Today's Volume in the E-Mini ES was 28% less than yesterday.
At this time in the Globex Session price action is testing the Prev Low as the Dollar Index is breaking out above Previous High. SHORT Swing position is working as planned.
Yesterday's Overview:
It was a day of reversals. The market started weak, but gained considerable ground which allowed it to close green. However, after the bell, Cisco came out with a poor earnings report which fell well short of Wall Street's projected sales and profit targets, taking Cisco stock some 12% lower in after-hours trading (and pressuring futures readings as well). Acting as a technology sector bellwether, this poor report by the sixth-largest US technology company (by its market value) weighed on the market today.
Adding to yesterday's positive mood were some encouraging economic data releases. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 6 were down 24,000 week-over-week, coming in at a total of 435,000 new claims (consensus estimate: 450,000 initial claims). A downward push was also seen for continuing claims: these came in at 4.30 million (prior reading: 4.39 million continuing claims).
September's US trade deficit totaled $44 billion (consensus estimate: a $44.8 billion deficit; August's reading: $46.5 billion). October's Treasury budget showed a deficit of $140.4 billion (consensus estimate; a deficit of $140 billion).
Markets were looking ahead to the G20 meeting on today and Friday to be held in South Korea. The announcement of the US Federal Reserve's second quantitative easing program has resulted in significant international criticism from China, Germany, as well as other countries. As discussed some of the fears yesterday. One major concern is the foreign exchange market, with countries fearing the US is deliberately attempting to push the US dollar lower to aid the export sector. It is anticipated that QE2 will be a major, contentious topic of discussion at the upcoming meeting.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Swing Trade from last Friday-Update
Short from 1222.50 Friday Nov 05 and from 1224.50 today.Now in profits : + 16.5 Pts and + 18.5 Pts.
Targets as specified and according to price action.
Wed, Nov 10 Update :
So far, the scenario laid out in my Blog Post from Sunday is playing out pretty well
First target reached at 1202 for + 22.50Pts of Real Live Trade Profits ALL ENTRIES AND EXITS POSTED LIVE ON THE STOCKTWITS FEED
Trade Setup Today :
Intraday 5min Bearish Engulfing Pin Bar at Key Resistance Level on Lower Volume
US Dollar breakout above Prev High and UPCross of Prev Close at 11:10am est
Breakdown below Key Institutional Level : 1218.50 on the Third Hour ( as submitted to Investor Group )
Weak Internals : Financials and the Four Horseman
MACD Bearish Divergence
RSI ( 2 ) Reading : 100- Two Consec. Days
Key Reversal Dates Window
TTT -Sell Short Day : worked like a champ !
Today : Bearish Outside Day and Closed below Friday's Low as expected in Trade Plan
Will Update on this Post. Stay Tune.
Targets as specified and according to price action.
Wed, Nov 10 Update :
So far, the scenario laid out in my Blog Post from Sunday is playing out pretty well
First target reached at 1202 for + 22.50Pts of Real Live Trade Profits ALL ENTRIES AND EXITS POSTED LIVE ON THE STOCKTWITS FEED
Trade Setup Today :
Intraday 5min Bearish Engulfing Pin Bar at Key Resistance Level on Lower Volume
US Dollar breakout above Prev High and UPCross of Prev Close at 11:10am est
Breakdown below Key Institutional Level : 1218.50 on the Third Hour ( as submitted to Investor Group )
Weak Internals : Financials and the Four Horseman
MACD Bearish Divergence
RSI ( 2 ) Reading : 100- Two Consec. Days
Key Reversal Dates Window
TTT -Sell Short Day : worked like a champ !
Today : Bearish Outside Day and Closed below Friday's Low as expected in Trade Plan
Will Update on this Post. Stay Tune.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
NFPayrolls Report Day -Friday Nov-05- Setups Review
The warm days of scuba diving in the tropical seas are over. Is time to head for the Snow Mountains for some skiing.
The broad market consolidated its strong gains after yesterday’s ( Thursday ) moon shot. A last minute buying spree ( Short Covering Squezze ) just lifted the Dow, which had traded much of the day in the red, to a sixth consecutive gain. The Nasdaq 100 slipped slightly. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 outperformed, gaining nearly 0.4% on a second consecutive day with relatively heavy volume (of 4.68 billion shares). The S&P 500 has now closed above its April 2010 peak; it is the last of the major indexes to do so. The volume on the E-Mini S&P was 8% less than the previous day.
