Saturday, January 16, 2010

Review of CPI Report Day

Short from 1142.50 on Intraday Setup. Expecting this market to go down further.
Analysis Details available upon request.
Thursday,Jan 21:
Short from 1142.50 and 1146. Today's Low was 1110.25.
Analysis worked as expected and Vix Count was one of the clues that this market was going to break down. Position is open with a gain of
+ 35.75 points per contract.
Friday, Jan 22:
Short from 1146. Today's low was 1086.25.
One position closed at 1088 for + 54.50 pts profits
Monday, Jan 25 :
Short from 1146 on the last position. Today's low was 1089.75 and it was an NR6 Day and an Inside Day. The low was broken down during the after market Globex session.
The new low is now 1082, down on news out of Asia. This gap down will be closed tomorrow in the day session. At 11: 41pm est the last position was closed at 1082.25 for + 63.75 pts profits
There is a double Bullish divergence in the 60min MACD as the market has come back down to retest 1082 to make a double bottom.
Need to see the rating from a least 6 people, otherwise this is going to be the last post.
This is last post on this Blog.


  1. Hi there,

    I enjoy your blog..good fun to read and well written...

    Are you going to comment about Friday's action?


  2. Brilliant set of trades...might be concidence,but your closing number was exactly the same as stochastic 3,14 5 pip range...

    When going long are you looking for a 1106 and/or 1114 retest?

    I sent a msg yesterday, suggesting to do not quit as I have attempted to introduce some people to your blog...I guess you did not receive it!!

    I am useless when it comes to this stuff!!!

    Just found out how I screwed did you get on with the FX comp "rigging".


  3. The Bullish 60min MACD Divergence worked like a champ. In the GLOBEX session, the ES made a lower low of 1081 at the key Weekly support Zone.
    ( 1080 to 1082 ). If you notice the high volume peak at the first time it hit 1082, then when it came back to retest at 01:25am, it turned into a holding sideways pattern with very low volume.That was the clue that it found a bottom in the Globex session making an inverted Bullish Head and Shoulders.Later on the Gap was filled as predicted at 08:10am, coming up to within .50 points of the Prev Close.

    David, thanks for your effort.In reference to the Forex Competition "rigging". If you read the Skype Dialogue, you will quickly notice how Mr Mark McRae qualified the winning Trader and proceded to the next phase of the verification process, which was supposed to be the live verification using the other Program.As you continue reading, it turned into a very suspicious and frustrating process where by the simple Ninja Reports became invalid for Mr Adrian Jones-director.It is very odvious that he was looking for an excuse to disqualify the winner.This can happen to anyone with this crooked people from Surefire Trading Challenge in South Africa.

    If going long from this level in the ES, the first logical target is the Downtrend Line confluence with the Prev Close at 1092.50.The 1106.50 is the last Friday POC, but the market usually stops at the Prev VAL before it continues higher.Hope htis answers your questions.Not going long yet until I see some consolidation days after FED Day.

  4. Previous Post:Monday Jan 25 11:41pm " This Gap down will be closed tomorrow i the day session "...
    As you can see the market closed the Gap and consolidated around the Prev Close to VAL Zone before it moved higher.This is why my Short position was liquidated during the Globex session.The divergence was the clue to take profits ( take the money and run ).The other clue was the 30yr T-bonds Futures that was due to a pullback down.

  5. 30 years experience or 30 years old?...I would say the former as is evident from your ditty with the oldie at the bar in Midtown in October .Great and very true story, in my opinion.

    I am of a slightly younger ilk clerk then operator on the floor in Sydney, before computers.

    It is a very dreary morning in Lake Worth ,so I read a chunk of your blog from the beginning and came to the obvious conclusion that you know what you are about and have a very good handle on trading per Se...

    It is not what you say, but how you say it that caught my attention.

    I came across your blog by sheer accident as I saw a reference to the rigged competition on a forum that I browse from time to time.

    I think I have a handle on your trading method.

