508.75 to 1512

If the key Support Zone does not hold then the H & S theory goes into effect and a bearish bias should be considered

Note that I don't predict what will happen nor am I firm in my view or wording. I expect certain behaviors in price action but failure to comply is an indication also. Will change opinion instantly. Market is the master .Think of trading like surfing. You can't create the wave. You can only  read and interpret what is coming & try to ride it using your personal skills, methods and tolerance for risk.
 

There is no right or wrong answer & someone else's method is not likely to suit your skills, risk tolerance and style. In my opinion: It is best to understand the auction process & what motivates players to trade. Then master a few tools. Limit risk. Trade with less stress and more conviction.
 

Continuously changing your method puts you back in middle of learning curve over & over. It may cause frustration , doubt & little progress.

Notice: Trading Futures involves substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for all investors. Comments on this Blog are not trade recommendations.

 

Your priorities: 1) Risk control and exercise mental disciplined, 2) Think and practice your plan thru before the open, 3) Trade & move on! don't judge your skills by a few losses.

 

You career as trader is determined by performance of large set of trades. Not the last trade or 2. Risk control keeps you in game and NEVER ever pay a fee or follow the advice of StockTwits GURUS teaching for a fee, especially when they don't post live trades or order entries ahead of price action, because their levels or " Zones " are very subjective and NOT proven with live trades.There are many people doing this in StockTwits and there is no accountability or regulation.

 The best and most effective way to learn this is NOT to pay someone else to teach you, but to do your own research , follow the price action and push yourself to find the clues of the market you are trying to master.

 

Jaguar Trader a.k.a Trader TopGun
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America BEWARE :  One Nation Under > China
http://finance.moneyandmarkets.com/reports/event/rwr/one-nation-49.php?ccode=&em=&sc=WWIZAR&ec=5434144

The Next Market Correction

Of course a market correction is inevitable. The market can't go up forever. Everyone knows that. Still market tops always seem to "surprise" traders and investors. Yet, you probably learned in kindergarten how to avoid getting caught at the top. Remember the game of musical chairs? You needed to go with the flow, but listen closely to the music ( clues )

Unfortunately, for most traders "going with the flow" without listening to the market clues is all too often the real reason why a market's correction is not understood and accepted by most traders until it is too late to have sold at the top. This leaves most traders surprised and wondering why they didn't see the top coming. This is the process that "Mr. Market" has perfected in order to hurt as many traders as possible at each turning point.

The irony in this is that the market often does warn traders of which financial or economic headwinds might cause the next "surprise" correction well in advance of the significant market declines. But tops happen when too many traders aren't listening. And just like that game you learned in kindergarten, Musical Chairs, the traders who aren't listening closely enough to the market are the ones left standing with losses when the bull market's music stops.

I think if you polled traders in the U.S. you would find that most would agree that the financial problems in Europe are not over. But if your follow up question asked if Europe's problems were still our problem, the majority would likely answer "no". I'll admit that prior to this week I would not have ranked Europe's problems as high on my list of concerns for our market. But I've changed my mind.

The market has enjoyed a run up thus far this year that is literally worthy of the record books. In doing so, traders have focused on positive earnings reports and brushed off mediocre economic data as good enough to justify the move higher. Who am I to argue? The market knows best. However, the market also warns us of its strengths and weaknesses. And this week the market had its worst down day of the year. I'd bet that most traders have already forgotten about this day because the following days easily erased the losses and moved even higher.

Listen to the market. The forgotten down day (the biggest down day of the year) was a result of fears over Europe's financial condition. Europe's problems are not over, and if you believe that the market knows best, then there is still a risk that Europe may create problems for our markets.

I'm not interested in drumming up fear, screaming "fire", or predicting the inevitable correction will be brought on by Europe, but when the market leaves clues like this, I go looking for ways to be more attentive to important market weaknesses and price action hidden clues. This way, I can continue to follow the flow of the market but should Europe begin to develop into a "surprise" I will have seen it coming, and avoid being that last trader standing in the market's game of musical chairs.

There are two scenarios that will probably play out this coming week. First one is that there will be a GAP Down on Monday < TTT Sell Day and will most likely close the open Gap between 1506 and 1508 and find support at 1502 to 1501 or > Second Scenario : The  ES will go up to the  1517 to 1519.75 Zone and encounter resistance there follow by a correction to the Gap Zone.The TRUE correction will most likely occur after the > FOMC Minutes Meeting on Wed Feb 20th.