Initial further upside could be limited and give way to a consolidation / modest retracement over the short-term. Broad Markets were mixed to risk adverse during the overnight session.
Similar to yesterday’s market action, today’s trading produced another surplus of proprietary bearish signature clues. I think this could further limit upside potential in the market over the short term. I see more of a flattening out of the current rally and think that there would be only limited further upside, followed soon by a modest pullback.
Many of the US indexes struggled today, with the exception of the S&P 500. Once again, this lack of progress was attributed to the US dollar which was up today, adding 0.9%. The dollar gained on the news that the US non-farm payrolls report for October brought some unexpected strength. Nonfarm payrolls were up by 151,000 while 159,000 private payrolls were added last month (consensus estimates: an increase of 60,000 in each category). However, the unemployment rate remained at 9.6% and the labor market participation rate continued to dwindle (as more and more job seekers give up the search for employment).
The financial sector clearly outperformed today, up 2.1%. Bank stocks did well amid speculation that some of the funds from the Fed’s quantitative easing exercise could soon enable banks to raise their dividends and repurchase shares.
Among other economic data releases, September pending home sales were off 1.8% on a month-over-month comparison (consensus estimate: an increase of 2.5%). September consumer credit came in with a gain of $2.1 billion in September (consensus estimate: a decline in credit of $3.3).
The Fed’s move to a second round of quantitative easing may have boosted the market over the past two days, but it also has its critics, notably on the international stage with policy makers in emerging markets sharply criticizing the move as it could spark a wave of protectionisms and currency tensions. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel has also voiced concerns. Finally, some market commentators point out that if there were a sudden resurgence in economic growth, the Fed’s QE2 program would likely become unnecessary. Good economic news would thus contribute to a potential sell-down in US equities, as the market might fear a withdrawal of stimulus money. The fact that today’s relatively positive jobs numbers did not lead to a greater market rally may be a signal of this issue, one commentator suggested.
Sunday, Globex Session UPDate :
As submitted to Investor Group:
SHORT Swing position from Friday at 1222.50 now in profit + 5.25 pts
Expecting a breakdown of Prev Low
Trade Setup :
60min - MACD Bearish Divergence
RSI ( 2 ) Reading : 100 two cons. days
VIX Count
Other clues as submitted
The broad market consolidated its strong gains after yesterday’s ( Thursday ) moon shot. A last minute buying spree ( Short Covering Squezze ) just lifted the Dow, which had traded much of the day in the red, to a sixth consecutive gain. The Nasdaq 100 slipped slightly. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 outperformed, gaining nearly 0.4% on a second consecutive day with relatively heavy volume (of 4.68 billion shares). The S&P 500 has now closed above its April 2010 peak; it is the last of the major indexes to do so. The volume on the E-Mini S&P was 8% less than the previous day.
Initial further upside could be limited and give way to a consolidation / modest retracement over the short-term. Broad Markets were mixed to risk adverse during the overnight session.
Similar to yesterday’s market action, today’s trading produced another surplus of proprietary bearish signature clues. I think this could further limit upside potential in the market over the short term. I see more of a flattening out of the current rally and think that there would be only limited further upside, followed soon by a modest pullback.
Many of the US indexes struggled today, with the exception of the S&P 500. Once again, this lack of progress was attributed to the US dollar which was up today, adding 0.9%. The dollar gained on the news that the US non-farm payrolls report for October brought some unexpected strength. Nonfarm payrolls were up by 151,000 while 159,000 private payrolls were added last month (consensus estimates: an increase of 60,000 in each category). However, the unemployment rate remained at 9.6% and the labor market participation rate continued to dwindle (as more and more job seekers give up the search for employment).
The financial sector clearly outperformed today, up 2.1%. Bank stocks did well amid speculation that some of the funds from the Fed’s quantitative easing exercise could soon enable banks to raise their dividends and repurchase shares.
Among other economic data releases, September pending home sales were off 1.8% on a month-over-month comparison (consensus estimate: an increase of 2.5%). September consumer credit came in with a gain of $2.1 billion in September (consensus estimate: a decline in credit of $3.3).