    The reason I started reading your blog was to determine "why" you hit the left a tick on the also the 1142.50 entry,but that was not enough...why you bailed out at 1182, whereas I thought you could have taken the 1181 .....AAAHHHH!!!

    Your explanation was very useful, however I am a technological retard , therefore I had to find out what you meant and how you applied it....the vix I understand.

    The MACD ...I cannot get a handle on it, however I did find something that could be of interest to you.Personally, I don't trust it.

    Daily WCCI 45,6...+200 overbought -200 it coincidence? Incidentally, I white out the noise and the picture was very clear.

    In my opinion, WCCI is not a consistent indicator for intra day trading.

    I have a pile of questions I would like to ask you, but the most pressing are probably the simplest...what does VAL, DVAL and HVAL stand for and how is it different from POC?

    One other thing if I may...should you dump this blog is there a possibilty we may exchange e-mail addresses...I will be happy to send you mine to establish contact.. back to some more beach today...


    P.S I am still a pencil and paper trader...

  6. David,

    Will try to answer some of your questions:

    The Point of Control (POC), Value Area High
    (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL). These are Market Profile terminology.

    "to determine "why" you hit the 1146..."

    On Friday Jan, 15 SOLD 1142.50 that was the POC for the previous day.At 9:30am the 5min chart shows a Bearish Pin Bar Reversal.The Day Session High (HOD)was 1144 and the Globex ( Pre Market) High was 1147.25.

    David, if you notice the 60min ES chart, when the market reversed at 1148 on Mondy-Jan 11, it traded down to 1127.75 very close to the previous support at 1127. That was the third time it did that !. First clue was established.

    Then the market (ES) went back up to 1147 again on Thursday,Jan 14 (at 4:30 pm).

    So the following day Jan 15,Friday. I was expecting that 1147 to be at least tested if not exceeded.What does the market do? At 9:30am N.Y. Open it goes down again on very high volume.So what is the most logical and common sense ( no rocket science) thing to expect next?

    A retest of 1127 ! AND in fact the LOD was guess what? 1127.50 ! For the fourth time in the 60min chart.

    So the market action during after hours GLOBEX, the market goes down to 1127 again but it makes a dramatic high volume reversal at 1126.25 on Tuesday,Jan 19.So, on the 9:30 open , you would expect that low to be broken but instead the market goes vertical UP to 1147 again, for the third time ! In Globex session I placed a Sell order at 1146 near the 1146.75 VAH from the previous day and got filled.

    Why did I think that the 1147 resistance would not be broken? One clue was the VIX , the other was the 30yr Bond Futures and there were other additional clues like the EURJPY and COT among others.

    On Jan 20, the HOD was 1138.50 and the Globex High was 1146.50 only half a point form my SHORT position.

    "why you bailed out at 1182, whereas I thought you could have taken the 1181 .....AAAHHHH!!!"

    David, if you look at the MACD ( 3,10,1) on that day, it was making a Double Bullish Divergence
    ( Jan 26 ).Sure enough the market went up to 1100 on that day.The Globex low was 1181!
    (lol), and it is very difficult to impossible to get a filled
    during Globex low valume.

    "should you dump this blog is there a possibilty we may exchange e-mail addresses...I will be happy to send you mine to establish contact.."

    I am waiting for the minimun rating responce to the last "CPI Review" , need at leat 6 ratings
    ( 4 more ) to stimulate the continuation of additional posts.Otherwise it does not make sense to post for only two people.

  7. Thankyou for your responses...

    Although there may be different ways to skin a cat, my idea as to how you achieved your results were completely different to your explanation.

    I will follow through with how you did it in order that I get a better understanding of the current trading enviroment from you other than what I have perceived.I am always willing to learn something new.

    My comments, like "missing by a tick", are tongue in cheek relevant to the situation, and are not intended to offend.

    Had a good day myself just cracked a 10 pointer as I write . My system and trading stategy is simple...

    look forward to seeing where you anticipate the next high probability trade exists..


  8. Miss your posts. Just inept as response function. With luck with will go through