Another great day

Great trading for today. Total Profits in three different Markets : $3,360

Swing Dynamics On The First Hour

Here is an example of the first Hour of trading in the E-Mini S&P when the swings are the wildest and most volatile and there is no discernable trend for about 1 hour and 20 minutes. Then the price action begins to give clues of direction after the third swing high and that is the best time to initiate a Low Risk Entry.

This trade was good for + 4.5 Points

ES Emini trade set ups that anyone can do and follow

The key to being a successful trader is to have a solid trading plan and a set up that you are confident in taking knowing you have high odds of it being successful and that you can repeat over and over again.

Notice the separation of the Blue and Yellow Trend lines which indicates the Momentum of price action going UP without the need for additional Indicators.The direction of the trendlines is in line with the Long Entry, giving the high confidence to stay with the trend.

If the Long Entry was taken at the High of the circled Bar:

The trade in this example would have profited +2.5 Pts at the First Target and +4.25 Pts at the Second Target for a Total of +8.25 Points or $412.50 per contract.

Weekly Trendlines And The Trend

Here is a comparison of the Weekly in 2003 when the downtrend started to turn to the upside and the current Trend. It is very clear that there is much more that needs to happen before the change in Trend occurred. The Green Trend Line has stalled the Market this week.

Sell Signal In T-Bonds 30yr Futures

Daily Bearish Signal in the ZBZ9 Contract means that the S&P will reverse if the T-Bonds fall. It may happen on Tuesday of next week. Also there is an 86% chance of a reversal for the SPX after it decline the last 2 days of a quarter.This suggests a decent upside edge for the next couple of days. Stay Tune.

The government's much feared 'jobs report' was released today and it brought a dose of bad news. According to the Labor Department, 263,000 jobs were lost in September, far more than the 180,000 job losses economists had been expecting. The US unemployment rate meanwhile swelled to 9.8% (from 9.7% a month earlier). Despite the significant amount of talk in the mainstream press about the end of the recession having arrived, the dynamics of the job market remain quite disturbing and may put the entire recovery scenario into question. Not only is the rate of workers being laid off not abating, the pace at which companies are hiring is also at almost historical lows.

Market commentators point out that even though consumer spending has steadily improved over the past few months, such gains will not be sustainable over the long term in the face of such poor jobs numbers, and also because they are largely based on temporary government incentives (such as the popular Cash for Clunkers program).

Not only are more Americans relying on unemployment contributions than ever before in the post-war era, but they are also staying unemployed for a more extended period of time. For instance, of the total officially unemployed population, the percentage of those who can be classified as 'long term unemployed' has now reached 36% (in contrast, after the recession of the 1980s, that number had peaked at close to 25%).

Finally, among those who are working, another new post-war record has been reached, with the average workweek now down to 33 hours. Meanwhile, over 9 million people are working part-time due to economic reasons; this is also a very high number.

Long from 1013

Here is today's trading performance on three different Markets: EURO, Crude Oil and E-Mini S&P

As previously posted the Buy Signal Entry at the Fibonacci Cluster was executed this morning
after the negative reaction to the Unemployment Report:

Long @ POC ( 09/04) 1013 Target : 1024.50 VAL was Filled for +11.5 Points Profits or $ 575 per contract. Notice how the Low Of the Day ( LOD) was only one point below the Sept 4th POC.

Market Timing Strategy BUY Signal

Because of the Payrolls Report tomorrow, the Buy Signal Entry will be dependent upon the reaction to this very important key report.Stay tune.

The fourth quarter began on a strongly bearish note. The mainstream press reports that stocks were pounded (suffering their worst one-day loss in some three months) primarily because of two weak economic reports released today.

Although the market appeared to have stabilized somewhat in the afternoon, investors' fear of a poor jobs report being released tomorrow pummeled the indexes again late in the session, exacerbating the declines. The recent market weakness (five or six red sessions over the course of the seven last trading days) simply illustrates how frail the rally has become, given that the market has been climbing almost nonstop since March.

According to the Labor Department, last week saw a rise in new claims for jobless benefits. That number swelled to 551,000, higher than the 535,000 new claims economists had been expecting. Also released today was new data from the Institute for Supply Management on the pace of manufacturing activity in September. Here, too, investors were disappointed as the index that tracks manufacturing activity declined rather than advanced, thereby contradicting analysts' expectations. The most recent batch of economic data has come in below expectations, a change of pace from the previously steadily improving data that surfaced over a number of weeks.

This reminds investors that economic recoveries can be slow and painful. Other examples of economic reports that came in below expectations recently include data on consumer confidence and on manufacturing activity in the Midwest. Additional, and more positive, economic news was released today. According to the Commerce Department, in August consumer spending increased by the largest amount in close to eight years, in spite of the fact that personal income growth has lagged. Some analysts however doubted this increase would be sustainable, as at least some of the noted increase in spending was attributed to the government's Cash for Clunkers program. Finally, the National Association of Realtors announced that in August, pending home sales were up by more than 6% (as compared to July).

Finished in First Place in the International Trading Tournament Series by Strategy Runner held today.