The Fed’s move to a second round of quantitative easing may have boosted the market over the past two days, but it also has its critics, notably on the international stage with policy makers in emerging markets sharply criticizing the move as it could spark a wave of protectionisms and currency tensions. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel has also voiced concerns. Finally, some market commentators point out that if there were a sudden resurgence in economic growth, the Fed’s QE2 program would likely become unnecessary. Good economic news would thus contribute to a potential sell-down in US equities, as the market might fear a withdrawal of stimulus money. The fact that today’s relatively positive jobs numbers did not lead to a greater market rally may be a signal of this issue, one commentator suggested.
Sunday, Globex Session UPDate :
As submitted to Investor Group:
SHORT Swing position from Friday at 1222.50 now in profit + 5.25 pts
Expecting a breakdown of Prev Low
Trade Setup :
60min - MACD Bearish Divergence
RSI ( 2 ) Reading : 100 two cons. days
VIX Count
Other clues as submitted
Saturday, November 6, 2010
The Higher it goes the stronger it will FALL
The Illusion of Wealth Continues in America
For all of those who denied the existence of a Plunge Protection Team (PPT) creating the Illusion of Wealth in WALL ST.
It's here. It's real. And it's happening today!
Yes sir, who needs the so-called smoke-filled back rooms of PPT deals when you have the Federal Reserve Board? Who needs to continue the so-called myth of the PPT when the past TWO Chairmen of the Fed openly admit that they are rigging the so-called "free markets" of equities, bonds, and commodities.
Wikipedia says of the PPT..."Plunge Protection Team" was originally the headline for an article in The Washington Post on February 23, 1997, and has since become a colloquial term used by some mainstream publications to refer to the Working Group. Initially, the term was used to express the opinion that the Working Group was being used to prop up the markets during downturns.
Of course, all "right thinking" Americans thought that the very idea of a PPT rigging the market was flat-out unamerican and would therefore never...ever..happen. Ever! Yeah, right!
Let's cut the bullshit shall we? The Fed is rigging the market today, BIG TIME !; there is no doubt about it. There is no need for a PPT run by a president's council when the bankster's mega-banker...the Federal Reserve...run the real version of the PPT. They surely call it another name, but who cares; let's just call it Quantitative Easing for now.
The prior Chairman, The Greenspan-Put, confirmed in late July on Meet the Press what everyone knows: namely that the primary goal of the Fed is to encourage higher stock prices: "If the stock market continues higher it will do more to stimulate the economy than any other measure we have discussed here."
Riiiight... ! the Fed is agnostic on whether the market is affected by its measures...riiiight !. Is that still true even when the CHAIRMAN says that the best thing it can do is stimulate the economy via the STOCK MARKET?
But it doesn't end there. Helicopter-Benron-Backstop Bernanke agrees with The Greenspan-Put: the only thing that matters are the equity markets. These Monetary Duo do not give a damn about your inflation, your deflation, your unemployment ( same as Wall St. ); they only care whether the banksters are happy or not.
That statement above by EZ-Al was made three months ago; however, about three days ago the new Chairman (Bernanke) said - "And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion."
The Fed’s move to a second round of quantitative easing may have boosted the market over the past two days, but it also has its critics, notably on the international stage with policy makers in emerging markets sharply criticizing the move as it could spark a wave of protectionisms and currency tensions. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel has also voiced concerns.
Therefore, Logic and Common Sense ( Let's cut the BULLSHIT ) :
* The stock market is not rising because of good fundamentals. THE STOCK MARKET IS RISING BECAUSE OF THE FOMC.
* The commodity markets are not exploding because of a sudden increase in demand by itself. THE COMMODITY MARKETS ARE RISING ACROSS THE GLOBE THANKS TO THE FOMC.
* The US dollar is not collapsing by itself. THE US CURRENCY IS COLLAPSING BECAUSE OF THE FOMC.
* Gold and Silver are not skyrocketing for no reason. GOLD & SILVER ARE RISING BECAUSE OF THE OUTRIGHT MANIPULATION BY THE FOMC.
