Saturday, January 14, 2012

Friday The 13th - Bad OMEN for the ES Market

The broad market declined on Friday. The strongest decline was noted on the Russell 2000 (0.77% loss) while NASDAQ 100 lost only 0.42%. The NASDAQ 100 index closed down 0.42%; the S&P 500 dropped 0.49% while the Dow lossed 0.39%. For the week, the NASDAQ 100 is currently showing a gain of 0.67%; the S&P 500 has gained 0.88% while the Dow is presently up 0.5%.


Volume for the S&P 500 was 2,630 million shares today, 7% less that the average daily volume of the past 3 months.

In previous short-term outlook, I had suggested: " Negative money flow would suggest the possibility of negative trading tomorrow after the market open. ... Overall I would consider the outlook for tomorrow slightly in favor of the Bulls.

 However, sentiment could be easily turned into bearish and if my indicator starts to decline on the 30-day chart I will consider it as a signal for bearish trading session" - Then the indexes moved down at the market open, and then a short covering vertical move in the last hour but more down is expected as the 30-day chart started to decline.

Equities have been shrugging bad news coming out of Europe and slowly and steadily creeping up. In the past few days markets have generally fallen at the open, but then slowly regained its footing by the end of the day.

All this indicates that the equity market is complacent and confident that prices will rise. But in a different corner of the market, where the big boys play, traders and investors are getting risk averse. The US treasury market and the US Dollar are giving signals that the risky play of equities may be off the table.

 On Friday the 10-year US treasury bond prices made a new high  and the Dollar index broke a key resistance level. The US Dollar and treasuries are considered safe places to invest when the equity market is falling.

But the US treasury and dollar market have been steadily moving up for the past few days even as the equity markets continued to rally. A rallying of safe havens and equities simultaneously is pretty unusual.

Notice that both the Dollar and treasuries rallied high on Friday but sold off. The dollar index is back in it's resistance zone and the 10-year treasuries did come back below its previous all time high.

If both these markets close above Friday's highs next week and continue higher we could see a sell off in equities. There are however a few factors that are not in favor of the equity bears. Gold the other safe haven is not rallying with any kind of strength. The other factor is that both the US dollar, treasuries and equities have been going up in tandem over the past few days. This does not ussually happens and completely skews the risk-safe haven inter-play, leaving technical analysts scratching their heads.



Consumer sentiment hit an eight-month high in early January as Americans grew more optimistic about job prospects, a survey released on Friday showed.


The economy could improve one to two years earlier than it otherwise would if the Federal Reserve behaves "very aggressively," including possibly making additional asset purchases, a top Fed official said on Friday.Giving President Obama another victory in the upcoming elections.

In politics , Newt Gingrich visited a Cuban Restaurant in South Florida,looking for money donations to safe his dwindling useless political campaing. Apparently some rich wealthy Cuban Americans think that this old, hippocrite and fat conservative candidate is going to help them re-establish the failed Cuban Embargo even when the majority of exiles no longer support that idea.They don't realize that Newt Gingrich is ignoring the Black African American's voters in South Florida and he will eventually loose against Obama.We all know that 99% of blacks will re-elect Obama again.

The Federal Reserve should not ease monetary policy further because that would lead to higher inflation without additional economic growth, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Friday.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is considering ways to ease or tailor regulations impacting community banks, such as commercial real estate standards, as a way to boost their lending, a top Fed official said on Friday.

Import prices edged down in December as oil prices fell after a November surge, according to a government report on Friday that showed inflation pressures still muted.

Observations : It is amazing how a few mediocre trading GURUS are selling support and resistance levels to the unaware and unimformed inexperienced new traders when these information can be obtained easily from many free sources and by looking at the charts , especially when these so called experts never show a live trade using their levels.A Twitter posted trade is NOT a live trade !- Mediocre traders ( Riskcap, FT71 and others ) selling information that is NOT unique without showing live trading proof.And the fools keep paying them !

Monday, December 26, 2011

Day After Christmas

We had a lot fun Swing Trading and Day Trading all the High Probability Setups during 2011, thank you for you loyal support.You know who you are.

The best gift of all is your trust and the profits made on those trades.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Time to stop Diving and Head for the Mountains

Back from a long scuba diving exotic adventure trip while trading across the globe. Now is time for some high mountain skiing in Austria.

Wishing all my followers and private investors a very wonderfull, unique and exciting

holidays. May you eat well and drink fine quality spirits with your loved ones and forget your worries for a few days !Cheers !and happy christmas !

Monday, November 14, 2011

Veterans Deserve Better

Many of you may remember that Veterans Day was originally commemorated by our nation as “Armistace Day”, a celebration of the cessation of hostilities after the first ‘Great War’. It was a day set aside to remember the horrors of those war years in an effort to nourish the hope that governments could find more civil ways of resolving their differences. It wasn’t until well after the end of WWII that we modified that commemoration to honor all of the veterans of all of America’s wars.


These days the horrors of war often go unrecognized by many civilians. It is only through the experiences of our veterans and their families that the timeless agonies of war are experienced and remembered.

 Except for the financial expenditures (which are astronomical), civilians rarely share in the ‘cost’ of going to war anymore.  Yet, it is precisely those costs that are fueling our current national debt difficulties. The fiscal problems that the United States  is  currently experiencing are due largely to the fact that the debt for those unfunded wars is coming due at a time when the economy is still suffering the consequences of the economic collapse of 2008.

