Update on Open Position from August 31st

Long from 1054.25 , August 31st :

Open profits : + 73.25 Points

$ 3,662.50 per contract

Friday, Sept 17

" It's About Jobs Stupid "

Watching CNBC this morning, just heard this phrase from a Guest named Bernie Marcus.

This guest either suffers from Selective Amnesia ,

amnesia about particular events that is very convenient for the person who cannot remember, or he is just a pathological liar, either way it is a self serving attitude.

My responce to this guy : It is the Jobs Stupid . The undisputed historical facts are that it was the trade policies of the republican administrations that gave away millions of jobs to the Chinese Communists.

It is the Jobs STUPID : It is the jobs that were NOT created during the Bush Administration.

the fact is that the Bush years -- which were full of across-the-board tax cuts -- turned out to be the weakest eight-year span for the U.S. economy in decades.

It is Jobs STUPID : It is the lack of jobs that the American soldiers returning home will not have if the Republicans take over Congress, STUPID !

Republicans — and some Democrats — want to make all the tax cuts permanent or at least to extend them as long as the economy remains fragile. They fear that a tax increase would hurt the economic recovery.

Well, we all know that neither of those is going to happen. Republicans won't abandon their wealthiest donors to help out everyone else. The GOP will continue to block extension of tax cuts for the middle class unless the rich get theirs too.

So either all the Bush tax cuts will expire unless the Democrats cave and extend all of them. Of course extending tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans (those with incomes in excess of $200,000 for individuals or $250,000 for families) will only increase future deficits more, but that won't stop Republicans from claiming the deficit is all the fault of Democrats and "entitlement programs" (you know, Social Security and Medicare which are subject to a separate, regressive tax).

As for spending, thanks in large part to the costs of our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, deficits will remain high (and no, our involvement in Iraq isn't over when you still have 50,000 US troops there). The companies that make bullets, bombs and drones and electrocute soldier in showers (Hi KBR!) will continue to do well, but everyone else will suffer from lack of spending.

Without some easing of credit for small business or government investment in rebuilding and modernizing our infrastructure (updating the electrical grid so that it loses less electricity, spending on or tax credits for new green technologies like wind and solar, fixing bridges and roads, investing in education, transportation, etc.) new jobs will be hard to come by.

The Democratic campaigns for the Fall should be be emphasizing that we are falling behind other developed nations because we refuse to INVEST in the infrastructure and new technologies that will secure more jobs now and better paying jobs in the future.

However, it seems the Dems are falling into the GOP trap of having the debate over the Bush tax cuts for the rich and corporate welfare that allows jobs to be outsourced overseas which we know failed to generate job growth in the past

Three million piddling jobs created in 8 years during the Bush Administration? ( Wall Street Journal article )

Remember, this came during a time when Bush increased government spending to private companies and to pay for our massive wars in the Middle East. It was the worst job creation during an economic recovery (from the recession created after the Tech stock bubble burst in 2000) ever. So why on God's Green Earth would any Democrat talk about tax cuts as being the panacea to our nation's job woes?

Every time a Republican says tax cuts create jobs a Democrat should be waving that Wall Street Journal article in his or her face. Every time they say we need to extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans we should be saying that isn't going to create jobs for the unemployed because the record proves it. Bush's job creation didn't even keep up with the rise in the workforce population.

In addition, during the halcycon years of the Bush tax cuts, 8.3 MILLION more people fell below the poverty line during his eight years. Median incomes fell from $52,500 at the end of 2000 (Clinton's last year)to an inflation adjusted $50,303 in 2008 That's a drop of 4.2 per cent.

So who benefited from the tax cuts? Not people who needed jobs, not most workers, not poor people. No, the people who most benefited from the tax cuts were MILLIONAIRES and BILLIONAIRES

So why are Democrats still talking about tax cuts? Eight years of tax cuts and Republican mismanagement cost us jobs, made health care more expensive or unavailable for more Americans, substantially increased poverty and lowered incomes for most Americans. That's the message Democrats should be speaking out about loudly and clearly at every campaign stop and in every speech and in every ad they run this year.