* The ENTIRE GLOBE is engaged in active currency debasement for one reason only: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
Please read : http://www.hedgeyeblog.com/2010/11/04/early-look-2/
It is stunning that so many people (at all levels) in this country believe that high consumption levels are paramount to a sustainable economy. The problem with this system is that even now when we are in a weak economy, which was essentially caused by our over-consumption of foreign goods and a lack of domestic investment (ie savings, production, etc.), so many are advocating policies that would only revert the country back to the old system.
Without production and investment an economy will be unable to sustain itself. In the United States, consumption accounts for 70 percent of GDP. Of this 70 percent, over half is spent on services. The U.S. spends 22 percent of consumption on real estate (a dead market) and health care (a high-cost market with low direct economic benefit). Approximately Two thirds of federal expenditures (8 percent of GDP) is spent on the defense budget; total government expenditures make up 20 percent of GDP, with state and local governments spending 12 percent. Bringing up the rear at 16 percent of GDP is private savings and investment. Just to get the ball rolling, let’s throw in the U.S. trade deficit, which reached $816 billion in 2008 (it decreased in 2009 because of the global recession) and is on pace to hit similar levels in 2010.
These numbers paint a bleak picture. As members in a service-based economy the majority of Americans are unable to produce real wealth. American jobs essentially consist of selling and transitioning the sale of foreign goods. The same companies that pay our wages are generating the profits from our consumption. Generally, this is a perfectly acceptable system and exactly the kind of system that sparked such huge growth in America’s golden era. However, the companies paying our wages now are for the most part foreign-owned or internationally financed. Essentially, what Americans are doing is passing around money that is financed and controlled by foreigners, and then using that money to buy more foreign goods. What little wealth that is created from a service economy is sent right back into the hands of foreigners.
For all of those who denied the existence of a Plunge Protection Team (PPT) creating the Illusion of Wealth in WALL ST.
It's here. It's real. And it's happening today!
Yes sir, who needs the so-called smoke-filled back rooms of PPT deals when you have the Federal Reserve Board? Who needs to continue the so-called myth of the PPT when the past TWO Chairmen of the Fed openly admit that they are rigging the so-called "free markets" of equities, bonds, and commodities.
Wikipedia says of the PPT..."Plunge Protection Team" was originally the headline for an article in The Washington Post on February 23, 1997, and has since become a colloquial term used by some mainstream publications to refer to the Working Group. Initially, the term was used to express the opinion that the Working Group was being used to prop up the markets during downturns.
Of course, all "right thinking" Americans thought that the very idea of a PPT rigging the market was flat-out unamerican and would therefore never...ever..happen. Ever! Yeah, right!
Let's cut the bullshit shall we? The Fed is rigging the market today, BIG TIME !; there is no doubt about it. There is no need for a PPT run by a president's council when the bankster's mega-banker...the Federal Reserve...run the real version of the PPT. They surely call it another name, but who cares; let's just call it Quantitative Easing for now.
The prior Chairman, The Greenspan-Put, confirmed in late July on Meet the Press what everyone knows: namely that the primary goal of the Fed is to encourage higher stock prices: "If the stock market continues higher it will do more to stimulate the economy than any other measure we have discussed here."
Riiiight... ! the Fed is agnostic on whether the market is affected by its measures...riiiight !. Is that still true even when the CHAIRMAN says that the best thing it can do is stimulate the economy via the STOCK MARKET?
But it doesn't end there. Helicopter-Benron-Backstop Bernanke agrees with The Greenspan-Put: the only thing that matters are the equity markets. These Monetary Duo do not give a damn about your inflation, your deflation, your unemployment ( same as Wall St. ); they only care whether the banksters are happy or not.
That statement above by EZ-Al was made three months ago; however, about three days ago the new Chairman (Bernanke) said - "And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion."
The Fed’s move to a second round of quantitative easing may have boosted the market over the past two days, but it also has its critics, notably on the international stage with policy makers in emerging markets sharply criticizing the move as it could spark a wave of protectionisms and currency tensions. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel has also voiced concerns.
Therefore, Logic and Common Sense ( Let's cut the BULLSHIT ) :
* The stock market is not rising because of good fundamentals. THE STOCK MARKET IS RISING BECAUSE OF THE FOMC.