I find it outrageous that, after invading Iraq and Afghanistan for 10 years on borrowed money, we are now trying to pay for it by reneging on the insurance policies that great and honest Americans have created and paid for called Medicare and Social Security.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

The Bullshit Continues in Wall Street



This is another undisputed evidence that Occupy Wall Street protesters are right about the corruption and outright fraud going on for decades in the Financial Markets.
MF Global Senior Vice President Mark B. Sachs sent me a letter on Sept 23,2011 with an offer to open a new self-directed account, but never mentioned the fact that their financial status was weak ! Never included or discloused on the invitation letter.That is the kind of deceiving and misleading marketing going on in the US Brokerage business ! and this has been going on for decades. New traders BEWARE !

MF Global Holdings Ltd failed to protect customer accounts by keeping them separate from its own funds, said a top U.S. exchange regulator, another shock for commodity markets scrambling to contain fallout from the brokerage's bankruptcy.


The New York Times reported late on Monday that federal regulators discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money -- supposed to be segregated and protected from the rest of the business -- had gone missing. MF Global has caused the markets and all of their traders lots of heartburn and unessesary stress.

Can somebody help me understand how the CME clearing house is not backing up their members (traders and brokers) who had their accounts frozen and maybe destroyed ? Isn’t that the role of an Exchange to protect it’s membership ? I don’t get it, if the CME guarantees a members segregated account- how can it NOT be ultimately responsible? Another example of the regulators being asleep at the switch..!!!!!!!!!


How about we get this right ,first thing I keep reading that Jon Corzine destroyed his firm
it wasn’t his firm and wasn’t his personal piggy bank. I think this guy had a gambling problem only with other people money and the US Regulators never bother to monitor him!.

How does someone loose a avg of 2 billion dollars a month as CEO? Goldman gave him the boot years ago and so did the people of New Jersey ! for being a loser and why would anyone hire a guy with a track record like his.This is the massive bullshit going on in Wall Street for many years. He needs to spend some time in jail along side Bernard Madoff, Mr Corzine has destroyed the trust of so many people !

Also shows for all the millions of taxpayer dollars spent running the SEC and the CFTC, they are basically worthless corrupted agencies. Do they ever spot anything ahead of time when they could actually do something about it? ! The US still does’nt have any regulations in place to stop this theft. When are they going to start acting and stop condoning this sort of behaviour.

America WAKE UP !

Insight: MF Global clients face day of reckoning as margins call

Call it the mother of all margin calls: Up to 50,000 former customers of bankrupt broker MF Global must find Approx $1 billion in additional collateral almost overnight, or be forced out of their trades.

Come Friday, with the mass transfer of commodity trading accounts from Jon Corzine's fallen firm to six of its erstwhile rivals, margin clerks will be wrapping up a reckoning of how much additional money is needed to cover millions of positions. Clients who can't quickly meet their margin will have to liquidate, making for a tumultuous day's trade.


A court order to move the trades late on Wednesday brought only marginal relief to clients who have been essentially frozen out of their funds and positions since Friday. While accounts will now be transferred more quickly, only 60 percent of the collateral will be moved to the new brokers.
























Friday, October 7, 2011

Payroll Report ( NFP ) - Day Review

Trade Plan worked as expected, gap UP was faded and the 3 clues for trading the Nonfarm Payrolls worked like a champ.

Back to the states after a long journey to many islands destinations, scuba diving in the warm tropical blue oceans, while day trading the market.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Overcoming Great Adversity and Finding Your Niche Early in Life

This incredible lucky adopted child was not a software engineer or an electrical expert but his mental ability to overcome great adversity, obstacles , focus on his dreams and then excell to an amazing degree with the help of his engineer friend, is what we should all learn to admire from his life. He was the biological son of a Muslim from Syria and an American young college graduate woman.

He was odviously rejected by his mother, never contacted by his real Muslim father, rejected by the Corporate " experts " at Apple Inc , which he founded and he never had an adequate or impressive academic background ! His adopted parents were low income working class folks that never went to college !Odviously he had social intelligence.

This was the life of a persistent optimist with an incredible luck and spirit of success :


I wanted to pass this speech on to you today that Steve Jobs gave. It is truly inpiring and touched me when I first read it and hope that it will you also. I really thought that his legacy was overrated and that he was only another lucky entreperneur that gave us a portable hand held mini-computer, something that many other qualified experts thought about doing, but never produced.But I was right on :

'You've got to find what you love,' Jobs said,( comm'on Steve, we all do but not with your luck ! )

This is a prepared text of the Commencement address delivered by Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Computer and of Pixar Animation Studios, on June 12, 2005.

I am honored to be with you today at your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. I never graduated from college. Truth be told, this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories.

The first story is about connecting the dots.


I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out?


It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course." My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college.

And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six months, I couldn't see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out. And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me, and begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting.


It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5¢ deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one example:



Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating.



None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts. And since Windows just copied the Mac, it's likely that no personal computer would have them. If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do. Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college. But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later.

Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.


My second story is about love and loss.


I was lucky — I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz ( the engineer ) and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4000 employees. We had just released our finest creation — the Macintosh — a year earlier, and I had just turned 30. And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our Board of Directors sided with him. So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating.



I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down - that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me — I still loved what I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over.


I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.

During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife. Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful animation studio in the world. In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT, I returned to Apple, and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance. And Laurene and I have a wonderful family together.


I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.


My third story is about death.


When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.

Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.



About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor's code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.



I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and I'm fine now.


This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope it's the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept:

No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.


Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.



When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the late 1960's, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and polaroid cameras. It was sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great notions.



Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue. It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age. On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous. Beneath it were the words: "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. And I have always wished that for myself. And now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.


Thank you all very much.

Steve Jobs , 1955 - 2011 ,  R. I. P.