Sunday, November 21, 2010

Options Exp. Friday Nov 19-Price Action Review

Yesterday,Thursday -the ES pushed above 1194 resistance on the Phili Fed report that surprised to the upside, but the market could not quite crack the 1200 level, including overnight. The move down shortly after Bernanke’s QE2 support speech at 5:15 am this morning was on news that China raised its bank reserve ratio.

The timing suggests it intends to counteract QE2 contagion with such offsetting sterilization efforts. It will be important to monitor its effect on risk markets going forward. On the Ireland front, no major developments overnight. The 1202 remains critical resistance for the Bears to defend, and they have seasonality on their side for a few more days.There is a Low Volume Gap from from 1187.50 to 1182 that will probably be filled before this market heads north to new highs. It may go lower than 1181 but it will find a lot of buyers waiting between 1180 and  1176.25.

It was a day of consolidation both overnight and during the RTH. A day where the 1201 Res area was not tested although the sup at 1193 was erased. This is somewhat bearish, therefore will  monitor 1201 as the Bulls should take that out early next week ( probably during Sunday Globex Session) if they are for real. Otherwise looking for a test of 1192.50 again and then a test of 1188 and 1182. If 1201 is penetrated the next one is 1206.

The typical pattern on options expiration day, is for a down move in the first hour with some continued weakness into the early afternoon, followed by a rally in the final hour. This does not happen every single opex day, but it’s important to take note of strong tendencies.There is another more reliable tendency for a down day after Options Exp. sometimes withing two days.

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