* The commodity markets are not exploding because of a sudden increase in demand by itself. THE COMMODITY MARKETS ARE RISING ACROSS THE GLOBE THANKS TO THE FOMC.
* The US dollar is not collapsing by itself. THE US CURRENCY IS COLLAPSING BECAUSE OF THE FOMC.
* Gold and Silver are not skyrocketing for no reason. GOLD & SILVER ARE RISING BECAUSE OF THE OUTRIGHT MANIPULATION BY THE FOMC.
* The ENTIRE GLOBE is engaged in active currency debasement for one reason only: THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
Please read : http://www.hedgeyeblog.com/2010/11/04/early-look-2/
It is stunning that so many people (at all levels) in this country believe that high consumption levels are paramount to a sustainable economy. The problem with this system is that even now when we are in a weak economy, which was essentially caused by our over-consumption of foreign goods and a lack of domestic investment (ie savings, production, etc.), so many are advocating policies that would only revert the country back to the old system.
Without production and investment an economy will be unable to sustain itself. In the United States, consumption accounts for 70 percent of GDP. Of this 70 percent, over half is spent on services. The U.S. spends 22 percent of consumption on real estate (a dead market) and health care (a high-cost market with low direct economic benefit). Approximately Two thirds of federal expenditures (8 percent of GDP) is spent on the defense budget; total government expenditures make up 20 percent of GDP, with state and local governments spending 12 percent. Bringing up the rear at 16 percent of GDP is private savings and investment. Just to get the ball rolling, let’s throw in the U.S. trade deficit, which reached $816 billion in 2008 (it decreased in 2009 because of the global recession) and is on pace to hit similar levels in 2010.
These numbers paint a bleak picture. As members in a service-based economy the majority of Americans are unable to produce real wealth. American jobs essentially consist of selling and transitioning the sale of foreign goods. The same companies that pay our wages are generating the profits from our consumption. Generally, this is a perfectly acceptable system and exactly the kind of system that sparked such huge growth in America’s golden era. However, the companies paying our wages now are for the most part foreign-owned or internationally financed. Essentially, what Americans are doing is passing around money that is financed and controlled by foreigners, and then using that money to buy more foreign goods. What little wealth that is created from a service economy is sent right back into the hands of foreigners.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Day Before the N.F. Payrolls Report - Review
After an initial dip on the FOMC announcement yesterday, ES futures closed higher and, overnight, rallied through strong resistance and the Key Institutional Level, thus invalidating the Reversal Date.
The markets responded to the Fed’s more than tripling of Treasury purchases, which will now funnel about $25 billion per week through the primary dealers and into the markets (after having been levered) beginning late next week, and continuing at least through June 2011. This is enough to be inflationary throughout the economy and, while we were on alert for a sell-the-news reaction over the last week, it clearly did not materialize.
Not surprisingly, the US Dollar is down, and Treasury futures were up, though 30 Year T-Bonds are noticeably lagging. This is purely because of the preference of Fed purchases, which will concentrate in the 2-10 year tenors. Inflation concerns will keep the 30 year yields (and mortgage rates) relatively higher, and will eventually impact the 10 Year similarly. While 10 Year T-Notes should rally initially, a dip in the yield (inverse to price) below 2.0% (and corresponding overshoot of the December 2008 lows) would be a long term short signal in the futures.
Going forward, the most serious impediment to the risk markets will be regarding the currency in which they are denominated. For instance, US equities will sell off when other central banks announce programs to counter US Dollar debasement, or if the Fed starts attempting to sterilize its purchases. There will be some violent shakeouts, but until this happens, we will be in a buy the dips environment. Enjoy the ride while it lasts. The Claims Report was ignored as expected, thus giving more clear evidence that Wall Street never cares about the poor unemployed in Main Street.
The markets responded to the Fed’s more than tripling of Treasury purchases, which will now funnel about $25 billion per week through the primary dealers and into the markets (after having been levered) beginning late next week, and continuing at least through June 2011. This is enough to be inflationary throughout the economy and, while we were on alert for a sell-the-news reaction over the last week, it clearly did not materialize.