Precision Low-Risk Entry-WINS

Third Hour Long entry at key level,

Stop Loss : 2 ticks

Do not try this unless you know the Institutional Levels.

Another Low Risk Trade-Wins

Very Low Risk as in Precision Entry , Only Two ticks STOP Loss.

Pre-Open Breakout Trade-Wins Again

Final target filled at 1110 for + 7 points gain per contract.

My subscribers must be very happy.

Previous Open position : Long from 1050

Weekly View Assesment of The Trend

What matters for equities is earnings and not GDP growth. US GDP growth projections are being cut, but earnings projections have been little affected so far. Investors and analysts are hoping that, to the extent the soft patch in US GDP growth lasts for only a few quarters ( and who cares about the part time workers without benefits ) and does not spillover to the rest of the world, US companies will be able to protect their revenues and profits (thanks to the Republicans ). Indeed, this is what happened during 2Q, when US companies were able to deliver strong top line and EPS growth even as US GDP grew at only a 1% pace.

The macro picture has deteriorated in recent months, but it has not collapsed. This has reduced the margin for error in terms of corporate earnings.

The market has been volatile, but it has remained resilient because we just aren’t seeing the weakness in corporate earnings. Persistent macro weakness and a few more earnings seasons will likely change that as corporations move to adjust expectations heading into a more difficult environment and the analysts subsequently play catch-up.

The Bulls saved the collapse on low volume this summer and the Bearish Head and Shoulders is in question.

Political comments by CNBC Analysts are in agreement that Investors and Corporate leaders are in a " nervous " mood. What the don't tell the public and viewers is that the majority of these people are republicans or independent high net worth individuals that never voted for this President and all they care for is lowering their taxes. CNBC maintains a republican bias and advocates a self serving anti-democratic view and anti-social-economic equality for many years, and that is odvious to anyone watching this channel. The obssesion with the Bush Tax Cuts continues in CNBC.

Payrolls Day Review

Not a bad day . Four winners before the Open plus 6 more during the Day Session. Plus a winning Open Position.

As with the Manufacturing PMI report, however, the details point to a far less rosy picture than the headline figure and market reaction suggest ;

Aggregate hours worked were flat.

All the employment gains were part-time — full-time employment, as per the Household Survey, plunged 254,000.

Those working part-time for “economic reasons” surged 331,000 — the biggest increase in six months.

While private payrolls were better than expected, 10,000 of that +67,000 tally reflected returning construction workers who had been on strike.

Manufacturing employment was down 27,000 and total goods producing jobs were flat — hardly signs of a robust economic backdrop.

The diffusion index for private payrolls actually fell to 53.0 from 56.7 in July — a seven-month low. It was 68.0 at the April high, which is consistent with an economy slowing down to stall-speed.

The labor market gap widened with the all-inclusive U6 unemployment rate rising to a four-month high of 16.7% from 16.5% in July. This is why the odds are stacked against a sustained acceleration in wages.

Keep in mind that markets did not have much time to digest the US jobs reports Friday before markets closed, and could well take back gains next week upon reflection on the above details. Volumes in the stock market rallies were exceptionally thin, further undermining out belief in the rally.

Wishing all of you a wonderful Labor Day Weekend. If you have a full time job with benefits, consider yourself very lucky and enjoy it before the Chinese Communists take it away, complements of our Republicans politicians under pressure from their Corporate constituents( a.k.a Free Trade Bullshit Continues).

Labor Day Trade Wins Again

Long from 1054.25 , Open Position Gain + 49.25 points per contract:

My Subscribers were alerted to this High Probability / Low Risk Trade and now they are enyoing the fruits of their labor.

There is a tendency for the first day of the month to be higher. Seven of the last 9 first days have been up. The first day of the month is when a lot of new capital is available for investment.

It closed the month of August 10.75% above the low for the month. I have found that when we close in the bottom 20% of the range for the month, the next two months have a tendency to be up.

There were other clues that made this trade succesfull. August 31st was an NR6 , Daily Doji and that sets up another low risk breakout trade.