Not surprisingly, the US Dollar is down, and Treasury futures were up, though 30 Year T-Bonds are noticeably lagging. This is purely because of the preference of Fed purchases, which will concentrate in the 2-10 year tenors. Inflation concerns will keep the 30 year yields (and mortgage rates) relatively higher, and will eventually impact the 10 Year similarly. While 10 Year T-Notes should rally initially, a dip in the yield (inverse to price) below 2.0% (and corresponding overshoot of the December 2008 lows) would be a long term short signal in the futures.
Going forward, the most serious impediment to the risk markets will be regarding the currency in which they are denominated. For instance, US equities will sell off when other central banks announce programs to counter US Dollar debasement, or if the Fed starts attempting to sterilize its purchases. There will be some violent shakeouts, but until this happens, we will be in a buy the dips environment. Enjoy the ride while it lasts. The Claims Report was ignored as expected, thus giving more clear evidence that Wall Street never cares about the poor unemployed in Main Street.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
FED Day Review
Thursday-Nov-04 UPDate
Last night the Asian markets gave the Fed’s QE2 plan a vote of confidence as stocks rallied and the Dollar slumped to new lows. In Europe, October Services PMI came in a bit better than expected. This added to the pressure on the USD, which in turn is adding to the tailwinds for equities and commodity prices. Round two of QE is bigger than traders were looking for. This should prove to be bullish for commodity prices. It may NOT help economic growth and it raises the odds of inflation down the road and less margins for domestic sales, which are in weak already, except for the Rich, they don't feel anything. This morning US weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, but within the recent range. Tomorrow morning we get the October employment situation report. Traders are raising the bar to estimate a rise of 60K in payrolls after a drop of 95K in September, this will give them an excuse to Sell after all this Election BULLSHIT . Next week has the quarterly refunding auctions and Veteran’s day ( poor people , they won't have a job waiting for them, thanks to the fuckups Republicans ) on Thursday.
Dec. S&P: 1208.00 is the 2010 high basis ESZ; that’s the pivot point for this morning. It looks like tomorrow will have the Sell Short day signal.
Yesterday's election results mean that they won't be getting much help from fiscal policy
The Fed will add another $600 billion to its $1.7 trillion in direct purchases so far this recovery cycle, a little more than expected yet not enough to fire up much enthusiasm. The new purchases will extend through the second quarter next year and if the jobs market doesn't pick up by then, QE3 can be expected given the Fed's promise to monitor progress and adjust the program as needed. The underlying question is whether lower rates will significantly stimulate borrowing and investment. It will probably not because of the weak Real Estate Market will continue and the odvious lack of Fiscal Stimulus that will occur after this elections.
The Dow rose 0.2 percent to 11,215 in mild reaction to the results while the dollar index fell 0.3 percent to 77.07.
Fed purchases will be centered in the middle of the yield curve, not the longer end as many had expected making for slightly lower rates on the short to middle part of the curve and a 12 basis point jump in the 30-year yield to 4.05 percent. Oil rose $1 to $85 while gold slipped slightly to just under $1,350.
Last night the Asian markets gave the Fed’s QE2 plan a vote of confidence as stocks rallied and the Dollar slumped to new lows. In Europe, October Services PMI came in a bit better than expected. This added to the pressure on the USD, which in turn is adding to the tailwinds for equities and commodity prices. Round two of QE is bigger than traders were looking for. This should prove to be bullish for commodity prices. It may NOT help economic growth and it raises the odds of inflation down the road and less margins for domestic sales, which are in weak already, except for the Rich, they don't feel anything. This morning US weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, but within the recent range. Tomorrow morning we get the October employment situation report. Traders are raising the bar to estimate a rise of 60K in payrolls after a drop of 95K in September, this will give them an excuse to Sell after all this Election BULLSHIT . Next week has the quarterly refunding auctions and Veteran’s day ( poor people , they won't have a job waiting for them, thanks to the fuckups Republicans ) on Thursday.
Dec. S&P: 1208.00 is the 2010 high basis ESZ; that’s the pivot point for this morning. It looks like tomorrow will have the Sell Short day signal.
Yesterday's election results mean that they won't be getting much help from fiscal policy
The Fed will add another $600 billion to its $1.7 trillion in direct purchases so far this recovery cycle, a little more than expected yet not enough to fire up much enthusiasm. The new purchases will extend through the second quarter next year and if the jobs market doesn't pick up by then, QE3 can be expected given the Fed's promise to monitor progress and adjust the program as needed. The underlying question is whether lower rates will significantly stimulate borrowing and investment. It will probably not because of the weak Real Estate Market will continue and the odvious lack of Fiscal Stimulus that will occur after this elections.
The Dow rose 0.2 percent to 11,215 in mild reaction to the results while the dollar index fell 0.3 percent to 77.07.
Fed purchases will be centered in the middle of the yield curve, not the longer end as many had expected making for slightly lower rates on the short to middle part of the curve and a 12 basis point jump in the 30-year yield to 4.05 percent. Oil rose $1 to $85 while gold slipped slightly to just under $1,350.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Election Night Trade Target Reached
Long from 1182.25 - 9:31 PM Sunday Oct 31st . Final Target reached at 1196.25. If you were paying attention to Twitter , your profits: +14 pts
Let's ALL Toast to the great comeback of the BUSH years all over AGAIN, Hurraaay ! More Tax Cuts for the Rich stockholders and their Corporations so that they can continue to export US jobs overseas. Same old bullshit.What is good for WALL Street does not have to be for the Unemployed. Very smart America !
Today's Election Day rally was catalyzed primarily by US dollar weakness, market observers suggest. The greenback relinquished 0.7% today in face of a strengthening euro which gained ground following strong eurozone manufacturing data. Giving further impetus for equity market traders to take their cues from US dollar swings was the fact that there were no US economic data releases scheduled for today.
Apart from bringing clarity in regards to the election results, tomorrow will also bring a very crucial Fed meeting which is widely thought to result in further quantitative easing, as discussed here several times over the past few weeks. At this point, the market has likely priced in that QE2 will happen; the discussion are to what extent the market has already priced in a given size / scope of QE2, a minimum of $500 billion according to some economists. The market may further have priced in that Democrats will lose the House; in fact, prediction service Intrade suggests a 95% probability of this occurring. While some observers suggest a political change in Washington will bring fundamental improvements ( very doubfull due to the bad performance of the last Republican Congress ), others suggest the anticipatory rally seen since early September is / was nothing more than a liquidity event manipulated and generated by the Fed for the benefit of the Banksters.
Today's anemic overall volume output reflected uncertainty. Less than a billion shares were traded on the NYSE today. It is apparent that many traders / investors would like to see the outcome of both the elections and the Fed meeting before placing bets. Looking a little further ahead, on Friday, the US government is scheduled to release its monthly jobs report data ( not really important to Wall Street ), another crucial piece of the evolving economic puzzle.
Let's ALL Toast to the great comeback of the BUSH years all over AGAIN, Hurraaay ! More Tax Cuts for the Rich stockholders and their Corporations so that they can continue to export US jobs overseas. Same old bullshit.What is good for WALL Street does not have to be for the Unemployed. Very smart America !
Today's Election Day rally was catalyzed primarily by US dollar weakness, market observers suggest. The greenback relinquished 0.7% today in face of a strengthening euro which gained ground following strong eurozone manufacturing data. Giving further impetus for equity market traders to take their cues from US dollar swings was the fact that there were no US economic data releases scheduled for today.
Apart from bringing clarity in regards to the election results, tomorrow will also bring a very crucial Fed meeting which is widely thought to result in further quantitative easing, as discussed here several times over the past few weeks. At this point, the market has likely priced in that QE2 will happen; the discussion are to what extent the market has already priced in a given size / scope of QE2, a minimum of $500 billion according to some economists. The market may further have priced in that Democrats will lose the House; in fact, prediction service Intrade suggests a 95% probability of this occurring. While some observers suggest a political change in Washington will bring fundamental improvements ( very doubfull due to the bad performance of the last Republican Congress ), others suggest the anticipatory rally seen since early September is / was nothing more than a liquidity event manipulated and generated by the Fed for the benefit of the Banksters.
Today's anemic overall volume output reflected uncertainty. Less than a billion shares were traded on the NYSE today. It is apparent that many traders / investors would like to see the outcome of both the elections and the Fed meeting before placing bets. Looking a little further ahead, on Friday, the US government is scheduled to release its monthly jobs report data ( not really important to Wall Street ), another crucial piece of the evolving economic puzzle.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)


